Prognosis of epilepsy in a community-based study: 8 years of follow-up in an Argentine community

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prognosis of epilepsy, the possibility of achieving remission of seizures, in patients who were identified in a population-based study carried out in Junín, a city of about 70,000 inhabitants in Buenos Aires Province, Argentina. On January 1, 1991 (prevalence day), 106 people had epilepsy, including 64 (60%) with the condition active. METHODS: Eight years later, we revisited the patients identified in the prevalence study. We analyzed risk factors in relation to remission of seizures. We also confirmed the specific cause of death. RESULTS: Ninety-six patients were revisited (10 were completely lost to follow-up). We divided them into two groups: the group in terminal remission (defined as a seizure-free period that extended from prevalence day until the visit day in 1998) which included 64 people (66.7%), and the group of those who continued to have seizures which included 32 (33.3%) patients, of whom eight (25%) died. The overall standardized mortality ratio was 2.45; the rate was two and a half times that of the general national population. CONCLUSION: The better prognosis was observed in the group with generalized idiopathic epilepsy syndrome. Patients with epilepsy secondary to underlying structural causes had the worst prognosis, with higher mortality.     

Study of factors responsible for recurrence of seizures in controlled epileptics for more than 1 years after withdrawal of antiepileptic drugs

531 epileptic patients, who had achieved remission mostly for 2 years or more were studied. The mean follow up period was 5 years. Recurrence was noted in 103 patients (19%) after gradual withdrawal of AED, over a period of 3-4 months. 424 patients (81%) did not have recurrence. The recurrence rate was influenced adversely by factors like adolescent age and later onset seizures, pre-treatment duration of symptoms more than 3 years, pre-treatment precipitating factors like emotional stress, lack of sleep and meals (however, number in each group is small), positive family history of epilepsy, focal neurodeficit, absence and myoclonic plus grandmal type of clinical seizures, paroxysmal generalized spike and wave discharges and generalized short polyspike and wave discharges in the pretreatment EEG, atrophic changes on CT brain scan (in small numbers), head trauma at birth or later and hereditary factors as etiology of epilepsy, and more than 30 number of seizures before achieving the remission. Factors like, sex, frequency of seizures, period of remission i.e. two years or more and number of drugs used to achieve remission, did not have any significant adverse effect. However, in the last parameter 95% remission was achieved by one or a combination of two drugs (72% and 23% respectively).     

Prognosis of Epilepsy: A Review and Further Analysis of the First Nine Years of the British National General Practice Study of Epilepsy, a Prospective Population-Based Study

Summary: Purpose: To understand the prognosis of newly diagnosed epilepsy to provide rational therapy and advice for patients and their physicians. Methods: The National General Practice Study of Epilepsy (NGPSE) is the first large population-based study that has assessed the prognosis of patients with newly diagnosed epilepsy prospectively over a prolonged period. We review the previously published data on the prognosis of epilepsy after 9 years of follow-up. One thousand ninety-one patients with newly diagnosed or suspected epilepsy who were attending 1 of 275 general practices throughout the United Kingdom between 1984 and 1987 were ascertained. Cases in this study were defined as the occurrence of one or more seizures, including provoked seizures. Prognosis in terms of remission of seizures, and mortality, was analyzed in the patients who were classified 6 months after recruitment as having definite epilepsy (n = 564) or possible/probable epilepsy (n = 228). Results: Only 33 patients were completely lost to follow-up. After 9 years, 86% [95% confidence interval (CI) 81, 901 of patients with definite epilepsy had achieved a remission of 3 years, and 68% (CI 61, 73, had achieved a remission of 5 years. For the complete cohort, with possible/probable epilepsy included, the rates increased to 87% (CI 83, 91) for 3-year remission and 71% (CI 65, 77) for 5–year remission. The proportion of patients with definite epilepsy who were still in remission at 9-year follow-up (terminal remission) was 68% (CI 62, 74) for 3-year remission and 54% (CI 48, 60) for 5-year remission. When stratified by etiology, the proportions achieving 5–year remission by 9 years was 69% (CI 60, 77) for idiopathic seizures, and 61% (CI 46, 75) for remote symptomatic epilepsy. Age and seizure type had small effects on the chances of achieving remission, with children experiencing slightly lower rates than older patients, and partial seizures having lower remission rates than generalized seizures. The overall standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for patients with definite or possible/probable epilepsy was 2.5 (CI 2.1, 2.9), and 3.0 (CI 2.5, 3.7) for patients who were classified as having definite epilepsy. The SMR for patients with idiopathic epilepsy was 1.6 (CI 1.0, 2.4), for those with remote symptomatic epilepsy it was 4.3 (CI 3.3, 5.3, and for those with acute symptomatic epilepsy it was 2.9 (CI 1.7, 4.5). Conclusions: Overall, most patients with epilepsy wiil enter remission; however, there is a higher than expected risk of death, especially in those with symptomatic epilepsy.     

Prognosis after late relapse following epilepsy surgery

OBJECTIVES: To assess prognosis after late relapse in patients who are seizure free for the first 5 years after epilepsy surgery. METHODS: Patients who were seizure free for the first 5 years after resective epilepsy surgery were included. Date of first seizure recurrence, current seizure status, medication, age, and type of surgery were prospectively registered. Non-parametric statistics were used. RESULTS: One hundred and fifty-nine patients were studied. Thirty-two had at least one recurrent seizure. Time to event analysis showed an annual relapse rate of 4% between years 5 and 10 after surgery. At study termination, 143 of 159 patients (89.9%) were in terminal remission. For 30 patients with late relapse and at least 1-year follow-up thereafter, 53% were in terminal remission and 30% had experienced only rare or nocturnal seizures. Medication use was not associated either with likelihood of relapse or entering remission after relapse. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who are seizure free for the first 5 years after epilepsy surgery remain at risk for seizure recurrence. These relapses are often isolated events, and the long-term prognosis after relapse is often good. Relapse rates were similar in patients on and off AEDs, but the relation between AED taper and relapse is uncertain since patient groups may not be similar.     

Prevalence, incidence and risk factors of epilepsy in older children in rural Kenya

BACKGROUND: There is little data on the burden or causes of epilepsy in developing countries, particularly in children living in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We conducted two surveys to estimate the prevalence, incidence and risk factors of epilepsy in children in a rural district of Kenya. All children born between 1991 and 1995 were screened with a questionnaire in 2001 and 2003, and those with a positive response were then assessed for epilepsy by a clinician. Active epilepsy was defined as two or more unprovoked seizures with one in the last year. RESULTS: In the first survey 10,218 children were identified from a census, of whom 110 had epilepsy. The adjusted prevalence estimates of lifetime and active epilepsy were 41/1000 (95% CI: 31-51) and 11/1000 (95% CI: 5-15), respectively. Overall two-thirds of children had either generalized tonic-clonic and/or secondary generalized seizures. A positive history of febrile seizures (OR=3.01; 95% CI: 1.50-6.01) and family history of epilepsy (OR=2.55; 95% CI: 1.19-5.46) were important risk factors for active epilepsy. After the second survey, 39 children from the same birth cohort with previously undiagnosed epilepsy were identified, thus the incidence rate of active epilepsy is 187 per 100,000 per year (95% CI: 133-256) in children aged 6-12 years. CONCLUSIONS: There is a considerable burden of epilepsy in older children living in this area of rural Kenya, with a family history of seizures and a history of febrile seizures identified as risk factors for developing epilepsy.     

Course and outcome of childhood epilepsy: A 15‐year follow‐up of the Dutch Study of Epilepsy in Childhood

Purpose: To study the course and outcome of childhood‐onset epilepsy during 15‐year follow‐up (FU). Methods: We extended FU in 413 of 494 children with new‐onset epilepsy recruited in a previously described prospective hospital‐based study by questionnaire. Results: Mean FU was 14.8 years (range 11.6–17.5 years). Five‐year terminal remission (TR) was reached by 71% of the cohort. Course during FU was favorable in 50%, improving in 29%, and poor or deteriorating in 16%. Mean duration of seizure activity was 6.0 years (range 0–21.5 years), strongly depending on etiology and epilepsy type. Duration was <1 year in 25% of the cohort and exceeded 12 years in another 25%. Antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) were used by 86% during a mean of 7.4 years: one‐third had their last seizure within 1 year of treatment, and one‐third continued treatment at the end, although some had a 5‐year TR. At last contact, 9% of the cohort was intractable. In multivariate analysis, predictors were nonidiopathic etiology, febrile seizures, no 3‐month remission, and early intractability. Eighteen patients died; 17 had remote symptomatic etiology. Standardized mortality ratio for remote symptomatic etiology was 31.6 [95% confidence interval (CI) 18.4–50.6], versus 0.8 [95% CI 0.02–4.2] for idiopathic/cryptogenic etiology. Discussion: In most children with newly diagnosed epilepsy, the long‐term prognosis of epilepsy is favorable, and in particular, patients with idiopathic etiology will eventually reach remission. In contrast, epilepsy remains active in ～30% and becomes intractable in ～10%. AEDs probably do not influence epilepsy course; they merely suppress seizures. Mortality is significantly higher only in those with remote symptomatic etiology.     

Factors predicting prognosis of epilepsy after presentation with seizures

The objective of this study was to identify the factors, at the time of diagnosis, that determine the prognosis for remission of epilepsy. A prospective community-based cohort study of 792 patients recruited at the time of their first diagnosis of epileptic seizures was undertaken; in those classified 6 months after presentation, the median follow-up period was 7.2 years (quartiles at 6.2 and 8.2 years) after presentation. We analyzed data from 6 months after the first identified seizure, which prompted the diagnosis of epilepsy, to allow us to factor in those aspects contingent on a diagnostic assessment Baseline clinical and demographic data were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards regression model with remission of epilepsy for 1, 2, 3, and 5 years as outcome measures. The dominant clinical feature predicting remission was the number of seizures in the 6-month diagnostic assessment period. Thus, the chance of entering 1 year of remission by 6 years for a patient who had 2 seizures during this initial 6 months was 95%; for 5 years of remission, it was 47% as opposed to 75% for 1 year of remission and 24% for 5 years of remission if there had been 10 or more seizures during this period. The number of seizures in the early phase of epilepsy (here, taken as the first 6 months after presentation) is the single most important predictive factor for both early and long-term remission of seizures.     

Epilepsy in hemiplegic cerebral palsy due to perinatal arterial ischaemic stroke

Aim The aim of this study was to describe the frequency, risk factors, manifestations, and outcome of epilepsy in children with hemiplegic cerebral palsy (CP) due to perinatal arterial ischaemic stroke (AIS). Method The study group comprised 63 participants (41 males, 22 females) from a population‐based CP register whose brain imaging showed perinatal AIS. Information collected included occurrence of neonatal seizures, family history of epilepsy, motor function and epilepsy onset, treatment, and outcome. Electroclinical findings were classified according to seizure semiology, seizure type, and epilepsy syndrome. Results Mean age of participants at the time of study was 10 years 6 months (SD 4y 7mo, range 4–20y). Gross Motor Function Classification System levels I and II were reported in 96% of participants, and Manual Ability Classification System levels I and II were reported in 79% of children. Thirty‐four children (54%) developed epilepsy. Term delivery and more severe motor impairment were associated with epilepsy, but neonatal seizures and family history of epilepsy were not. Initial seizures were epileptic spasms, focal seizures, or myoclonic seizures. Focal seizure semiology suggested Rolandic or occipital seizure origin in the majority of children. Focal epileptic discharges in children with focal seizures had features of idiopathic partial epilepsy. Only 15% of children had active epilepsy 10 years after onset. Interpretation Despite a high incidence of epilepsy in children with hemiplegic CP due to AIS, the prognosis for seizure remission is good. Many children have clinical features, electroencephalography findings, and remission typical of idiopathic partial epilepsy.     

Two-year remission and subsequent relapse in children with newly diagnosed epilepsy

PURPOSE: Although remission is the ultimate measure of seizure control in epilepsy, and epilepsy syndrome should largely determine this outcome, little is known about the relative importance of syndrome versus other factors traditionally examined as predictors of remission or of relapse after remission. The purpose of this study was to examine remission and relapse with respect to the epilepsy syndrome and other factors traditionally considered with respect to seizure outcome. METHODS: A prospectively identified cohort of 613 children with newly diagnosed epilepsy was assembled and is actively being followed to determine seizure outcomes. Epilepsy syndrome and etiology were classified at diagnosis and again 2 years later. Remission was defined as 2 years completely seizure-free, and relapse as the recurrence of seizures after remission. Multivariable analysis was performed with the Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Five hundred ninety-four of the original 613 children were followed > or = 2 years (median follow-up, 5 years). Remission occurred in 442 (74%), of whom 107 (24%) relapsed. On multivariable analysis, idiopathic generalized syndromes and age at onset between 5 and 9 years were associated with a substantially increased remission rate, whereas remote symptomatic etiology, family history of epilepsy, seizure frequency, and slowing on the initial EEG were associated with a decreased likelihood of attaining remission. Young onset age (<1 year) and seizure type were not important after adjustment for these predictors. Relapses occurred more often in association with focal slowing on the initial EEG and with juvenile myoclonic epilepsy. Benign rolandic epilepsy and age at onset <1 year were associated with markedly lower risks of relapse. About one fourth of relapses were apparently spontaneous while the child was taking medication with good compliance, and more than half occurred in children who were tapering or had fully stopped medication. CONCLUSIONS: A large proportion of children with epilepsy remit. Symptomatic etiology, family history, EEG slowing, and initial seizure frequency negatively influence, and age 5-9 years and idiopathic generalized epilepsy positively influence the probability of entering remission. Factors that most influence relapse tend to be different from those that influence remission.     

Childhood epilepsy with a small number of seizures may be left untreated: an international prospective study

Aims. It is unknown whether treatment with antiepileptic drugs in children with epilepsy with a presumed good prognosis is always necessary. We aimed to study the course of newly diagnosed epilepsy in children with a presumed good prognosis who are managed without AED treatment. Methods. A total of 151 children (one month to 12 years of age) with two to five lifetime unprovoked seizures (excluding febrile convulsions), were followed for three years. Treatment was initially withheld. Children with symptomatic epilepsy, or absence or myoclonic epilepsy, were excluded. AED treatment was started after >10 lifetime seizures or an episode of status epilepticus during follow‐up, or if the parents or treating physician deemed it otherwise necessary. Results. During follow‐up, 113 children continued to meet our criteria for refraining from treatment with antiepileptic drugs, yet 30 started treatment at the request of the parents. Thirty‐eight children at some time met the criteria to start treatment, but the parents of 16 declined treatment. In all, 99 (66%) children maintained the no‐treatment regime. Ninety‐eight children (65% of 151) reached terminal remission for at least one year, including 83 who did not receive antiepileptic drug treatment (84% of the untreated 99). Mean terminal remission was significantly longer in the group with a total of <10 seizures compared to those with >10 seizures. Treatment did not increase the length of terminal remission. Adverse events, including traumatic injury, occurred equally in the treated and untreated children. Measures of quality of life suggested a better outcome in those without treatment. Conclusions. Children with newly diagnosed epilepsy with a presumed good prognosis may not need immediate AED treatment. Postponing treatment does not alter the chance of remission or the risk of accidents and adverse events and appears to be associated with a good quality of life.