Statistical Considerations in Identifying Mechanisms of Change

The statistical search for mechanisms of change involves multiple inferential tests, ones that generally follow a fixed sequence designed to demonstrate mediation. While there are several popular approaches to conducting such tests, e.g., SEM and MRA, the inflated Type I error rate problem associated with conducting these tests has received little, if any, attention. This paper offers 2 solutions to avoid committing Type I errors associated with mediational tests. Most straightforward, investigators may choose to use a Bonferroni adjustment. In contrast, a design-based approach can be used that tests rival explanations for the observed effects. Examples drawn from addiction research are provided.     

Medical problem solving and uncertainty in the emergency department

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To compare the diagnostic processes of experienced emergency physicians with those of novices. DESIGN: Prospective, convenience sample of patients. SETTING: Emergency department of a county university medical center in a large southwestern urban community. PARTICIPANTS: Experienced emergency physicians (attending and senior residents) and novice clinicians (junior residents and senior medical students). INTERVENTIONS: Participants developed initial diagnostic impressions after reviewing the chief complaint, nurse triage notes, and vital signs. Tests were then selected, and a final diagnostic impression was identified after results were known. Clinicians also marked a visual analog scale corresponding to their estimate that each diagnostic possibility was correct. RESULTS: Experienced physicians increased their certainty more than novices (P = .014). They deviated from a standard history-physical-laboratory sequence more often than novices (P = .008). CONCLUSION: Expertise in medical decision making is characterized by a moderate initial level of certainty concerning a diagnosis that significantly increases as the experienced clinician follows a flexible strategy of testing to arrive at a final diagnosis.     

Transperineal percutaneous iridium-192 interstitial template implant of the prostate: results and complications in 321 patients.

A total of 321 patients with localized adenocarcinoma of the prostate treated by modified pelvic lymphadenectomy, Iridium-192 implant, and external beam iridium radiation were retrospectively reviewed. Analysis covered 8 years between 1981 and 1989 with a median population age of 72 (range 42 through 82 years). Disease-free survival for the entire group is 69% at 5 years with a median follow-up of 34 months (range 1.5 months to 98.5 months). As expected, both bulkier disease and positive nodal status adversely affected 5-year disease-free survival (p = 0.0001 for both). For tumors stage T1b (A2), T2a (B1), T2b (B2), T3 (C) the disease-free survival is 89.5%, 89.9%, 64.7%, and 48.8%, respectively; for NO disease 5-year disease-free survival is 76.5% versus N1/N2 disease with 5-year disease-free survival of 33.2%. Local control was excellent except for bulkier disease (p = 0.009). Tumors T1b, T2a, T2b, and T3 have 60-month local control rates of 95%, 93%, 83.6%, and 73.1%, respectively. Histologic grade also affected disease-free survival and local control with grade 1, grade 2, grade 3 showing 81.2%, 65.7%, and 45.1% disease-free survival at 5 years; and 93.6%, 82.2%, and 72.4% local control at 5 years. Estimates obtained using Kaplan-Meier method. Radiation induced morbidity was analyzed separately for all patients, there were 41 patients (13% of total) with 54 documented complications. There were no Grade 4 or 5 complications as per RTOG categories. Only 3 cases showed grade 3 complications (1%) and 51 cases showed grade 2 complications (15.9%). Grade 1 complications were not recorded. Of the grade 2 and grade 3 complications 30 were GU and 22 were rectal. The morbidity associated with combined interstitial implantation by transperineal percutaneous template and external beam iridium radiation for the localized prostate cancer is minimal with excellent local control and disease-free survival.     

Does Epidural Analgesia Affect the Rate of Spontaneous Obstetric Lacerations in Normal Births?

The precise relationship between epidural use and genital tract lacerations in normal childbirth is unclear. Data from a clinical trial on measures to lower genital tract trauma in vaginal birth were used for a secondary analysis. The goal was to assess whether epidurals affect the rate of spontaneous obstetric lacerations in normal vaginal births. Maternal characteristics and intrapartum variables were compared in women who did and did not use an epidural in labor, and also in those with and without any sutured lacerations following vaginal birth. Variables that were statistically different in both cases were entered into regression equations for simultaneous adjustment. Epidural use was not an independent predictor of sutured lacerations. Predictors of sutured lacerations included nulliparity, a prolonged second stage, being non-Hispanic white, and an infant birthweight greater than 4000 grams. Elements of midwifery management need further research.     

Tribal differences in diabetes: prevalence among American Indians in New Mexico.

The prevalence of diagnosed diabetes among American Indians in New Mexico with varied genetic and cultural backgrounds is reported. Utilizing community-based registries, the prevalence in persons ages 35 years and older ranged from 9.8 percent among Jicarilla Apache Indians to 28.2 percent among Zuni Indians. All rates were significantly higher than the U.S. rate of 5.3 percent for the same age group. In addition, in three of the five tribal groups examined, the rates of diagnosed diabetes in Indians less than 35 years of age (range from 0.5 percent to 1.3 percent) were significantly higher than the U.S. rate of 0.4 percent for the same age group. The prevalence rates of diagnosed diabetes found in this study of American Indians in New Mexico were intermediate between those for the United States as a whole and the Pima Indians of southern Arizona. Reasons for the variations and the relative contribution of obesity, fitness, or genetic risk in the development of diabetes need further study.     

Mycetoma of the calf

 Actinomycetous infections typically involve either the head and neck or the extremities following a traumatic implantation. Classic clinical associations are draining sinus tracts. This case report describes the pathologic and MR findings of a relatively acute mycetomatous process involving the soft tissues. Pathologic findings in this case included an occasional granule composed of gram positive, thin branching elements. These and other findings were consistent with actinomycetes bacterium infection. The discussion centers around the use of MR, both with and without gadolinium, in evaluating this type of granulomatous infection. Infiltration of the adjacent subcutaneous tissues was easier to appreciate on both the T1-weighted images without gadolinium and the T1-weighted images with gadolinium when compared to the T2-weighted images. Signal characteristics as described in this case report may suggest a granulomatous process.     

Melioidosis. Forgotten, but not gone!

Melioidosis, infection by the soil bacterium Pseudomonas pseudomallei, has the potential for prolonged latency with recrudescence into an acute, often fulminating, and fatal infection. Although the organism is never found in North America, infection is endemic in areas of southeast Asia, and populations of service personnel exposed during the Vietnam war and southeast Asian immigrants are at risk of severe recrudescent disease. Diagnosis, however, has been missed or delayed because of lack of familiarity with this disease. We present a case of recrudescent melioidosis that illustrates the difficulties encountered in diagnosis and treatment. This case involves a 76-year-old Vietnam veteran who presented with melioidosis of the bone 18 years after exposure to the organism and 10 years after a missed diagnosis of latent pulmonary disease. This case illustrates the protean nature of latent infection and the difficulty of selecting successful antibiotic therapy.