WHO absolute fracture risk models (FRAX): Do clinical risk factors improve fracture prediction in older women without osteoporosis?

Bone mineral density (BMD) is a strong predictor of fracture, yet most fractures occur in women without osteoporosis by BMD criteria. To improve fracture risk prediction, the World Health Organization recently developed a country‐specific fracture risk index of clinical risk factors (FRAX) that estimates 10‐year probabilities of hip and major osteoporotic fracture. Within differing baseline BMD categories, we evaluated 6252 women aged 65 or older in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures using FRAX 10‐year probabilities of hip and major osteoporotic fracture (ie, hip, clinical spine, wrist, and humerus) compared with incidence of fractures over 10 years of follow‐up. Overall ability of FRAX to predict fracture risk based on initial BMD T‐score categories (normal, low bone mass, and osteoporosis) was evaluated with receiver‐operating‐characteristic (ROC) analyses using area under the curve (AUC). Over 10 years of follow‐up, 368 women incurred a hip fracture, and 1011 a major osteoporotic fracture. Women with low bone mass represented the majority (n = 3791, 61%); they developed many hip (n = 176, 48%) and major osteoporotic fractures (n = 569, 56%). Among women with normal and low bone mass, FRAX (including BMD) was an overall better predictor of hip fracture risk (AUC = 0.78 and 0.70, respectively) than major osteoporotic fractures (AUC = 0.64 and 0.62). Simpler models (eg, age + prior fracture) had similar AUCs to FRAX, including among women for whom primary prevention is sought (no prior fracture or osteoporosis by BMD). The FRAX and simpler models predict 10‐year risk of incident hip and major osteoporotic fractures in older US women with normal or low bone mass. © 2011 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research     

Serum Levels of a Cathepsin‐K Generated Periostin Fragment Predict Incident Low‐Trauma Fractures in Postmenopausal Women Independently of BMD and FRAX

Periostin is a matricellular protein involved in bone formation and bone matrix organization, but it is also produced by other tissues. Its circulating levels have been weakly associated with bone microstructure and prevalent fractures, possibly because periostin measured by the current commercial assays does not specifically reflect bone metabolism. In this context, we developed a new ELISA for a periostin fragment resulting from cathepsin K digestion (K‐Postn). We hypothesized that circulating K‐Postn levels could be associated with bone fragility. A total of 695 women (age 65.0 ± 1.5 years), enrolled in the Geneva Retirees Cohort (GERICO), were prospectively evaluated over 4.7 ± 1.9 years for the occurrence of low‐trauma fractures. At baseline, we measured serum periostin, K‐Postn, and bone turnover markers (BTMs), distal radius and tibia microstructure by HR‐pQCT, hip and lumbar spine aBMD by DXA, and estimated fracture probability using the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX). Sixty‐six women sustained a low‐trauma clinical fracture during the follow‐up. Total periostin was not associated with fractures (HR [95% CI] per SD: 1.19 [0.89 to 1.59], p = 0.24). In contrast, K‐Postn was significantly higher in the fracture versus nonfracture group (57.5 ± 36.6 ng/mL versus 42.5 ± 23.4 ng/mL, p < 0.001) and associated with fracture risk (HR [95%CI] per SD: 2.14 [1.54 to 2.97], p < 0.001). After adjustment for aBMD, FRAX, bone microstructure, or BTMs, K‐Postn remained significantly associated with fracture risk. The performance of the fracture prediction models was improved by adding K‐Postn to aBMD or FRAX (Harrell C index for fracture: 0.70 for aBMD + K‐Post versus 0.58 for aBMD alone, p = 0.001; 0.73 for FRAX + K‐Postn versus 0.65 for FRAX alone, p = 0.005). Circulating K‐Postn predicts incident fractures independently of BMD, BTMs, and FRAX in postmenopausal women. Hence measurement of a periostin fragment resulting from in vivo cathepsin K digestion may help to identify subjects at high risk of fracture. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research     

Effect of alendronate for reducing fracture by FRAX score and femoral neck bone mineral density: the Fracture Intervention Trial

The WHO Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX; http://www.shef.ac.uk/FRAX ) estimates the 10‐year probability of major osteoporotic fracture. Clodronate and bazedoxifene reduced nonvertebral and clinical fracture more effectively on a relative scale in women with higher FRAX scores. We used data from the Fracture Intervention Trial (FIT) to evaluate the interaction between FRAX score and treatment with alendronate. We combined the Clinical Fracture (CF) arm and Vertebral Fracture (VF) arm of FIT. The CF and VF arm of FIT randomized 4432 and 2027 women, respectively, to placebo or alendronate for 4 and 3 years, respectively. FRAX risk factors were assessed at baseline. FRAX scores were calculated by WHO. We used Poisson regression models to assess the interaction between alendronate and FRAX score on the risk of nonvertebral, clinical, major osteoporotic, and radiographic vertebral fractures. Overall, alendronate significantly reduced the risk of nonvertebral fracture (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75–0.99), but the effect was greater for femoral neck (FN) bone mineral density (BMD) T‐score ≤ ?2.5 (IRR 0.76; 95% CI, 0.62–0.93) than for FN T‐score > ?2.5 (IRR 0.96; 95% CI, 0.80–1.16) (p = 0.02, interaction between alendronate and FN BMD). However, there was no evidence of an interaction between alendronate and FRAX score with FN BMD for risk of nonvertebral fracture (interaction p = 0.61). The absolute benefit of alendronate was greatest among women with highest FRAX scores. Results were similar for clinical fractures, major osteoporotic fractures, and radiographic vertebral fractures and whether or not FRAX scores included FN BMD. Among this cohort of women with low bone mass there was no significant interaction between FRAX score and alendronate for nonvertebral, clinical or major osteoporotic fractures, or radiographic vertebral fractures. These results suggest that the effect of alendronate on a relative scale does not vary by FRAX score. A randomized controlled trial testing the effect of antifracture agents among women with high FRAX score but without osteoporosis is warranted. © 2012 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

Estimated Lean Mass and Fat Mass Differentially Affect Femoral Bone Density and Strength Index but Are Not FRAX Independent Risk Factors for Fracture

Although increasing body weight has been regarded as protective against osteoporosis and fractures, there is accumulating evidence that fat mass adversely affects skeletal health compared with lean mass. We examined skeletal health as a function of estimated total body lean and fat mass in 40,050 women and 3600 men age ≥50 years at the time of baseline dual‐energy X‐ray absorptiometry (DXA) testing from a clinical registry from Manitoba, Canada. Femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD), strength index (SI), cross‐sectional area (CSA), and cross‐sectional moment of inertia (CSMI) were derived from DXA. Multivariable models showed that increasing lean mass was associated with near‐linear increases in femoral BMD, CSA, and CSMI in both women and men, whereas increasing fat mass showed a small initial increase in these measurements followed by a plateau. In contrast, femoral SI was relatively unaffected by increasing lean mass but was associated with a continuous linear decline with increasing fat mass, which should predict higher fracture risk. During mean 5‐year follow‐up, incident major osteoporosis fractures and hip fractures were observed in 2505 women and 180 men (626 and 45 hip fractures, respectively). After adjustment for fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) scores (with or without BMD), we found no evidence that lean mass, fat mass, or femoral SI affected prediction of major osteoporosis fractures or hip fractures. Findings were similar in men and women, without significant interactions with sex or obesity. In conclusion, skeletal adaptation to increasing lean mass was positively associated with BMD but had no effect on femoral SI, whereas increasing fat mass had no effect on BMD but adversely affected femoral SI. Greater fat mass was not independently associated with a greater risk of fractures over 5‐year follow‐up. FRAX robustly predicts fractures and was not affected by variations in body composition. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

The Effect of Abaloparatide‐SC on Fracture Risk Is Independent of Baseline FRAX Fracture Probability: A Post Hoc Analysis of the ACTIVE Study

Daily subcutaneous (SC) injections of the investigational drug abaloparatide‐SC (80 mcg) for 18 months significantly decrease the risk of vertebral and nonvertebral fracture compared with placebo in postmenopausal women. We examined the efficacy of abaloparatide‐SC as a function of baseline fracture risk, assessed using the FRAX tool. Baseline clinical risk factors (age, body mass index [BMI], prior fracture, glucocorticoid use, rheumatoid arthritis, and smoking) were entered into country‐specific FRAX models to calculate the 10‐year probability of major osteoporotic fractures, with or without femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). The interaction between probability of a major osteoporotic fracture and treatment efficacy was examined by a Poisson regression. A total of 821 women randomized to placebo and 824 women to abaloparatide‐SC, mean age 69 years in both groups, were followed for up to 2 years. At baseline, the 10‐year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (with BMD) ranged from 2.3% to 57.5% (mean 13.2%). Treatment with abaloparatide‐SC was associated with a 69% (95% confidence interval [CI] 38–85%) decrease in major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and a 43% (95% CI 9–64%) decrease in any clinical fracture compared with placebo. For all outcomes, hazard ratios tended to decrease (ie, greater efficacy) with increasing fracture probability. Whereas the interaction approached significance for the outcome of any fracture (p = 0.11), there was no statistically significant interaction for any of the fracture outcomes. Similar results were noted when FRAX probability was computed without BMD. Efficacy of abaloparatide‐SC to decrease the risk of major osteoporotic fracture or any clinical fracture in postmenopausal women with low BMD and/or prior fracture appears independent of baseline fracture probability. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

Prediction of fracture risk in men: a cohort study

FRAX is a tool that identifies individuals with high fracture risk who will benefit from pharmacological treatment of osteoporosis. However, a majority of fractures among elderly occur in people without osteoporosis and most occur after a fall. Our aim was to accurately identify men with a high future risk of fracture, independent of cause. In the population‐based Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) and using survival analysis we studied different models' prognostic values (R²) for any fracture and hip fracture within 10 years from age 50 (n = 2322), 60 (n = 1852), 71 (n = 1221), and 82 (n = 526) years. During the total follow‐up period from age 50 years, 897 fractures occurred in 585 individuals. Of these, 281 were hip fractures occurring in 189 individuals. The rates of any fracture were 5.7/1000 person‐years at risk from age 50 years and 25.9/1000 person‐years at risk from age 82 years. Corresponding hip fractures rates were 2.9 and 11.7/1000 person‐years at risk. The FRAX model included all variables in FRAX except bone mineral density. The full model combining FRAX variables, comorbidity, medications, and behavioral factors explained 25% to 45% of all fractures and 80% to 92% of hip fractures, depending on age. The corresponding prognostic values of the FRAX model were 7% to 17% for all fractures and 41% to 60% for hip fractures. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) comparing the full model with the FRAX model ranged between 40% and 53% for any fracture and between 40% and 87% for hip fracture. Within the highest quintile of predicted fracture risk with the full model, one‐third of the men will have a fracture within 10 years after age 71 years and two‐thirds after age 82 years. We conclude that the addition of comorbidity, medication, and behavioral factors to the clinical components of FRAX can substantially improve the ability to identify men at high risk of fracture, especially hip fracture. © 2012 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

Evaluation of the FRAX and Garvan fracture risk calculators in older women

Fracture risk calculators estimate the absolute risk of osteoporotic fractures. We investigated the performance of the FRAX and Garvan Institute fracture risk calculators in healthy, older, New Zealand, postmenopausal women with normal bone mineral density (BMD) for their age. Fractures were ascertained in women initially enrolled in a 5‐year trial of calcium supplements and followed on average for 8.8 years. Baseline data (1422 women, mean age 74 years, mean femoral neck BMD T‐score –1.3) were used to estimate fracture risk during follow‐up using the FRAX and Garvan calculators. The FRAX–New Zealand tool was used both with and without baseline BMD. The discrimination of the calculators was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic curves. The calibration was assessed by comparing estimated risk of fracture with fracture incidence across a range of estimated fracture risks and clinical factors. For each fracture subtype, the calculators had comparable moderate predictive discriminative ability (AUC range: hip fracture 0.67–0.70; osteoporotic fracture 0.62–0.64; any fracture 0.60–0.63) that was similar to that of models using only age and BMD. The Garvan calculator was well calibrated for osteoporotic fractures but overestimated hip fractures. FRAX with BMD underestimated osteoporotic and hip fractures. FRAX without BMD underestimated osteoporotic and overestimated hip fractures. In summary, none of the calculators provided better discrimination than models based on age and BMD, and their discriminative ability was only moderate, which may limit their clinical utility. The calibration varied, suggesting that the calculators should be validated in local cohorts before clinical use. © 2011 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

The FRAX tool in French women: How well does it describe the real incidence of fracture in the OFELY cohort

The FRAX tool estimates an individual's fracture probability over 10 years from clinical risk factors with or without bone mineral density (BMD) measurement. The aim of our study was to compare the predicted fracture probabilities and the observed incidence of fracture in French women during a 10‐year follow‐up. The probabilities of fracture at four major sites (hip, clinical spine, shoulder, or wrist) and at the hip were calculated with the FRAX tool in 867 women aged 40 years and over from the Os des Femmes de Lyon (OFELY) cohort.The incidence of fracture was observed over 10 years. Thus 82 women sustained 95 incident major osteoporotic (OP) fractures including 17 fractures at the hip. In women aged at least 65 years (n = 229), the 10‐year predicted probabilities of fracture with BMD were 13% for major OP fractures and 5% for hip fractures, contrasting with 3.6% and 0.5% in women younger than 65 years (p < .0001). The predicted probabilities of both major OP and hip fractures were significantly higher in women with osteoporosis (n = 77, 18% and 10%) and osteopenia (n= 390, 6% and 2%) compared with women with normal BMD (n = 208, 3% and <1%; p < .0001. The predicted probabilities of fracture were two and five times higher in women who sustained an incident major OP fracture and a hip fracture compared with women who did not (p < .0001). Nevertheless, among women aged at least 65 years with low BMD values (T‐score ≤ –1; n = 199), the 10‐year predicted probability of major OP fracture with BMD was 48% lower than the observed incidence of fractures (p < .01). A 10‐year probability of major OP fracture higher than 12% identified more women with incident fractures than did BMD in the osteoporotic range (p < .05). In French women from the OFELY cohort, the observed incidence of fragility fractures over 10 years increased with age following a pattern similar to the predicted probabilities given by the FRAX tool. However, in women aged at least 65 years with low BMD, the observed incidence of fractures was substantially higher than the predicted probability. © 2010 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

Sarcopenia Definitions as Predictors of Fracture Risk Independent of FRAX®, Falls,and BMD in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study: A Meta-Analysis

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-derived appendicular lean mass/height² (ALM/ht²) is the most commonly used estimate of muscle mass in the assessment of sarcopenia, but its predictive value for fracture is substantially attenuated by femoral neck (fn) bone mineral density (BMD). We investigated predictive value of 11 sarcopenia definitions for incident fracture, independent of fnBMD, fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX^®) probability, and prior falls, using an extension of Poisson regression in US, Sweden, and Hong Kong Osteoporois Fractures in Men Study (MrOS) cohorts. Definitions tested were those of Baumgartner and Delmonico (ALM/ht² only), Morley, the International Working Group on Sarcopenia, European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (EWGSOP1 and 2), Asian Working Group on Sarcopenia, Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH) 1 and 2 (using ALM/body mass index [BMI], incorporating muscle strength and/or physical performance measures plus ALM/ht²), and Sarcopenia Definitions and Outcomes Consortium (gait speed and grip strength). Associations were adjusted for age and time since baseline and reported as hazard ratio (HR) for first incident fracture, here major osteoporotic fracture (MOF; clinical vertebral, hip, distal forearm, proximal humerus). Further analyses adjusted additionally for FRAX-MOF probability (n = 7531; calculated ± fnBMD), prior falls (y/n), or fnBMD T-score. Results were synthesized by meta-analysis. In 5660 men in USA, 2764 Sweden and 1987 Hong Kong (mean ages 73.5, 75.4, and 72.4 years, respectively), sarcopenia prevalence ranged from 0.5% to 35%. Sarcopenia status, by all definitions except those of FNIH, was associated with incident MOF (HR = 1.39 to 2.07). Associations were robust to adjustment for prior falls or FRAX probability (without fnBMD); adjustment for fnBMD T-score attenuated associations. EWGSOP2 severe sarcopenia (incorporating chair stand time, gait speed, and grip strength plus ALM) was most predictive, albeit at low prevalence, and appeared only modestly influenced by inclusion of fnBMD. In conclusion, the predictive value for fracture of sarcopenia definitions based on ALM is reduced by adjustment for fnBMD but strengthened by additional inclusion of physical performance measures. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).     

Novel methods to evaluate fracture risk models

Fracture prediction models help to identify individuals at high risk who may benefit from treatment. Area under the curve (AUC) is used to compare prediction models. However, the AUC has limitations and may miss important differences between models. Novel reclassification methods quantify how accurately models classify patients who benefit from treatment and the proportion of patients above/below treatment thresholds. We applied two reclassification methods, using the National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF) treatment thresholds, to compare two risk models: femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) and age (simple model) and FRAX (FRAX model). The Pepe method classifies based on case/noncase status and examines the proportion of each above and below thresholds. The Cook method examines fracture rates above and below thresholds. We applied these to the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF). There were 6036 (1037 fractures) and 6232 (389 fractures) participants with complete data for major osteoporotic and hip fracture, respectively. Both models for major osteoporotic fracture (0.68 versus 0.69) and hip fracture (0.75 versus 0.76) had similar AUCs. In contrast, using reclassification methods, each model classified a substantial number of women differently. Using the Pepe method, the FRAX model (versus the simple model) missed treating 70 (7%) cases of major osteoporotic fracture but avoided treating 285 (6%) noncases. For hip fracture, the FRAX model missed treating 31 (8%) cases but avoided treating 1026 (18%) noncases. The Cook method (both models, both fracture outcomes) had similar fracture rates above/below the treatment thresholds. Compared with the AUC, new methods provide more detailed information about how models classify patients. © 2011 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research