冠心病多支血管病变患者不完全血运重建预后不良预测模型的建立

目的 构建冠心病（CHD）多支血管病变（MVD）患者不完全血运重建（ICR）术后预后不良的预测模型。方法 回顾性收集2020年1月至2021年5月在承德医学院附属医院行冠状动脉造影示MVD且经皮冠状动脉介入治疗（PCI）术后ICR患者的临床资料，按照出院时间顺序，将符合入选条件的受试者757例分为训练集530例（70.0%）与验证集227例（30.0%），纳入单因素Logistic回归分析中P<0.2的变量进行多因素Logistic回归分析，按照赤池信息准则（AIC）选取最优Logistic回归模型构建MVD患者ICR术后预后不良的预测模型。采用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线下面积（AUC）验证及评估该模型的区分能力，并绘制校准曲线和决策曲线分析（DCA）曲线对该模型的校准度、临床净获益及实用性进行评估。结果 用于预测MVD患者ICR术后预后不良预测模型的预测因子包括：尿酸、女性、年龄、PCI术前罪犯血管心肌梗死溶栓治疗试验血流分级、糖耐量异常、非结合胆红素。训练集与验证集的ROC的AUC分别为0.645、0.690。训练集与验证集校准曲线的Hosmer-Lemeshow检验的统计...     

急性Stanford A型主动脉夹层术后急性肾损伤发生风险列线图预测模型的建立

目的 建立急性Stanford A型主动脉夹层（ATAAD）修复术后急性肾损伤（AKI）风险的疾病预测列线图模型。 方法 回顾性分析2017年1月～2021年1月就诊于兰州大学第一医院的194名ATAAD患者的23项临床资料。分为Non-AKI组和AKI组,利用LASSO回归和Logistic回归进行筛选预测因素,使用R语言建立列线图预测模型,使用C指数、校准图、ROC曲线和决策曲线分析评估预测模型的识别、校准和临床有用性。 结果 Logistic回归分析示心衰、肝功能不全、肾功能不全、异常心电图、心包积液及肾动脉夹层是影响ATAAD术后AKI的独立危险因素（P<0.05）。预测模型使用R语言建立,并以列线图的形式呈现。C指数为0.779,通过内部验证C指数为0.748,AUC值为0.778,该模型显示出良好的预测能力。 结论 AKI列线图具有良好的预测能力,可用于ATAAD患者术后AKI的预测。     

冠状动脉旁路移植术后急性肾损伤患者的预后分析—基于多中心的中期随访研究

目的 分析冠状动脉旁路移植术（coronary artery bypass grafting, CABG）后急性肾损伤（acute kidney injury, AKI）患者的中期预后情况。方法 回顾性收集2013年01月至2020年06月在南京市第一医院，江苏省人民医院和上海市第一人民医院行冠状动脉旁路移植术患者的完整住院资料。根据KDIGO标准将所有患者分为正常肾功能组（normal renal function, NRF）和AKI组。通过倾向性评分匹配校正组间基线变量，比较两组患者的住院结局情况。使用乘积极限法比较NRF组和AKI各分期组的中期全因死亡率、心因死亡率和透析率；Cox等比例风险模型确定AKI组中期死亡和透析事件的预测因子。结果 研究纳入3122例患者，其中NRF组2553例，AKI组569例。561对患者匹配成功。与NRF组相比，AKI组患者的住院死亡率（1.1%比8.7%）及并发症发生率更高（P均<0.05）；在中期随访中， AKI 1 期不增加患者中期死亡（P=0.053）和透析事件（P=0.054）的发生风险，然而AKI 2、3期显著增加患者上述事件发生风险（P均<0.001）。年龄（P=0.027）、左室射血分数（P=0.018）、胰岛素依赖型糖尿病（P=0.008）、内生肌酐清除率（P=0.012）、术后透析（P＜0.001）和主动脉内球囊反搏（P=0.003）是AKI中期死亡和透析事件的独立预测因子。结论 CABG术后AKI患者的住院结局及中期预后不佳。年龄，糖尿病，围术期心、肾功能状态是AKI患者发生中期死亡和透析事件的预测因子。     

术前血清尿酸水平与三尖瓣手术后急性肾损伤的相关性研究

目的：探究术前血清尿酸与三尖瓣外科术后急性肾损伤（acute kidney injury,AKI）发生的相关性。方法：回顾性分析广东省人民医院2018年1月至2019年6月，在体外循环下三尖瓣外科手术患者的临床资料。以术前血清尿酸水平的四分位数进行分组，通过单因素和多因素Logistic回归模型结合限制性立方样条模型分析术前尿酸水平与术后AKI的相关性及剂量反应曲线关系。结果：研究共纳入230例患者，有43例（18.7%）患者发生术后AKI。在校正多种因素的影响后，RCS分析提示术前血清尿酸水平与术后AKI发生呈现线性关系（非线性检验P=0.0778)。多因素Logistic回归分析提示，尿酸每增加10μmol/L，术后发生AKI的风险增加5%(OR=1.05,P=0.186)。发生术后AKI的风险，以Q1组患者为参照，Q2组患者是4.6倍（OR=4.62,P=0.0952）;Q3组是8.0倍（OR=8.01,P=0.0147）;Q4组是7.9倍（OR=7.92,P=0.0165）。尿酸浓度分组越大，术后发生AKI的风险越高（趋势性检验P=0.0114）。结论：AKI是三尖瓣外科术后常...     

肾移植术后发生急性肾损伤的临床分析

目的：了解肾移植术后患者发生急性肾损伤（ AKI）的情况。方法肾移植术后患者198例,根据是否发生AKI分为AKI组（31例）和非AKI组（167例）,分析AKI发病原因、发生时间、预后及对肾功能的影响等。结果非AKI组冷缺血时间（143．5±79．8）min,AKI组为（211．8±155．4）min,P＜0．01。 AKI发生于肾移植术后1个月22例,原因为排斥13例、感染4例、药物相关2例、混合因素3例;超过肾移植术后1个月发生9例,原因为排斥4例、感染1例、药物相关1例、混合因素3例。 AKI治愈、好转者占96．77％,5例（9次）反复发作。术后1个月,非AKI组8．38％（14/167）、AKI组41．94％（13/31）出现肾功能受损,P＜0．01;术后1 a,非AKI组5．56％（8/144）、AKI组25．00％（5/20）出现肾功能受损,P＜0．05。结论肾移植术后患者AKI发生率较高,但程度较轻、持续时间较短,治愈率高;但对术后1a的移植肾功能有损害。     

基于四种机器学习算法建立预测肝癌切除术后复发模型

目的:基于机器学习算法建立肝癌切除术后模型，预测患者术后复发概率。方法:回顾性分析广西中医药大学第一附属医院2017年12月至2019年6月肝癌切除术后患者的临床资料，将患者分为术后复发组与未复发组。首先通过比较收集得到的两组患者19个临床指标，将差异有统计学意义的指标导入逻辑回归、随机森林、人工神经网络和支持向机量机器学习算法建立四种预测模型，并获得预测变量重要性和评估模型效能的各项指标，从而评估各模型。结果:(1)共收集210例患者资料，其中包括术后复发患者98例和未复发患者112例；(2)4种预测模型中，预测重要性评分排名靠前的为NLR、肿瘤数目、肿瘤分化程度、PLR、肿瘤直径这几个变量对模型的预测效能有重要影响；(3)4种模型评估：逻辑回归、随机森林、人工神经网络和支持向量机算法的AUC值分别为0.889、0.868、0.705和0.649。结论:在本研究中，逻辑回归、随机森林表现较好，这两种机器学习算法建立的模型可较准确预测肝癌切除术后复发可能性。NLR、肿瘤数目、肿瘤分化程度、PLR、肿瘤直径可能是影响肝癌术后复发的预测因素。     

BP神经网络、随机森林和决策树预测急性脑梗死患者静脉溶栓后发生早期神经功能恶化的效能比较

目的 比较BP神经网络、随机森林和决策树预测急性脑梗死（ACI）患者静脉溶栓后发生早期神经功能恶化（END）的效能。方法 选取2021年3月至2022年3月于梧州市中医医院神经内科接受重组组织型纤溶酶原激活剂（rt-PA）静脉溶栓治疗的ACI患者342例,根据静脉溶栓24 h后患者是否发生END将其分为END组（n=66）与非END组（n=276）。比较两组患者临床资料,筛选ACI患者静脉溶栓后发生END的可能影响因素。然后将所有患者按照7∶3的比例分成训练集和测试集,训练集用于构建BP神经网络、随机森林和决策树,测试集用于评估BP神经网络、随机森林和决策树的预测效能。结果 ROC曲线分析结果显示,BP神经网络预测测试集ACI患者静脉溶栓后发生END的AUC为0.957[95%CI(0.918,0.995)],精确率为0.682,召回率为0.882,灵敏度为0.882,特异度为0.912,正确率为0.912;随机森林预测测试集ACI患者发生END的AUC为0.969[95%CI(0.913,1.000)],精确率为0.948,召回率为0.989,灵敏度为0.989,特异度为0.925,...     

老年心脏手术患者术后急性肾损伤的发生率与预测因素研究

目的调查老年心脏手术患者术后急性肾损伤(AKI)的发生率,分析其危险因素并探讨血清中性粒细胞明胶酶相关脂质运载蛋白(NGAL)的早期预测价值。方法入选拟行择期心脏手术的患者(≥60岁)285例。根据AKI的发生情况将患者分为AKI组(n=81)及非AKI组(n=204)。分析术后2 h血清NGAL浓度对术后A KI的预测价值,筛选AKI的危险因素。结果老年患者择期心脏术后AKI的发生率为28.4%(81/285)。术后2 h血清NGAL水平预测AKI的接受者操作特性(ROC)曲线下面积为0.622。多因素logistic回归分析筛选出术前合并慢性肾病、术中应用体外循环、围术期输注人工胶体量多、术后次日急性生理与慢性健康评分(APACHE)Ⅱ评分高和术后机械通气24 h是术后AKI的危险因素。结论老年患者心脏手术后AKI的发生率较高;术后早期血清NGAL预测AKI的作用有限;术前合并慢性肾病、术中应用体外循环、围术期输注人工胶体多、术后APACHEⅡ评分高和长时间机械通气伴随术后AKI风险增加。     

尿调节素和葡萄糖-6-磷酸脱氢酶对急性心肌梗死患者PCI后发生急性肾损伤的预测价值

目的 探讨尿调节素（UMOD）、葡萄糖-6-磷酸脱氢酶（G6PD）对急性心肌梗死患者PCI后发生急性肾损伤（AKI）的预测价值。方法 选取2021年2月—2023年2月在新疆医科大学第一附属医院心脏中心监护病房行PCI的急性心肌梗死患者285例，根据PCI后是否发生AKI将其分为AKI组（n=26）和非AKI组（n=259）。比较两组一般资料、LVEF、血压、实验室检查指标及病情和治疗情况。急性心肌梗死患者PCI后发生AKI的影响因素分析采用多因素Logistic回归分析；绘制ROC曲线以评价UMOD、G6PD及二者联合对急性心肌梗死患者PCI后发生AKI的预测价值。结果 两组合并肾功能不全者占比、LVEF、WBC、血肌酐、估算肾小球滤过率（eGFR）、尿酸、UMOD、G6PD及病变血管支数比较，差异有统计学意义（P<0.05）。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示，肾功能不全、LVEF<50%、血肌酐≥100μmol/L、尿酸≥420μmol/L、UMOD<120 mg/L、G6PD<8 U/gHb是急性心肌梗死患者PCI后发生AKI的危险因素（P<0...     

急性StanfordA型主动脉夹层患者体外循环术后急性肾损伤的危险因素分析

目的 分析急性StanfordA型主动脉夹层患者体外循环术后发生急性肾损伤的相关危险因素。方法 回顾性分析2016年7月至2018年12月哈尔滨医科大学附属第一医院心脏大血管外科收治的急性StanfordA型主动脉夹层手术患者的临床资料。根据KDIGO标准分为AKI组及非AKI组,将两组资料进行对比分析,探讨TA-AAD患者术后发生AKI的危险因素。结果 共入选患者134例,未发生AKI患者68例;发生AKI患者66例（49.3%）,其中24例患者需要肾脏替代治疗（CRRT）。AKI组死亡率明显高于非AKI组。单因素分析显示患者性别、术前血红蛋白以及高血压疾病史、体外循环时间、主动脉阻断时间、术后ICU停留时间、术后气管插管时间及术后死亡率差异有统计学意义。Logistic回归分析显示女性患者、高血压疾病史、术后气管插管时间为TA-AAD患者体外循环术后发生AKI的独立危险因素。 结论 女性患者、高血压疾病史、术后气管插管时间为TA-AAD患者体外循环术后发生AKI的独立危险因素。     

A型主动脉夹层术后严重高胆红素血症并发急性肾损伤患者的预后及危险因素

目的 探讨A型主动脉夹层术后严重高胆红素血症并发急性肾损伤（AKI）患者的预后及危险因素。 方法 回顾性筛选西京医院2015年1月~2018年12月行A型主动脉夹层手术治疗的患者,术后同时发生严重高胆红素血症和AKI的患者被纳入研究。研究终点包括住院死亡和长期死亡。采用单因素和多因素分析住院死亡相关的危险因素,使用Kaplan-Meier生存曲线来评估患者的长期生存率以及AKI的不同分期对长期生存的影响。 结果 221例患者被纳入研究,50例患者接受持续性肾脏替代治疗（CRRT）,82例患者住院死亡。1年、2年和3年累积病死率分别是39.0%、40.2%和41.1%。多因素Logistic 回归分析显示,A型主动脉夹层术后严重高胆红素血症并发AKI患者死亡的独立危险因素为:术后第1天平均动脉压（OR0.967,95%CI 0.935-1.000;P<0.01）、术后机械通气时长（OR 1.189,95%CI 1.003-1.410;P<0.05）、术后总输血量（OR 1.019,95%CI 1.003-1.036;P<0.05）以及AKI 3期（OR 12.639,95%CI5.409-34.388;P<0.01）。 结论 A型主动脉夹层术后严重高胆红素血症并发AKI患者的住院病死率以及长期病死率较高。AKI 3期,术后较低的平均动脉压,延长的术后机械通气以及增加的术后输血量是患者住院死亡的危险因素。因此,临床医生应该更密切地监测具有这些高风险的患者。     

A型主动脉夹层术后急性肾损伤患者接受连续性肾脏替代治疗的预后因素

目的 分析Stanford A型主动脉夹层术后出现急性肾损伤（acute kidney injury, AKI）并接受连续性肾脏替代治疗（continuous renal replacement therapy, CRRT）的患者预后因素。 方法 筛选2015年4月 ~ 2018年3月西京医院收治A型主动脉夹层心脏手术后出现AKI并接受CRRT治疗的患者,记录患者术前、术中、术后临床资料,按患者是否存活分为2组:存活组(n = 32)和死亡组(n = 34)。 结果 最终纳入66例患者,年龄（49 ± 9）岁,男性占91%,术前血肌酐（144 ± 77）μmol/L。其中,34例患者死亡（52%）。多因素Logistic回归分析表明术中红细胞输注的量（HR = 3.169, 95% CI 1.180 -8.513;P < 0.05）和术后多脏器功能衰竭（HR = 3.575, 95% CI 1.196 -10.687;P < 0.05）是A型主动脉夹层术后出现AKI并接受CRRT的患者死亡独立危险因素。 结论 对于A型主动脉夹层术后需要CRRT治疗的AKI患者,术中输注红细胞量越多以及术后出现多脏器功能衰竭患者的死亡风险越大。     

右美托咪定对小儿先天性心脏病术后急性肾功能损伤的预防效应

目的 了解右美托咪定对小儿先天性心脏病术后急性肾功能损伤的预防效应。 方法 30例确诊房间隔或室间隔缺损的患儿参与研究。患儿随机分别接受生理盐水(对照组，n = 15)和右美托咪定(试药组，n = 15)给药处理，给药时间从麻醉诱导至体外循环结束。分别于术前(T0)，麻醉诱导后10 min(T1)，体外循环结束后5 min(T2)，T2点后2 h(T3)，术后第1天(POD1)和术后第2天(POD2)测定血肌酐水平(SCr)并计算肾小球滤过率估值(eGFR)。急性肾功能损伤(AKI)定义为SCr绝对值增加超过3 mg/L或是上升幅度超过50%。 结果 对比对照组，试药组中围术期AKI发病率显著降低(P < 0.05)。T2和T3点测定对照组中eGFR水平较试药组显著降低(P < 0.05)。 结论 术中给药右美托咪定有助于降低AKI的发病率并有效防止体外循环结束后eGFR水平的下降。     

Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin and Acute Kidney Injury after Cardiac Surgery: The Effect of Baseline Renal Function on Diagnostic Performance

Background and objectives: Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin (NGAL) is rapidly released by renal tubules after injury, potentially allowing early identification of acute kidney injury (AKI) after cardiac surgery. However, the diagnostic performance of NGAL has varied widely in clinical studies, and it remains unknown what factors modify the relationship between NGAL and AKI. We hypothesized the relationship between urinary NGAL and AKI would vary with baseline renal function, allowing a stratified analysis to improve diagnostic performance of this novel biomarker.Design, setting, participants, & measurements: We performed a prospective observational study in 426 adult cardiac surgical patients. Urinary NGAL was serially determined, commencing preoperatively and continuing 24 hours postoperatively. AKI was defined as increase in serum creatinine from baseline by either >50% or >0.3 mg/dl within 48 hours postoperatively. Patients were stratified by baseline estimated GFR (eGFR). NGAL levels were compared between patients with and without AKI and diagnostic characteristics determined according to baseline eGFR.Results: In patients with baseline eGFR ≥60 ml/min, urinary NGAL was higher at all postoperative time points in patients who developed AKI compared with those who did not. In patients with baseline eGFR <60 ml/min, urinary NGAL did not differ at any time between those who did and those who did not develop AKI. Postoperative NGAL best identified AKI in patients with baseline eGFR 90 to 120 ml/min.Conclusions: The relationship between urinary NGAL and AKI after cardiac surgery varies with baseline renal function, with optimal discriminatory performance in patients with normal preoperative function.Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) is a common complication after cardiac surgery, with reported incidence varying from 20% to 50% depending on the definition used (1–4). Early detection of injury is desirable to facilitate early intervention aimed at limiting associated morbidity and mortality. Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin (NGAL) is rapidly released by renal tubules in response to injury, and an acute rise in urinary NGAL has been reported to accurately identify evolving AKI in both pediatric and adult populations within 2 to 8 hours of cardiac surgery (5–9). However, other studies have found urinary NGAL to have only modest discriminant ability for AKI after cardiac surgery (3,10). Studies reporting excellent discriminant ability have generally excluded patients with preoperative renal dysfunction, whereas those studies reporting a more modest performance have included patients with a heterogeneous mix of baseline renal function. Although it is unknown whether baseline renal function modifies the relationship between NGAL and AKI, the existence of such a relationship may contribute to the limited predictive ability in these studies. Although NGAL is proposed as a real-time marker of acute renal injury rather than renal function, the nonlinear relationship between GFR and serum creatinine may mean that a relatively larger injury, producing a larger reduction in GFR, is required to cause a rise in serum creatinine sufficient to meet diagnostic criteria for AKI in a patient with normal baseline GFR. Conversely, a much smaller injury (and smaller incremental reduction in GFR) may be sufficient to cause a rise in creatinine that would diagnose AKI in a patient with impaired GFR at baseline. If true, the diagnostic utility of urinary NGAL for a creatinine-based diagnosis of AKI may be enhanced using an approach stratified by baseline renal function. We have previously reported a modest performance of urinary NGAL for early identification of evolving AKI in a large, unselected adult population undergoing cardiac surgery, with a wide range of baseline renal function. In this posthoc analysis we sought to investigate this potential source of effect modification to the relationship between NGAL and postoperative AKI. We hypothesized that the relationship between postoperative urinary NGAL and AKI would vary with baseline renal function, measured by estimated GFR (eGFR). We further hypothesized that the diagnostic performance of NGAL for postoperative AKI would be improved using an analysis stratified by baseline function, allowing the use of different diagnostic thresholds.     

A combined cardiorenal assessment for the prediction of acute kidney injury in lower respiratory tract infections

BackgroundThe accurate prediction of acute kidney injury (AKI) is an unmet clinical need. A combined assessment of cardiac stress and renal tubular damage might improve early AKI detection.MethodsA total of 372 consecutive patients presenting to the Emergency Department with lower respiratory tract infections were enrolled. Plasma B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) levels were measured in a blinded fashion at presentation. The potential of these biomarkers to predict AKI was assessed as the primary endpoint. AKI was defined according to the AKI Network classification.ResultsOverall, 16 patients (4%) experienced early AKI. These patients were more likely to suffer from preexisting chronic cardiac disease or diabetes mellitus. At presentation, BNP (334 pg/mL [130-1119] vs 113 pg/mL [52-328], P <.01) and NGAL (269 ng/mL [119-398] vs 96 ng/mL [60-199], P <.01) levels were significantly higher in AKI patients. The predictive accuracy of presentation BNP and NGAL levels was comparable (BNP 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.84 vs NGAL 0.74; 95% CI, 0.61-0.87). In a combined logistic model, a joint BNP/NGAL approach improved the predictive accuracy for early AKI over either biomarker alone (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.82; 95% CI, 0.74-0.89). The combined categorical cut point defined by BNP >267 pg/mL or NGAL >231 ng/mL correctly identified 15 of 16 early AKI patients (sensitivity 94%, specificity 61%). During multivariable regression analysis, the combined BNP/NGAL cutoff remained the independent predictor of early AKI (hazard ratio 10.82; 95% CI, 1.22-96.23; P = .03).ConclusionA model combining the markers BNP and NGAL is a powerful predictor of early AKI in patients with lower respiratory tract infection.     

Urinary Interleukin‐18 and Urinary Neutrophil Gelatinase‐associated Lipocalin Predict Acute Kidney Injury Following Pulmonary Valve Replacement Prior to Serum Creatinine

Background. It is becoming increasingly recognized that manifestations of congenital heart disease (CHD) extend beyond the cardiovascular system. The factors contributing to renal dysfunction in patients with CHD are multifactorial, with acute kidney injury (AKI) at time of cardiac surgery playing a major role. AKI is often diagnosed based on changes in serum creatinine and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Such measurements are often late and imprecise. Recent data indicate that urinary biomarkers interleukin‐18 (IL‐18) and neutrophil gelatinase‐associated lipocalin (NGAL) are earlier markers of AKI. We sought to determine the efficacy of urinary IL‐18 and NGAL for detecting early AKI in patients undergoing surgical pulmonary valve replacement (PVR). Methods. Twenty patients presenting for surgical PVR with a history of previous repair of a conotruncal anomaly were enrolled. Preoperative clinical data were measured and urine samples and serum creatinine were collected at 6, 12, 24, and 72 hours post bypass. Urine was evaluated for NGAL and IL‐18. AKI was determined using the Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss and End Stage Renal Disease (RIFLE) classification system. Results. Using the RIFLE classification system, seven patients (35%) were found to have AKI defined as a drop in the eGFR or an increase in serum creatinine. All seven patients with AKI had marked increase from preoperative baseline in urine IL‐18 (sixfold) and NGAL (26‐fold). Using NGAL and IL‐18, AKI was detected at 6 hours postoperatively, resulting in AKI being identified 12–36 hours prior to detection by conventional methods. No preoperative predictors for AKI were identified. Conclusion. Both NGAL and IL‐18 are early predictive biomarkers of AKI, and both increase in tandem after surgical PVR. Importantly, both rise before an increase in creatinine or a decrease in eGFR is present. Monitoring both biomarkers may allow for earlier detection and subsequent interventions to prevent AKI at time of surgery for CHD.     

尿NGAL、KIM-1及Cys C在体外循环术后急性肾损伤早期诊断中的意义

目的探讨尿中性粒细胞明胶酶相关脂质运载蛋白（NGAL）、肾损伤分子-1（KIM-1）及胱蛋白酶抑制剂C（CysC）在体外循环术后急性肾损伤（acute kidney injury,AKI）早期诊断中的价值与意义。方法选择267例进行体外循环手术的心脏病患者,体外循环结束后第一个12h内每2h采集尿样及血样1次,此后3d内每12h采集1次,对尿中NGAL、KIM-1及CysC进行定量分析,同时在相应时间点检测血清肌酐水平,血清肌酐比基线水平增加50％以上为发生AKI的标准。结果术后3d内有54例发生不同程度AKI,术后2h的尿NAGL、KIM—1及CysC的ROC曲线下面积分别为0．89、0．84和0．67,联合检测尿NAGL和KIM-1,ROC曲线下面积为0．96,可以提高AKI早期诊断的敏感性和特异性。结论尿NAGL和KIM-1可以作为体外循环术后AKI早期诊断的敏感性和特异性较高的生物学标志物。     

Kinetic eGFR and Novel AKI Biomarkers to Predict Renal Recovery

Background and objectives

Prompt recognition of severe renal impairment could improve the early management of critically ill patients. We compared the value of kinetic eGFR, plasma neutrophil gelatinase–associated lipocalin (NGAL), and urine tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-2 and urine insulin-like growth factor–binding protein 7 ([TIMP-2]*[IGFBP7]) in predicting short-term recovery from AKI and major adverse kidney events.

Design, setting, participants, & measurements

During the 6-month study period, 245 patients were admitted to our intensive care unit. This study included 57 consecutive patients presenting with AKI within the first 24 hours after admission. AKI markers were evaluated at inclusion (day 0) and 24 hours later (day 1). Kinetic eGFR was calculated on day 1 according to serum creatinine evolution. Renal recovery was defined as normalization of serum creatinine with reversal of oliguria within 48 hours. Major adverse kidney events included death, need for RRT, or persistence of renal dysfunction at hospital discharge.

Results

Plasma NGAL and [TIMP-2]*[IGFBP7] predicted renal recovery, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) values between 0.70 and 0.79 at inclusion. Although plasma NGAL values frequently reached the maximal measurement range, their decrease on day 1 predicted recovery. The kinetic eGFR calculation after initial resuscitation provided the best AUC-ROC value for renal recovery, at 0.87. The best predictions for major adverse kidney events were provided by [TIMP-2]*[IGFBP7] and kinetic eGFR (equal AUC-ROCs of 0.81). Combining AKI markers in addition to clinical prediction models improved the discrimination and reclassification of patients who will recover from AKI or suffer from major adverse kidney events.

Conclusions

Biomarkers of kidney damage predicted short-term renal recovery and major adverse kidney events for an unselected cohort of critically ill patients. Calculating the kinetic eGFR imposed a delay after initial resuscitation but provided a good diagnostic and prognostic approach. The utility of functional and damage AKI marker combinations in addition to clinical information requires validation in larger prospective studies.     

血清前白蛋白联合SinoSCORE对心脏瓣膜置换术的预测价值

目的 评价血清前白蛋白（prealbumin,PA）联合SinoSCORE模型对心瓣膜置换术的补充预测价值。 方法 收集贵州医科大学附属医院心脏外科2017年7月~2019年8月415例心脏瓣膜置换术患者的围手术期资料,根据患者术前血清PA水平将患者分为低PA组（PA<200 mg/L）和正常PA组（PA≥200 mg/L）,比较两组患者的实际病死率及SinoSCORE对两组患者的预测病死率有无统计学差异。应用logistic回归分析评价血清PA与术后死亡的关联性,通过计算受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)、净重新分类指数（NRI）和整体鉴别指数（IDI）来综合评价PA的补充预测价值。 结果 低PA组患者的病死率显著高于正常PA组患者（P<0.01）,术后30 d病死率（包括自动出院后死亡）分别为13.2%和4.6%,SinoSCORE对两组患者的预测病死率无统计学差异。单因素logistic回归分析结果示PA水平与术后死亡负关联（OR=0.989,P<0.01）。SinoSCORE联合PA后ROC曲线下面积（AUC）增加0.091,与SinoSCORE单独预测病死率的ROC曲线下面积（AUC）比较有显著的统计学差异（P<0.01）。SinoSCORE联合PA后的净重新分类指数（NRI）和整体鉴别指数（IDI）为0.092和0.023。 结论 血清PA在SinoSCORE模型预测心脏瓣膜置换术的死亡风险中有较好的补充预测价值。因此,在今后建立新的心脏瓣膜手术风险评分模型时可将血清PA作为重要的预测因子纳入到模型中。