The determinants and effects of health expenditure in developed countries

Previous studies of international differences in health spending have been restricted to the use of relatively small samples of cross-sectional data. Our objective here is to re-examine the results of previous work using a sample of 560 pooled time-series and cross-section observations. Results confirm the importance of GDP as a determinant of health spending, with an estimated income elasticity at or around unity, but also suggest that OECD countries should not be regarded as a single, homogeneous group. The importance of some non-income variables is also confirmed, although the direct effect of these factors appears to be small.     

Machines that Go ‘Ping’: Medical Technology and Health Expenditures in OECD Countries

Technology is believed to be a major determinant of increasing health spending. The main difficulty to quantify its effect is to find suitable proxies to measure medical technological innovation. This paper's main contribution is the use of data on approved medical devices and drugs to proxy for medical technology. The effects of these variables on total real per capita health spending are estimated using a panel model for 18 Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries covering the period 1981–2012. The results confirm the substantial cost‐increasing effect of medical technology, which accounts for almost 50% of the explained historical growth of spending. Despite the overall net positive effect of technology, the effect of two subgroups of approvals on expenditure is significantly negative. These subgroups can be thought of as representing ‘incremental medical innovation’, whereas the positive effects are related to radically innovative pharmaceutical products and devices. A separate time series model was estimated for the USA because the FDA approval data in fact only apply to the USA, while they serve as proxies for the other OECD countries. Our empirical model includes an indicator of obesity, and estimations confirm the substantial contribution of this lifestyle variable to health spending growth in the countries studied. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of patented drug price on the share of new medicines across OECD countries

The Government of Canada plans to implement new controls on the prices of patented drugs sold in Canada. The literature indicates that such controls delay drug launches. The Government of Canada, in its cost benefit analysis of the proposed regulatory changes, claims that they do not. To examine this claim, we use recent OECD country level data to estimate regression models of drug launches. These estimates suggest that higher drug list prices increase the number of launches of new medicines; the estimates are larger in the short term than in the longer term. If our estimates have a causal interpretation, then, consistent with the extant literature, drug list price reductions delay availability of new medicines in the OECD countries. We explore the implications of these findings.