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OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the prevalence and 10‐year outcomes of frailty in older adults in relation to deficit accumulation. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: The National Population Health Survey of Canada, with frailty estimated at baseline (1994/95) and mortality follow‐up to 2004/05. PARTICIPANTS: Community‐dwelling older adults (N=2,740, 60.8% women) aged 65 to 102 from 10 Canadian provinces. During the 10‐year follow‐up, 1,208 died. MEASUREMENTS: Self‐reported health information was used to construct a frailty index (Frailty Index) as a proportion of deficits accumulated in individuals. The main outcome measure was mortality. RESULTS: The prevalence of frailty increased with age in men and women (correlation coefficient=0.955–0.994, P<.001). The Frailty Index estimated that 622 (22.7%, 95% confidence interval (CI)=21.0–24.4%) of the sample was frail. Frailty was more common in women (25.3%, 95% CI=23.2–27.5%) than in men (18.6%, 95% CI=15.9–21.3%). For those aged 85 and older, the Frailty Index identified 39.1% (95% CI=31.3–46.9%) of men as frail, compared with 45.1% (95% CI=39.7–50.5%) of women. Frailty significantly increased the risk of death, with an age‐ and sex‐adjusted hazard ratio for the Frailty Index of 1.57 (95% CI=1.41–1.74). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of frailty increases with age and at any age lessens survival. The Frailty Index approach readily identifies frail people at risk of death, presumably because of its use of multiple health deficits in multidimensional domains.  相似文献   

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People age at different rates. We have proposed that rates of aging can be quantified by the rate at which individuals accumulate health deficits. Earlier estimates, using cross-sectional analyses suggested that deficits accumulated exponentially, at an annual rate of 3.5 %. Here, we estimate the rate of deficit accumulation using longitudinal data from the Canadian National Population Health Survey. By analyzing age-specific trajectories of deficit accumulation in people aged 20 years and over (n = 13,668) followed biannually for 16 years, we found that the longitudinal average annual rate of deficit accumulation was 4.5 % (±0.75 %). This estimate was notably stable during the adult life span. The corresponding average doubling time in the number of deficits was 15.4 (95 % CI 14.82–16.03) years, roughly 30 % less than we had reported from the cross-sectional analysis. Earlier work also established that the average number of deficits accumulated by individuals (N), equals the product of the intensity of environmental stresses (λ) causing damage to the organism, by the average recovery time (W). At the individual level, changes in deficit accumulation can be attributed to both changes in environmental stresses and changes in recovery time. By contrast, at the population level, changes in the number of deficits are proportional to the changes in recovery time. In consequence, we propose here that the average recovery time, W doubles approximately every 15.4 years, independently of age. Such changes quantify the increase of vulnerability to stressors as people age that gives rise to increasing risk of frailty, disability and death. That deficit accumulation will, on average, double twice between ages 50 and 80 highlights the importance of health in middle age on late life outcomes.  相似文献   

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Aging in a given individual can be characterized by the number of deficits (symptoms, signs, laboratory abnormalities, disabilities) that they accumulate. The number of accumulated deficits, more than their nature, well characterizes health status in individuals — the proportion of deficits present in an individual to deficits considered is known as a frailty index. While on average deficits accumulate with age, individual trajectories in the number of deficits is highly dynamic. Transitions in the number of deficits over a fixed time interval can be represented by the Poisson law, with the Poisson mean dependent on the deficit numbers at baseline. Here we present an extension of the model to make possible predictions for any given time period. Using data from the Canadian National Population Health Survey of people aged 55 and over (n = 4330), followed during 7 cycles being the baseline and 6 cycles of follow-up every 2 years, we found that the transition in the number of deficits during any time period can be approximated using a time dependent Poisson distribution with the Poisson mean tending to decelerate over time, according to square-root-of-time kinetics characteristic for stochastic processes (e.g. diffusion, Brownian motion ) while the probability of death shows a pattern of time acceleration with a high degree of precision, “explaining” over 98% of variance. The model predicts a variety of changes in health status including the possibility of health improvement indicating the repair/remodeling abilities of the organism. The model is valuable for estimating how changes in health can influence mortality across the life course from late middle age.  相似文献   

5.
As nonreplicative cells age, they commonly accumulate subcellular deficits that can compromise function. As people age, they too experience problems that can accumulate. As deficits (symptoms, signs, illnesses, disabilities) accumulate, people become more susceptible to adverse health outcomes, including worse health and even death. This state of increased risk of adverse health outcomes is indistinguishable from the idea of frailty, so deficit accumulation represents another way to define frailty. Counting deficits not only allows grades of frailty to be discerned but also provides insights into the complex problems of older adults. This process is potentially useful to geriatricians who need to be experts in managing complexity. A key to managing complexity is through instruments such as a comprehensive geriatric assessment, which can serve as the basis for routine clinical estimation of an individual's degree of frailty. Understanding people and their needs as deficits accumulate is an exciting challenge for clinical research on frailty and its management by geriatricians.  相似文献   

6.
OBJECTIVES: To test the proposition, using routinely available clinical data, that deficit accumulation results in loss of redundancy. In keeping with the reliability theory of aging, this would be quantitated by attenuation in the slope of a Frailty Index (FI) with age. The more deficits, the less steep the slope and the less redundancy. DESIGN: Cross‐sectional analysis of a prospective cohort study, with 5‐year mortality data. SETTING: The clinical sample of the second wave of the Canadian Study of Health and Aging. PARTICIPANTS: Two thousand three hundred five people aged 70 and older at baseline. MEASUREMENTS: A FI based on data used for a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA), the slope of the relationship between age and the FI‐CGA, the limit value of the FI‐CGA, mortality. RESULTS: An age‐invariant limit to deficit accumulation was demonstrated; the observed 99% limit was 0.66. At the 25th percentile of deficit accumulation (FI‐CGA ~0.18), the slope of the FI‐CGA in relation to age was 0.044 (range 0.038–0.049). When deficits had increased to 75% of the maximum value (FI‐CGA ~0.52), the slope fell to 0.021 (range 0.016–0.027). By the 85th percentile (FI‐CGA ~0.6), the slope had become statistically indistinguishable from 0. CONCLUSION: As predicted by the reliability theory of aging, the rate of deficit accumulation slows with increasing frailty. A FI derived from data routinely collected as part of a CGA can in this way quantify loss of redundancy in older adults. Quantifying loss of redundancy can aid clinical decision‐making; its application to individual prognostication in clinical samples warrants further evaluation.  相似文献   

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Cross-sectional analyses show that an index of aging-associated health/well-being deficits, called the "frailty index", can characterize the aging process in humans. This study provides support for such characterization from a longitudinal analysis of the frailty index properties. The data are from the National Long Term Care Survey assessed longitudinally health and functioning of the U.S. elderly in the period 1982-1999. In cross-sectional analysis, the frailty index exhibits accelerated increase with age till oldest-old ages (95+), with possible deceleration thereafter. Longitudinal analysis confirms the accelerated accumulation of deficits in aging individuals. The time-dynamics of the frailty index is affected by two sex-sensitive processes: (i) selection of robust individuals, resulting in a decline of the mean frailty index with age and (ii) accumulation of deficits associated with physiological aging and its interaction with environment, which results in an accelerated increase of individual frailty index prior to death irrespective of chronological age. Current frailty index levels in individuals are more predictive of death than the index past values. Longitudinal analysis provides strong evidence that the cumulative index of health/well-being deficits can characterize aging-associated processes in humans and predict death better than chronological age during short-term periods.  相似文献   

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OBJECTIVES: To investigate the relationship between accumulated health-related problems (deficits), which define a frailty index in older adults, and mortality in population-based and clinical/institutional-based samples. DESIGN: Cross-sectional and cohort studies. SETTING: Seven population-based and four clinical/institutional surveys in four developed countries. PARTICIPANTS: Thirty-six thousand four hundred twenty-four people (58.5% women) aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: A frailty index was constructed as a proportion of all potential deficits (symptoms, signs, laboratory abnormalities, disabilities) expressed in a given individual. Relative frailty is defined as a proportion of deficits greater than average for age. Measures of deficits differed across the countries but included common elements. RESULTS: In each country, community-dwelling elderly people accumulated deficits at about 3% per year. By contrast, people from clinical/institutional samples showed no relationship between frailty and age. Relative fitness/frailty in both sexes was highly correlated (correlation coefficient >0.95, P<.001) with mortality, although women, at any given age, were frailer and had lower mortality. On average, each unit increase in deficits increased by 4% the hazard rate for mortality (95% confidence interval=0.02-0.06). CONCLUSION: Relative fitness and frailty can be defined in relation to deficit accumulation. In population studies from developed countries, deficit accumulation is robustly associated with mortality and with age. In samples (e.g., clinical/institutional) in which most people are frail, there is no relationship with age, suggesting that there are maximal values of deficit accumulation beyond which survival is unlikely.  相似文献   

9.
BackgroundFrailty is a clinical state of increased vulnerability from aging-associated decline. We aimed to determine if a Thai Frailty Index predicted all-cause mortality in community-dwelling older Thais when accounting for age, gender and socioeconomic status.MethodsData of 8195 subjects aged 60 years and over from the Fourth Thai National Health Examination Survey were used to create the Thai Frailty Index by calculating the ratio of accumulated deficits using a cut-off point of 0.25 to define frailty. The associations were explored using Cox proportional hazard models.ResultsThe mean age of participants was 69.2 years (SD 6.8). The prevalence of frailty was 22.1%. The Thai Frailty Index significantly predicted mortality (hazard ratio = 2.34, 95% CI 2.10–2.61, p < 0.001). The association between frailty and mortality was stronger in males (hazard ratio = 2.71, 95% CI 2.33–3.16). Higher wealth status had a protective effect among non-frail older adults but not among frail ones.ConclusionsIn community-dwelling older Thai adults, the Thai Frailty Index demonstrated a high prevalence of frailty and predicted mortality. Frail older Thai adults did not earn the protective effect of reducing mortality with higher socioeconomic status. Maintaining health rather than accumulating wealth may be better for a longer healthier life for older people in middle income countries.  相似文献   

10.
Differences in frailty between rural and urban older adults have been demonstrated in developed countries. It is not understood how the apparently greater differences in living conditions between different types of regions in China may affect health and outcomes of older Chinese adults. Here, a frailty index (FI) based on the accumulation of health deficits was used to investigate health and survival differences in older Chinese men and women. We studied rural (n = 1121) and urban (n = 2136) older adults (55-97 years old) in the Beijing Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA), of whom 48.9% (rural) and 35.4% (urban) died over 8 years of follow-up. The FI was generated from 35 self-reported health deficits. The mean FI increased exponentially with age (r2 = 0.87) and was higher in women than in men. The death rate increased significantly with increases in the FI, but women showed a lower death rate than did men. The mean FI in urban older adults (0.12 ± 0.10) was lower than that in their rural counterparts (0.14 ± 0.12, p < 0.001). Urban dwellers showed better survival compared with their counterparts in the rural areas. Adjusted by age, sex, and education level, the hazard ratio for death for each increment of the FI was 1.28 for urban people and 1.27 for rural people. Chinese urban dwellers showed better health and survival than rural dwelling older adults. The FI readily summarized health and mortality differences among different geographic regions, reflecting the impact of the environment, socioeconomics, and medical services on deficit accumulation and on survival.  相似文献   

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