Predictive power of various models for longitudinal attachment level change

Abstract Several statistical models that have been suggested in the periodontal literature for describing longitudinal attachment level changes, such as the gradual loss, single-burst, multiple-burst, and random walk models as well as other models introduced in this paper are compared by their power to predict future attachment loss. The data used in this analysis is from 1061 sites of 8 subjects, with moderate to severe periodontal disease, monitored monthly for about a year. This study found that none of the suggested models could significantly outperform the naive mean predictor, which predicts the future attachment level from the past mean. It was also found that no single model, such as the burst, gradual, or random walk, together with measurement error can fully explain the variation in the data. These results indicate that in the course of one year, the attachment level change may not follow the same model. Consequently, a model that fits well to past data cannot be accurately extended to the future.     

Determination of rate-constants as a method to describe passive expiration

To describe the relaxed expiration by a two-compartment model, we introduced a gas/energy transfer between the lung compartment (V₁) and a second one (V₂). If V₂ were a real volume, the rate-constants (i.e. the flow/volume ratios) of the compartments would describe a real gas-exchange. Alternatively, if a viscoelastic behaviour of the lung or an energy-exchange between compartments was simulated, V₂ would become a "pseudo-volume". We studied nine mechanically ventilated subjects. Changes in volume were transduced by respiratory inductive plethysmography. The rate-constants were assumed (together with the initial volumes of the compartments) as parameters to fit the total volume [V₁(t)+V₂(t)]. Once the best fitting was performed using these "physiological" parameters, the system was directly identified and the compartments were independently analysed. The time profile of the second compartment showed a maximum that depended on the value of the rate-constants. Appropriate tests confirmed the reliability of our procedure. In conclusion, our analysis demonstrated that the energy/volume of the second compartment may increase at the beginning of expiration and then decrease, showing a maximum, even though the total curve can only be a decreasing one. In other words, the slowing down of the curve representing expiratory volume is due not only to the longer emptying of the second compartment, but also to the interaction between the two compartments. As presently proposed, this interaction can be represented by either a gas exchange between two actual volumes, or a mechanical energy transfer between the lung and the tissue compartment.     

The Compliance Curve for the Flow Limiting Segments of the Airway

Maximum effort flow-static recoil curves were obtained in 5 healthy subjects breathing air, He/O₂, and SF₆/O₂ mixtures. In 4 of them maximum effort flows corresponded to really maximal flows and their curves were transformed into compliance curves for the flow limiting segments of the airway and analyzed from the point of view of a previously presented lung model (Pedersen and Nielsen 1976). The results showed, that viscosity dependent pressure losses from the alveoli to the flow limiting segments were minimal for air and SF₆/O₂, but not for He/O₂. When viscosity dependent pressure losses could be neglected, then expiration of gases of different densities gave almost identical compliance curves for the flow limiting segments. This supported the applicability of the model. The calculated compliance curves for the flow limiting segments were compared with data from the literature, and the findings indicated that flow limitation during expirations with just maximal flows throughout began in the extrapulmonary airways and moved upstream during the expiration.     

College student attitudes toward forcible date rape: I. Cognitive predictors

Students completed a questionnaire measuring acceptance of forcible date rape, attitudes toward women, sexual knowledge, sexual experience, tolerance of socially unapproved sexual behavior, and religiosity. Findings suggested that persons relatively more accepting of forcible date rape are less sure it really is rape, have more traditional attitudes toward women, are more selfsexually permissive (i.e., more tolerant of their own socially unapproved of sexual behavior, such as premarital and extramarital sex with friends or casual acquaintances), have less accurate sexual knowledge and, though a large majority blame the male, are slightly more inclined than others to blame society or the situation. These predictor variables accounted for 35% of the variance in attitudes toward forcible date rape and identified correctly about two-thirds of the students classified as nonrejectors of forcible date rape, i.e., those who did not consider the male's behavior definitely unacceptable under any one of nine circumstances, including He spent a lot of money on her. In addition to the emotional and personality variables often cited in rapists, the cognitive predictor variables found may be salient to understanding the etiology of rape.This paper was first presented at meetings of the Society for the Scientific Study of Sex, September 1985, in San Diego, California.     

延期妊娠并发羊水过少对母婴的影响96例临床观察

目的 探讨延期妊娠并发羊水过少对母婴的影响。方法 采用回顾性分析方法,对延期妊娠分娩的产妇羊水正常组244例及羊水过少组96例进行对比分析。结果 羊水过少组中羊水Ⅱ度以上粪染、胎盘成熟Ⅲ^ 级及胎盘钙化、胎儿宫内窘迫、新生儿窒息率、产后出血率及剖宫产率明显高于羊水正常组。结论 羊水过少是胎儿宫内慢性缺氧最敏感的特异性指标,无论是延期妊娠还是过期妊娠一经确珍,应积极引产,估计短时间内不能分娩,宜行剖宫产结束妊娠。     

基于“病-药-量”探讨《中华医典》含竹沥中药方剂相应规律的数据挖掘

目的 分析《中华医典》中含有竹沥中药方剂“病-药-量”的相应规律,为竹沥的临床诊疗应用及深入研发提供参考。方法 收集整理《中华医典》中含有竹沥的中药方剂,录入Excel 2016构建临证方药数据库,对其病症、证型、药物使用频次、功效类别、性味归经、剂型及用量等进行统计分析,运用SPSS Statistics 22.0、IBM SPSS Modeler 18.0软件进行关联规则、聚类分析等数据挖掘。结果 共收集含竹沥方剂349首,主治病证分类共99种,其中高频病证（≥20次）主要为“中风”“痰饮”“咳嗽”,治疗“中风”证型以风痰瘀阻为主,“痰饮”以饮停胃肠为主,“咳嗽”以痰热郁肺为主;组方中使用频次≥50次的药物有19味,使用频次较高的有生姜、甘草、茯苓、陈皮等,药物功效种类以化痰止咳平喘药、补虚药、清热药为主;药性使用频次最高的为寒性药,其次为温性药,药味多选用甘、苦、辛味,药物归经以脾、胃、心经为主;高频病症剂型及药物用量分析显示,治疗“中风”时,剂型多为汤剂,竹沥用量多为100 mL,核心药物配伍重用防风以祛风化痰,改善脑络痹阻;治疗“痰饮”时,剂型多为丸剂,竹沥用量为200 mL...     

酸枣仁油的毒理学研究

目的：评价酸枣仁油的用药安全性。方法：常规毒性实验和血液生化检查。结果：酸枣仁油对大小鼠均未测出LD50，家兔皮肤刺激实验未见急性毒性反应。大鼠的体重、血液学检查、血液生化学检查无显著性差异，大鼠的心、肝、脾、肺、肾、肾上腺、胸腺、睾丸、子宫、卵巢等器官肉眼观察及病理切片先镜检查，均未发现明显病理改变。豚鼠皮肤、兔眼睛及阴道局部应用，未见明显刺激反应。豚鼠皮肤未见过敏反应。结论：临床应用酸枣仁油并无毒性。     

延期妊娠并发羊水过少对围产儿影响的临床分析

目的:探讨延期妊娠分娩对围产儿的影响。方法:对延期妊娠352例临床资料进行分析(羊水过少组78例,羊水 正常组274例),观察围产儿的情况并进行对比分析。结果:延期妊娠并发羊水过少组胎儿窘迫、新生儿窒息、胎盘成熟度Ⅲ+级 及胎盘钙化均显著高于羊水正常组。结论:延期妊娠并发羊水过少确诊后适时以剖宫产结束分娩为宜。     

天王补心丸全方及方中缺桔梗对小鼠镇静催眠作用的影响

目的:探讨中药古方天王补心丸对小鼠中枢神经系统的药理影响及舟楫之剂桔梗在该方剂中的作用.方法:采用小鼠自发活动计数、延长戊巴比妥钠睡眠时间及抗惊厥试验等方法,观察天王补心丸方、缺桔梗的天王补心丸方、天王补心丸中臣药酸枣仁、酸枣仁与桔梗配伍及其桔梗单独使用时的镇静、催眠与抗惊厥作用.结果:天王补心丸有良好的镇静、催眠与抗惊厥作用,但该方去掉桔梗后,镇静、催眠与抗惊厥效果明显下降;天王补心丸中重要成分酸枣仁本身有较好的镇静催眠作用加上桔梗后效果得到加强,但不如天王补心丸全方,桔梗本身没有镇静、催眠与抗惊厥作用.结论:在天王补心丸方剂的配伍中,桔梗作为舟楫之剂确实能载药上浮,增强该方对中枢神经系统的作用.