Mathematically optimal decisions in forensic age assessment

Forensic age estimation generally involves considerable amounts of uncertainty. Forensic age indicators such as teeth or skeleton images predict age only approximately, and this is likely to remain true even for future forensic age indicators. Thus, forensic age assessment should aim to make the best possible decisions under uncertainty. In this paper, we apply mathematical theory to make statistically optimal decisions to age assessment. Such an application is fairly straightforward assuming there is a standardized procedure for obtaining age indicator information from individuals, assuming we have data from the application of this procedure to a group of persons with known ages, and assuming the starting point for each individual is a probability distribution describing prior knowledge about the persons age. The main problem is then to obtain such a prior. Our analysis indicates that individual priors rather than a common prior for all persons may be necessary. We suggest that caseworkers, based on individual case information, may select a prior from a menu of priors. We show how information may then be collected over time to gradually increase the robustness of the decision procedure. We also show how replacing individual prior distributions for age with individual prior odds for being above an age limit cannot be recommended as a general method. Our theoretical framework is applied to data where the maturity of the distal femur and the third molar is observed using MRI. As part of this analysis we observe a weak positive conditional correlation between maturity of the two body parts.

     

Long-Term Clinical Outcomes after Endovascular Therapy for Anti-Centromere Antibody-Positive Patients with Critical Limb-Threatening Ischemia

PurposeTo examine the long-term clinical outcomes of patients with anti-centromere antibody (ACA)-positive critical limb-threatening ischemia (CLTI) who were treated with endovascular therapy (EVT).Materials and MethodsThis was a retrospective analysis using a database of 423 consecutive CLTI patients (543 limbs, Rutherford class 4–6) who underwent EVT between January 2011 and March 2013. The patients were divided into 2 groups: an ACA-positive group (10 limbs, 8 patients) and a control group (46 limbs, 43 patients). The control group was defined as female, non-dialysis, and those who were able to obtain a below-knee angiogram.ResultsNone of the 8 ACA-positive CLTI patients had previously been diagnosed as ACA positive. No significant difference was observed in the below-the-knee lesion distribution and severity between the ACA-positive group and the control group. The median observational period was 51 months. The survival rate was 54% in the ACA-positive group and 76% in the control group at 5 years after EVT (P = .732). The freedom from major amputation rate was 60% in the ACA-positive group and 91% in the control group at 5 years after EVT (P = .029). The technical EVT success rate in the ACA-positive group was 70% (7/10). Of the successful EVT cases, 71% (5/7) of patients achieved complete wound healing or rest pain relief; however, 60% (3/5) had a recurrence of wounds.ConclusionsIn a series of ACA-positive patients with CLTI, successful EVT had acceptable outcomes with respect to wound healing with short-term results. However, the major amputation rate for ACA-positive patients was high in long-term follow-up.     

Treatment Satisfaction of Men and Partners Following Switch from On‐Demand Phosphodiesterase Type 5 Inhibitor Therapy to Tadalafil 5 mg Once Daily

IntroductionTreatment satisfaction of men receiving phosphodiesterase 5 inhibitors (PDE5) for erectile dysfunction (ED) and their partners is essential to successful long‐term therapy.AimThis study aims to assess treatment satisfaction, in men with a partial response to on‐demand (PRN) PDE5 and their female partners, following tadalafil 5 mg once daily or placebo.MethodsThe study was randomized, double‐blind, parallel, and placebo‐controlled in men primarily with mild to moderate ED. Treatment satisfaction was assessed following a 4‐week maximum dose PRN lead‐in, 4‐week nondrug washout, and treatment through 12 weeks. Men were ≥18 years old with ED for ≥3 months and International Index of Erectile Function Erectile Function score of ≥17 and <26 at screening and <26 following PRN lead‐in.Main Outcome MeasuresTreatment satisfaction was assessed using the Treatment Satisfaction Scale (TSS) for patients and partners. TSS domain scores range from 0 to 100, with higher values indicating greater satisfaction. Statistical comparisons were made using analysis of covariance.ResultsTreatment satisfaction was significantly greater with tadalafil once daily vs. placebo across all TSS domains for both patients and their partners (all P < 0.001). For patients, mean scores for the TSS domains Confidence to Complete Sexual Activity and Satisfaction with Orgasm ranged from 53.7 to 57.8 after the PRN lead‐in and 26.7 to 31.9 following the nondrug washout. Following randomized treatment, scores for tadalafil and placebo were 55.4 and 32.6, respectively, for Confidence to Complete Sexual Activity and 57.5 and 37.9, respectively, for Satisfaction with Orgasm. Results were comparable for other TSS domains and between men and their partners.ConclusionsTreatment satisfaction was comparable for tadalafil 5 mg once daily and PRN PDE5 for both patients and female partners, suggesting that tadalafil once daily is a viable therapy option for men with ED who had a partial response to PRN PDE5 therapy. Burns PR, Rosen RC, Dunn M, Baygani SK, and Perelman MA. Treatment satisfaction of men and partners following switch from on‐demand phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitor therapy to tadalafil 5 mg once daily. J Sex Med 2015;12:720–727.     

12-year survival analysis of 322 Hintegra total ankle arthroplasties from an independent center

Background and purpose — Total ankle arthroplasties (TAAs) have larger revision rates than hip and knee implants. We examined the survival rates of our primary TAAs, and what different factors, including the cause of arthritis, affect the success and/or revision rate.Patients and methods — From 2004 to 2016, 322 primary Hintegra TAAs were implanted: the 2nd generation implant from 2004 until mid-2007 and the 3rd generation from late 2007 to 2016. A Cox proportional hazards model evaluated sex, age, primary diagnosis, and implant generation, pre- and postoperative angles and implant position as risk factors for revision.Results — 60 implants (19%) were revised, the majority (n = 34) due to loosening. The 5-year survival rate (95% CI) was 75% (69–82) and the 10-year survival rate was 68% (60–77). There was a reduced risk of revision, per degree of increased postoperative medial distal tibial angle at 0.84 (0.72–0.98) and preoperative talus angle at 0.95 (0.90–1.00), indicating that varus ankles may have a larger revision rate. Generation of implant, sex, primary diagnosis, and most pre- and postoperative radiological angles did not statistically affect revision risk.Interpretation — Our revision rates are slightly above registry rates and well above those of the developer. Most were revised due to loosening; no difference was demonstrated with the 2 generations of implant used. Learning curve and a low threshold for revision could explain the high revision rate.

Arthritis in the ankle often develops earlier than in the hip or knee, and 70% have a traumatic etiology (Saltzman et al. 2005, Brown et al. 2006). Total ankle arthroplasty (TAA) can be indicated for severe arthritis in the ankle joint, but the anatomical preconditions, like a small surface area and high stress from compression and torque (Bouguecha et al. 2011, Kakkar and Siddique 2011), makes it less durable than hip and knee prosthetics. The Hintegra TAA, a 3-component mobile bearing, uncemented implant (Hintermann et al. 2004) is widely used and results from the development center demonstrate survival rates of 94% and 84% after 5 and 10 years’ follow-up (Barg et al. 2013). This is considerably more than the survival rates from national registries. Labek et al. (2011) demonstrated that development centers report only half of the revision rate that can be found in the few existing national registers. In a systematic review of primary Agility total ankle arthroplasty (DePuy Synthes Orthopedics, Warsaw, IN, USA), the author (Roukis 2012) found that the incidence of complications increased from 7% to 12%, in studies where the inventor was excluded. Similar results were found by Prissel and Roukis (2013), who found an increased incidence of complications from 6% to 13% in studies where the inventor or faculty consultants were excluded. These studies indicated the risk of selection (inventor) and publication (conflict of interest) bias.Planning and surgical technique, including significant experience, are mandatory for a successful outcome. The better result from development centers may reflect, besides the above-mentioned bias, that there is a long learning curve and that the indication for revision surgery varies.We examined the survival rates of primary Hintegra TAAs performed at Hvidovre Hospital, with revision rate as outcome. We report primary diagnosis for primary TAA and examine whether sex, generation of the implant, preoperative angles and implant position affect the revision rate.     

Periodontal CGRP contributes to orofacial pain following experimental tooth movement in rats

Calcitonin-related gene peptide (CGRP) plays an important role in orofacial inflammatory pain. The aim of this study was to determine whether periodontal CGRP contributes to orofacial pain induced by experimental tooth movement in rats. Male Sprague–Dawley rats were used in this study. Closed coil springs were used to deliver forces. Rats were euthanized on 0 d, 1 d, 3 d, 5 d, 7 d, and 14 d following experimental tooth movement. Then, alveolar bones were obtained for immunostaining of periodontal tissues against CGRP. Two hours prior to euthanasia on each day, orofacial pain levels were assessed through rat grimace scale. CGRP and olcegepant (CGRP receptor antagonist) were injected into periodontal tissues to verify the roles of periodontal CGRP in orofacial pain induced by experimental tooth movement. Periodontal CGRP expression levels and orofacial pain levels were elevated on 1 d, 3 d, 5 d, and 7 d following experimental tooth movement. The two indices were significantly correlated with each other and fitted into a dose–response model. Periodontal administration of CGRP could elevate periodontal CGRP expressions and exacerbate orofacial pain. Moreover, olcegepant administration could decrease periodontal CGRP expressions and alleviate orofacial pain. Therefore, periodontal CGRP plays an important role in pain transmission and modulation following experimental tooth movement. We suggest that it may participate in a positive feedback aiming to amplify orofacial pain signals.