Causes of death: an assessment of global patterns of mortality around 1985

Cause-of-death statistics are available for virtually the entire population of the developed world (1.17 billion in 1985) and thus estimates of the mortality pattern in these countries can be made with some confidence, notwithstanding the artefacts which arise due to differences in diagnostic and certification practices between countries. In the developing countries, cause-of-death estimation is much more difficult due to the paucity of mortality statistics. Nonetheless, there are several sources of information on mortality, ranging from surveillance systems and small-scale community studies to complete vital registration, which can be exploited to estimate mortality patterns. Of the 50 million deaths which occur throughout the world each year, roughly 39 million (78%) occur in developing countries. For the developing countries as a whole, infectious and parasitic diseases are estimated to have accounted for almost one-half of all deaths in 1985. Diarrhoeal diseases, acute respiratory diseases (primarily pneumonia) and tuberculosis each claimed about 3-5 million deaths in the developing world in the mid-1980s, with a further 2.6 million due to measles and whooping cough. Perinatal conditions are estimated to have been responsible for a little over 3.2 million deaths in 1985 in developing countries, one-quarter of which were due to neonatal tetanus alone. Maternal causes claimed the lives of about 0.5 million women. At the same time, the chronic diseases are emerging as a leading cause of death in several regions of the developing world, particularly Latin America and East Asia. Circulatory and specific degenerative diseases are estimated to have caused about 6.5 million deaths in 1985. Chronic lung diseases and cancer are each thought to have claimed about 2.5 million lives in 1985. External causes also probably accounted for 2.0-2.5 million deaths.     

Neonatal cause-of-death estimates for the early and late neonatal periods for 194 countries: 2000–2013

ObjectiveTo estimate cause-of-death distributions in the early (0–6 days of age) and late (7–27 days of age) neonatal periods, for 194 countries between 2000 and 2013.MethodsFor 65 countries with high-quality vital registration, we used each country’s observed early and late neonatal proportional cause distributions. For the remaining 129 countries, we used multinomial logistic models to estimate these distributions. For countries with low child mortality we used vital registration data as inputs and for countries with high child mortality we used neonatal cause-of-death distribution data from studies in similar settings. We applied cause-specific proportions to neonatal death estimates from the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, by country and year, to estimate cause-specific risks and numbers of deaths.FindingsOver time, neonatal deaths decreased for most causes. Of the 2.8 million neonatal deaths in 2013, 0.99 million deaths (uncertainty range: 0.70–1.31) were estimated to be caused by preterm birth complications, 0.64 million (uncertainty range: 0.46–0.84) by intrapartum complications and 0.43 million (uncertainty range: 0.22–0.66) by sepsis and other severe infections. Preterm birth (40.8%) and intrapartum complications (27.0%) accounted for most early neonatal deaths while infections caused nearly half of late neonatal deaths. Preterm birth complications were the leading cause of death in all regions of the world.ConclusionThe neonatal cause-of-death distribution differs between the early and late periods and varies with neonatal mortality rate level. To reduce neonatal deaths, effective interventions to address these causes must be incorporated into policy decisions.     

Estimating mortality and causes of death in Turkey: methods, results and policy implications

BACKGROUND: Cause-specific mortality statistics are primary evidence for health policy formulation, programme evaluation, and epidemiological research. In Turkey, a partially functioning vital registration system in urban areas yields fragmentary evidence on levels and causes of mortality. This article discusses the application of innovative methods to develop national mortality estimates in Turkey, and their implications for national health development policies. METHODS: Child mortality levels from the Demography and Health Survey (DHS) were applied to model life tables to estimate age-specific death rates. Reported causes of death from urban areas were adjusted using re-distribution algorithms from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. Rural cause structure was estimated from epidemiological models. Local epidemiological data was used to adjust model-based estimates. RESULTS: Life expectancy at birth in 2000 was estimated to be 67.7 years (males) and 71.9 years (females), about 8-10 years lower than in Western Europe. Leading causes of death include major vascular diseases (ischaemic heart disease, stroke) causing 35-38% of deaths, chronic obstructive lung disease and lung cancer in men, but also perinatal causes, lower respiratory infections and diarrhoeal diseases. Injuries cause about 6-8% of deaths, although this may be an underestimate. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality estimates are uncertain in Turkey, given the poor quality of death registration systems. Application of burden of disease methods suggests that there has been progress along the epidemiological transition. Key health development strategies for Turkey include improved access to communicable disease control technologies, and urgent attention to the development of a reliable, nationally representative health information system.     

Contemporary patterns of Pacific Island mortality

BACKGROUND: The Pacific Island countries are at different stages of the demographic and epidemiological transitions. The availability of accurate and current mortality data is of vital importance for priority setting in health. Available mortality data generally underestimate death rates among both children and adults. In many Pacific Island populations, little is reliably known about levels and causes of death, particularly among adults. METHODS: The results of two comprehensive approaches to obtaining mortality estimates are reported. First, a systematic review of available life expectancy and infant mortality information reported by countries from 1990 onwards was undertaken and evaluated with respect to quality, and a final "best estimate" was established. Methods were based on registered deaths and indirect demographic methods. The second approach consisted of a demographic evaluation of vital registration data for completeness, with death rates adjusted accordingly, or where vital registration was not available, the application of new model life table methods to generate life tables from estimates of child mortality, as used by the World Health Organisation (WHO). RESULTS: This analysis reveals substantial uncertainty about mortality conditions in Pacific Island populations. In some countries, life expectancy variations of 10 years or more were recorded in the 1990s, depending on the source. Best approaches suggest that life expectancy (at birth) varied considerably, from levels of around 55-60 years in some Melanesian and Micronesian states to levels above 70 years in low-mortality countries. The principal issues with regard to uncertainty around mortality levels include underenumerated vital registration data; annual stochastic fluctuations in mortality in small populations; errors in the imputation of adult mortality from infant and childhood rates; implausible results from indirect demographic methods; use of possibly inappropriate model life tables to adjust death data or for indirect methods; and inadequately described and implausible projections. The WHO model life table method based on adjusted vital registration generally yielded results similar to those suggested by an evaluation of published data, with some exceptions, which are further discussed. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates the urgent need to improve infrastructure, training, and resources for routine mortality estimation in many Pacific Island countries in order to better inform and evaluate health and public policy.     

Estimating the causes of 4 million neonatal deaths in the year 2000

BACKGROUND: Information on cause-of-death is lacking for 98% of the world's 4 million neonatal deaths that occur in countries with inadequate vital registration (VR). Our aim was to estimate, by country for the year 2000, the distribution of neonatal deaths across programme-relevant causes including: asphyxia, preterm birth, congenital abnormalities, sepsis/pneumonia, neonatal tetanus, diarrhoea, and 'other'. METHODS: Two sources of neonatal cause-of-death data were examined: VR datasets for countries with high coverage (>90%), and published and unpublished studies identified through systematic searches. Multinomial regression was used to model the distribution of neonatal deaths. A VR-based model was used to estimate the distribution of causes of death for 37 low-mortality countries without national data. A study-based model was applied to obtain estimates for 111 high-mortality countries. Uncertainty estimates were derived using the jackknife approach. RESULTS: Data from 44 countries with VR (96 797 neonatal deaths) and from 56 studies (29 countries, 13 685 neonatal deaths) met inclusion criteria. The distribution of reported causes of death varied substantially between countries and across studies. Based on 193 countries, the major causes of neonatal death globally were estimated to be infections (sepsis/pneumonia, tetanus, and diarrhoea, 35%), preterm birth (28%), and asphyxia (23%). Regional variation is important. Substantial uncertainty surrounds these estimates. CONCLUSIONS: This exercise highlights the lack of reliable cause-of-death data in the settings in which most neonatal deaths occur. Complex statistical models are not a panacea. Representative data with comparable case definitions and consistent hierarchical cause-of-death attribution are required.     

Compiling mortality statistics from civil registration systems in Viet Nam: the long road ahead

Accurate mortality statistics, needed for population health assessment, health policy and research, are best derived from data in vital registration systems. However, mortality statistics from vital registration systems are not available for several countries including Viet Nam. We used a mixed methods case study approach to assess vital registration operations in 2006 in three provinces in Viet Nam (Hòa Bình, Thùa Thiên–Hué and Bình Duong), and provide recommendations to strengthen vital registration systems in the country. For each province we developed life tables from population and mortality data compiled by sex and age group. Demographic methods were used to estimate completeness of death registration as an indicator of vital registration performance. Qualitative methods (document review, key informant interviews and focus group discussions) were used to assess administrative, technical and societal aspects of vital registration systems. Completeness of death registration was low in all three provinces. Problems were identified with the legal framework for registration of early neonatal deaths and deaths of temporary residents or migrants. The system does not conform to international standards for reporting cause of death or for recording detailed statistics by age, sex and cause of death. Capacity-building along with an intersectoral coordination committee involving the Ministries of Justice and Health and the General Statistics Office would improve the vital registration system, especially with regard to procedures for death registration. There appears to be strong political support for sentinel surveillance systems to generate reliable mortality statistics in Viet Nam.     

No cry at birth: global estimates of intrapartum stillbirths and intrapartum-related neonatal deaths

OBJECTIVE: Fewer than 3% of 4 million annual neonatal deaths occur in countries with reliable vital registration (VR) data. Global estimates for asphyxia-related neonatal deaths vary from 0.7 to 1.2 million. Estimates for intrapartum stillbirths are not available. We aimed to estimate the numbers of intrapartum-related neonatal deaths and intrapartum stillbirths in the year 2000. METHODS: Sources of data on neonatal death included: vital registration (VR) data on neonatal death from countries with full (> 90%) VR coverage (48 countries, n = 97,297); studies identified through literature searches (> 4000 abstracts) and meeting inclusion criteria (46 populations, 30 countries, n = 12,355). A regression model was fitted to cause-specific proportionate mortality data from VR and the literature. Predicted cause-specific proportions were applied to the number of neonatal deaths by country, and summed to a global total. Intrapartum stillbirths were estimated using median cause-specific mortality rate by country (73 populations, 52 countries, n = 46,779) or the subregional median in the absence of country data. FINDINGS: Intrapartum-related neonatal deaths were estimated at 0.904 million (uncertainty 0.65-1.17), equivalent to 23% of the global total of 4 million neonatal deaths. Country-level model predictions compared well with population-based data sets not included in the input data. An estimated 1.02 million intrapartum stillbirths (0.66-1.48 million) occur annually, comprising 26% of global stillbirths. CONCLUSION: Intrapartum-related neonatal deaths account for almost 10% of deaths in children aged under 5 years. Intrapartum stillbirths are a huge and invisible problem, but are potentially preventable. Programmatic attention and improved information are required.     

Local-level mortality surveillance in resource-limited settings: a case study of Cape Town highlights disparities in health

Objective

To identify the leading causes of mortality and premature mortality in Cape Town, South Africa, and its subdistricts, and to compare levels of mortality between subdistricts.

Methods

Cape Town mortality data for the period 2001–2006 were analysed by age, cause of death and sex. Cause-of-death codes were aggregated into three main cause groups: (i) pre-transitional causes (e.g. communicable diseases, maternal causes, perinatal conditions and nutritional deficiencies), (ii) noncommunicable diseases and (iii) injuries. Premature mortality was calculated in years of life lost (YLLs). Population estimates for the Cape Town Metro district were used to calculate age-specific rates per 100 000 population, which were then age-standardized and compared across subdistricts.

Findings

The pattern of mortality in Cape Town reflects the quadruple burden of disease observed in the national cause-of-death profile, with HIV/AIDS, other infectious diseases, injuries and noncommunicable diseases all accounting for a significant proportion of deaths. HIV/AIDS has replaced homicide as the leading cause of death. HIV/AIDS, homicide, tuberculosis and road traffic injuries accounted for 44% of all premature mortality. Khayelitsha, the poorest subdistrict, had the highest levels of mortality for all main cause groups.

Conclusion

Local mortality surveillance highlights the differential needs of the population of Cape Town and provides a wealth of data to inform planning and implementation of targeted interventions. Multisectoral interventions will be required to reduce the burden of disease.     

Predicting the distribution of under-five deaths by cause in countries without adequate vital registration systems

BACKGROUND: The absence of complete vital registration and atypical nature of the locations where epidemiological studies of cause of death in children are conducted make it difficult to know the true distribution of child deaths by cause in developing countries. A credible method is needed for generating valid estimates of this distribution for countries without adequate vital registration systems. METHODS: A systematic review was undertaken of all studies published since 1980 reporting under-5 mortality by cause. Causes of death were standardized across studies, and information was collected on the characteristics of each study and its population. A meta-regression model was used to relate these characteristics to the various proportional mortality outcomes, and predict the distribution in national populations of known characteristics. In all, 46 studies met the inclusion criteria. RESULTS: Proportional mortality outcomes were significantly associated with region, mortality level, and exposure to malaria; coverage of measles vaccination, safe delivery care, and safe water; study year, age of children under surveillance, and method used to establish definitive cause of death. In sub-Saharan Africa and in South Asia, the predicted distribution of deaths by cause was: pneumonia (23% and 23%), malaria (24% and <1%), diarrhoea (22% and 23%), 'neonatal and other' (29% and 52%), measles (2% and 1%). CONCLUSIONS: For countries without adequate vital registration, it is possible to estimate the proportional distribution of child deaths by cause by exploiting systematic associations between this distribution and the characteristics of the populations in which it has been studied, controlling for design features of the studies themselves.     

Integrated multisource estimates of mortality for Thailand in 2005

Estimates of mortality in Thailand during 2005 have been published, integrating multiple data sources including national vital registration and a national follow-up cluster sample, covering both deaths in health facilities (approximately one-third) and elsewhere. The methodological challenge is to make the best use of the existing data, supplemented by additional data that are feasible to obtain, in order to arrive at the best possible overall estimates of mortality. In this case, information from the national vital registration database was supplemented by a verbal autopsy survey of approximately 2.5% of deaths, the latter being used to validate routine cause-of-death data and information from medical records. This led to a revised national cause-specific mortality envelope for Thailand in 2005, amounting to 447,104 deaths. However, difficulties over standardizing verbal autopsy interpretation may mean that there are still some uncertainties in these revised estimates.     

Trends in injury mortality among young people in the European Union: a report from the EURORISC working group.

PURPOSE: To examine the trends in injury mortality among young people aged 15-24 years residing in the 15 current member states of the European Union between 1984 and 1993. METHODS: As part of a European Commission-funded project entitled European Review of Injury Surveillance and Control (EURORISC), mortality data for all externally caused physical injuries (International Classification of Disease Codes E800-999) were obtained from the World Health Organization. Data were analyzed to generate age-specific injury mortality rates and proportional differences in rates over the study period. Linear regression was used to represent the linear component of the mortality profile. RESULTS: Almost a quarter of a million young people died as a result of sustaining an externally caused physical injury (either unintentional or intentional) in the study countries between 1984 and 1993. Injury accounted for two-thirds of all deaths in this age group. Over three-quarters (76%) of deaths were due to unintentional injury, a further 17% to self-inflicted injuries, and the remaining 7% to homicide and other violent causes. Motor vehicle traffic fatalities accounted for 84% of unintentional injury deaths. Although a decline in injury mortality was observed throughout Europe, rates of mortality owing to both unintentional injuries and suicide varied widely among study countries at both the beginning and end of the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Whereas injury mortality rates in young people in most European countries are lower than in other parts of the world (including the United States), injuries represent a major public health problem in the European Union. The death toll from motor vehicle traffic crashes is a particular cause for concern.     

Unintentional injury mortality in India, 2005: Nationally representative mortality survey of 1.1 million homes

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Unintentional injuries are an important cause of death in India. However, no reliable nationally representative estimates of unintentional injury deaths are available. Thus, we examined unintentional injury deaths in a nationally representative mortality survey. METHODS: Trained field staff interviewed a living relative of those who had died during 2001-03. The verbal autopsy reports were sent to two of the130 trained physicians, who independently assigned an ICD-10 code to each death. Discrepancies were resolved through reconciliation and adjudication. Proportionate cause specific mortality was used to produce national unintentional injury mortality estimates based on United Nations population and death estimates. RESULTS: In 2005, unintentional injury caused 648 000 deaths (7% of all deaths; 58/100 000 population). Unintentional injury mortality rates were higher among males than females, and in rural versus urban areas. Road traffic injuries (185 000 deaths; 29% of all unintentional injury deaths), falls (160 000 deaths, 25%) and drowning (73 000 deaths, 11%) were the three leading causes of unintentional injury mortality, with fire-related injury causing 5% of these deaths. The highest unintentional mortality rates were in those aged 70 years or older (410/100 000). CONCLUSIONS: These direct estimates of unintentional injury deaths in India (0.6 million) are lower than WHO indirect estimates (0.8 million), but double the estimates which rely on police reports (0.3 million). Importantly, they revise upward the mortality due to falls, particularly in the elderly, and revise downward mortality due to fires. Ongoing monitoring of injury mortality will enable development of evidence based injury prevention programs.     

Availability and quality of cause-of-death data for estimating the global burden of injuries

Objective

To assess the availability and quality of global death registration data used for estimating injury mortality.

Methods

The completeness and coverage of recent national death registration data from the World Health Organization mortality database were assessed. The quality of data on a specific cause of injury death was judged high if fewer than 20% of deaths were attributed to any of several partially specified causes of injury, such as “unspecified unintentional injury”.

Findings

Recent death registration data were available for 83 countries, comprising 28% of the global population. They included most high-income countries, most countries in Latin America and several in central Asia and the Caribbean. Categories commonly used for partially specified external causes of injury resulting in death included “undetermined intent,” “unspecified mechanism of unintentional injury,” “unspecified road injury” and “unspecified mechanism of homicide”. Only 20 countries had high-quality data. Nevertheless, because the partially specified categories do contain some information about injury mechanisms, reliable estimates of deaths due to specific external causes of injury, such as road injury, suicide and homicide, could be derived for many more countries.

Conclusion

Only 20 countries had high-quality death registration data that could be used for estimating injury mortality because injury deaths were frequently classified using imprecise partially specified categories. Analytical methods that can derive national estimates of injury mortality from alternative data sources are needed for countries without reliable death registration systems.     

Global mortality trends and patterns in older women

Objective

To describe mortality patterns in women older than 50 years in light of the growth, seen in almost all countries, in the absolute number of females in this age group and in the proportion of the female population comprising older women.

Methods

National death record data and World Health Organization estimates of life expectancy and causes of death in women older than 50 years were analysed. Projections of trends in mortality, by cause, at older ages were also made.

Findings

In both developed and developing countries, the leading causes of death among older women were cardiovascular diseases and cancers. In countries with death registration data, cardiovascular and (to a lesser extent) cancer mortality appears to have declined in older women in recent decades and this decline has resulted in improved life expectancy at age 50. If these trends continue, deaths in older women are still expected to increase in number because of population growth and ageing.

Conclusion

Noncommunicable diseases, especially cardiovascular diseases and cancers, are expected to cause an increasing share of women’s deaths in low- and middle-income countries owing to the ageing of the population and to reductions in child and maternal deaths. Health systems must adjust accordingly, perhaps by drawing on lessons from high-income countries that have succeeded in reducing mortality from noncommunicable diseases.     

Estimated causes of death in Thailand, 2005: implications for health policy

Background  

Almost 400,000 deaths are registered each year in Thailand. Their value for public health policy and planning is greatly diminished by incomplete registration of deaths and by concerns about the quality of cause-of-death information. This arises from misclassification of specified causes of death, particularly in hospitals, as well as from extensive use of ill-defined and vague codes to attribute the underlying cause of death. Detailed investigations of a sample of deaths in and out of hospital were carried out to identify misclassification of causes and thus derive a best estimate of national mortality patterns by age, sex, and cause of death.     

A critical assessment of mortality statistics in Thailand: potential for improvements

This study evaluates the collection and flow of mortality and cause-of-death (COD) data in Thailand, identifying areas of weakness and presenting potential approaches to improve these statistics. Methods include systems analysis, literature review, and the application of the Health Metrics Network (HMN) self-assessment tool by key stakeholders. We identified two weaknesses underlying incompleteness of death registration and inaccuracy of COD attribution: problems in recording events or certifying deaths, and problems in transferring information from death certificates to death registers. Deaths occurring outside health facilities, representing 65% of all deaths in Thailand, contribute to the inaccuracy of cause-of-death data because they must be certified by village heads with limited knowledge and expertise in cause-of-death attribution. However, problems also exist with in-hospital cause-of-death certification by physicians. Priority should be given to training medical personnel in death certification, review of medical records by health personnel in district hospitals, and use of verbal autopsy techniques for assessing internal consistency. This should be coupled with stronger collaboration with district registrars for the 65% of deaths that occur outside hospitals. Training of physicians and data coders and harmonization of death certificates and registries would improve COD data for the 35% of deaths that take place in hospital. Public awareness of the importance of registering all deaths and the application of registration requirements prior to funerals would also improve coverage, though enforcement would be difficult.     

Verbal autopsy: current practices and challenges

Cause-of-death data derived from verbal autopsy (VA) are increasingly used for health planning, priority setting, monitoring and evaluation in countries with incomplete or no vital registration systems. In some regions of the world it is the only method available to obtain estimates on the distribution of causes of death. Currently, the VA method is routinely used at over 35 sites, mainly in Africa and Asia. In this paper, we present an overview of the VA process and the results of a review of VA tools and operating procedures used at demographic surveillance sites and sample vital registration systems. We asked for information from 36 field sites about field-operating procedures and reviewed 18 verbal autopsy questionnaires and 10 cause-of-death lists used in 13 countries. The format and content of VA questionnaires, field-operating procedures, cause-of-death lists and the procedures to derive causes of death from VA process varied substantially among sites. We discuss the consequences of using varied methods and conclude that the VA tools and procedures must be standardized and reliable in order to make accurate national and international comparisons of VA data. We also highlight further steps needed in the development of a standard VA process.     

1987～2003年卫生统计年报/鉴死亡资料的完整性评价

目的对1987～2003年全国卫生统计年报/鉴数据资料的完整性进行客观评价。方法本研究利用1987～2003年卫生统计年报/鉴中的相关数据、2000年第五次人口普查获得的各类地区人口构成和已有文献的相关信息、结合Coale-Demeny模型寿命表,利用Courbage-Fargues法对年报/鉴数据的完整性进行较为客观的评价。结果全国总体而言,年报/鉴的完整性逐年变动不大;5岁及以上年龄组人群完整性较好,男性约为94.92%,女性约为85.03%;不足1岁人群的完整性相对较低,男性约为54.71%,女性约为61.47%;大城市和一类农村数据资料的完整性相对较好。结论《卫生统计年报/鉴》的漏报现象主要反映在低年龄组人群中,不足1岁组尤为明显;不同地区资料的完整性不同,中小城市、二类和三类地区的死因监测有待于加强。     

Societies in transition: mortality patterns in Pacific Island populations

The 22 Pacific Island countries and territories are in a state of demographic and epidemiological transition. Mortality data for the period around 1980 were collected from various sources and are presented in this comparative study. Because death registration in many Pacific countries is deficient some data have been adjusted for underenumeration; and some mortality estimates have been calculated by indirect means, using data from censuses or surveys. Cause of death information is affected by diagnostic inaccuracy and often tabulated in broad categories only; in some Pacific countries cause of death data are only available on hospital deaths. The less developed Melanesian malarious countries and the less developed dispersed atoll nations manifest higher mortality, and higher proportional mortality from infectious disease compared with other states. The more developed US-associated states, two New Zealand-associated states, and New Caledonian Europeans all have reasonably low mortality, and relatively high proportional mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD). Females have longer life expectancy at birth than males in all countries except Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands. The phosphate-rich island of Nauru presents an atypical picture with considerable adult male mortality from diseases associated with modernization.     

Needs in vital and health statistics in underdeveloped countries

The author discusses the types of health and vital statistics that would be of the greatest practical value to countries with only slightly developed public-health and vital registration systems and the ways by which these statistics may be obtained.While a regular census is necessary for proper mortality and natality statistics, population estimates may be successfully used until a census can be taken. Natality statistics should include live-births, stillbirths, legitimacy, and age of mother. For morbidity measurement, four sources of information or types of inquiry can be used before complete registration systems are available: sickness surveys by home visits of families; records of notifiable communicable diseases; medical records of sickness in schools; and records of health welfare centres and health visitors, when these exist. The use of infant mortality figures in underdeveloped countries is subject to considerable error, and great effort will be needed to get every living child in the birth register. A useful local index of health is the recording in selected areas of deaths during the first three years of life. Death-rates at higher ages can only be assessed where death registration is fairly complete.It is suggested that reliable information on population changes, child mortality and sickness, and the incidence of disease can be obtained by a continuous study programme in carefully selected model survey and registration districts. Apart from the immediate results from such a programme, it would prepare the ground for the subsequent establishment of a full vital registration system.