Prognostic value of GRACE and CHA2DS2-VASc score among patients with atrial fibrillation undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention

AimsThe GRACE and CHA2DS2-VASc risk score are developed for risk stratification in patients with acute coronary syndrome and AF, respectively. We aimed to assess the predictive performance of the GRACE score and CHA2DS2-VASc score among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).MethodsConsecutive patients with a diagnosis of AF admitted to our hospital for PCI between January 2016 and December 2018 were included and followed up for at least 1 year. The primary endpoint was a composite of major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) including all-cause mortality, repeat revascularization, myocardial infarction, or ischaemic stroke.ResultsA total of 1452 patients were identified. Cox regression demonstrated that the GRACE (HR 1.014, 95% CI 1.008–1.020, p < 0.001) but not the CHA2DS2-VASc score was associated with the risk of MACEs. Both GRACE and CHA2DS2-VASc scores were predictive of all-cause mortality with HR of 1.028 (95% CI 1.020–1.037, p < 0.001) and 1.334 (95% CI 1.107–1.632, p = 0.003). Receiver operating characteristic analyses showed both scores had similar discrimination capacity for all-cause mortality (C-statistic: 0.708 for GRACE vs. 0.661 for CHA2DS2-VASc, p = 0.299). High GRACE score was also significantly associated with increased risk of ischaemic stroke (HR 1.018, 95% CI 1.005–1.031, p = 0.006) and major bleeding (HR 1.012, 95% CI 1.001–1.024, p = 0.039), whereas high CHA2DS2-VASc score was not.ConclusionsHigh GRACE score but not CHA2DS2-VASc score were both associated with an increased risk of MACEs after PCI in patients with AF. The GRACE and CHA2DS2-VASc scores have similar predictive performance for predicting all-cause mortality.

Key messages:

• In patients with AF undergoing PCI, increasing GRACE but not CHA2DS2-VASc scores was independently associated high risk of MACEs.
• The GRACE score could also help identify patients at higher risk of stroke and major bleeding.
• Both GRACE and CHA2DS2-VASc scores showed good ability in the prediction of all-cause mortality.

     

Benefit profile of recombinant human soluble thrombomodulin in sepsis-induced disseminated intravascular coagulation: a multicenter propensity score analysis

IntroductionThe safety and efficacy of recombinant human soluble thrombomodulin (rhTM) have been demonstrated, with promising evidence suggestive of efficacy for patients with severe sepsis involving coagulopathy in a phase IIb randomized controlled trial. However, the benefit profiles of rhTM have not been elucidated. The purpose of this study was to explore whether patients with greater disease severity, determined according to the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores, would experience treatment benefit from rhTM administration.MethodsThis was a post hoc, subgroup analysis of a multicenter retrospective cohort study conducted in three Japanese tertiary referral hospitals. Patients with sepsis-induced disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) who required ventilator management were included. We stratified patients into several strata according to disease severity, determined by APACHE II and SOFA scores, using classification and regression trees for survival data. Intervention effects, expressed as hazard ratios (HR), were analyzed using Cox regression analysis adjusted for a propensity model to detect subgroup heterogeneity of the effects of rhTM on in-hospital mortality.ResultsParticipants were 162 patients with sepsis-induced DIC; 68 of these patients received rhTM and 94 did not. After adjusting for imbalances, rhTM administration was significantly associated with reduced mortality in high-risk patients (APACHE II: 24 to 29; HR: 0.281; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.093 to 0.850; P = 0.025). A similar nonsignificant tendency was observed in the very high-risk subset (APACHE II: ≥30; HR: 0.529; 95% CI: 0.202 to 1.387; P = 0.195) but was not evident in the moderate-risk subset of patients (APACHE II: <24; HR: 0.814; 95% CI: 0.351 to 1.884; P = 0.630). A similar tendency was observed in analysis of SOFA scores (moderate-risk subset (SOFA: <11), P = 0.368; high-risk subset (SOFA: ≥11), P = 0.042).ConclusionsSurvival benefit was observed with rhTM treatment in sepsis-induced DIC and high risk of death according to baseline APACHE II and SOFA scores.     

The prognostic value of the lactate/albumin ratio for predicting mortality in septic patients presenting to the emergency department: a prospective study

ObjectivesLactate/albumin (L/A) ratio is a biomarker in sepsis that has been shown to outperform lactate. This prospective study aims to validate the superior prognostic value of the L/A ratio to lactate in sepsis and septic shock.MethodsProspective cohort conducted from September 2018 till February 2021 on adult patients presenting to the Emergency Department (ED) at a tertiary care centre with sepsis or septic shock. The primary outcome was the prognostic value of the L/A ratio compared to lactate with regards to mortality.ResultsA total of 939 septic patients were included throughout the study period. A total of 236 patients developed septic shock. The AUC value of the L/A ratio in septic patients was 0.65 (95% CI 0.61–0.70) and was higher than that of lactate alone 0.60 (95% CI 0.55–0.64) with a p < .0001. The optimal L/A ratio cut-off threshold that separated survivors from non-survivors was found to be 0.115 for all septic patients. The AUC of the L/A ratio was significantly higher for patients with a lactate ≥2 mmol/L: 0.69 (95% CI 0.64–0.74) versus 0.60 (95% CI 0.54–0.66) with a p < .0001 as well as for patients with an albumin level less than 30 g/L (AUC = 0.69 95% CI= 0.62–0.75 vs AUC= 0.66 95% CI= 0.59–0.73, p = .04). Among septic shock patients there was no statically significant difference in the AUC value of the L/A ratio compared to lactate (0.53 95% CI 0.45–0.61 vs 0.50 95% CI 0.43–0.58 respectively with a p-value = .11).ConclusionsThe L/A ratio is a better predictor of in-patient mortality than lactate in sepsis patients. This superiority was not found in the septic shock subgroup. Our results encourage the use of the ratio early in the ED as a superior prognostic tool in sepsis patients.

Key messages

1. We aimed to assess the prognostic usefulness of the Lactate/Albumin ratio compared to lactate alone in septic and septic shock patients.
2. The L/A ratio proved to be a better predictor of in-patient mortality than lactate alone in sepsis patients. This pattern also applies across various subgroups in our study (malignancy, diabetics, age above 65, lactate level less than 2 mmol/L, albumin less than 30 g/L). Our results favour the use of the L/A ratio over lactate alone in patients with sepsis and the previously mentioned subgroups.
3. Our results do not favour the use of the ratio instead of lactate in septic shock patients as there was no statistically significant difference between the AUCs of the ratio and lactate alone.

     

Prediction of severity and outcomes of colon ischaemia using a novel prognostic model: a clinical multicenter study

ObjectiveTo identify risk factors of disease severity and between mild and severe colon ischaemia (CI) patients and to improve clinical outcomes, this study aimed to explore a novel scoring model.MethodsRetrospective analyses of hospital records between January 2009 and December 2019 were included. Clinical manifestations, mortality, Oakland score, laboratory tests, colonoscopy, and histopathology were collected. Risk factors of severe CI were determined by univariate and multivariate logistic regression and used for the predicting model.ResultsA total of 203 patients with CI were included. Serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin ratio (CAR) were much higher in the severe CI group compared with that of the mild CI group (3.33 ± 1.78 versus 0.68 ± 0.97, p < .001). The Oakland score was much higher in the severe CI group (12.00 ± 3.02 versus 8.77 ± 1.63, p < .001). The histopathological finding of fibrin thrombi was an independent risk factor that predicted poor outcomes (20.00% versus. 1.09%, p < .001). Patients present with CAR ≥3.33, Oakland score ≥12, and histopathological fibrin thrombi were independent risk factors. In addition, the final scoring model was 0.042 × Oakland score + 1.040 × CAR + 3.412 × fibrin thrombi, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.960 (95% confidence interval:0.930–0.990), and the sensitivity and specificity of the novel scoring model were 95% and 92%, respectively.ConclusionsThe novel prognostic model was established to predict CI severity and clinical outcomes efficiently.

Key messages

• In this article, we discuss the scoring model for clinical outcomes of colon ischaemia patients.
• In our study, the sensitivity and specificity of a novel scoring model are very high.
• Thus, laboratory tests (CRP albumin ratio), Oakland score, and histopathological findings (fibrin thrombi) can be assessed efficiently for colon ischaemia outcomes.

     

Plasma albumin and calcium concentrations,and long-term mortality in primary health care patients in Sweden

Objective Low plasma (p)-albumin and p-calcium concentrations are associated with increased mortality in hospitalised patients. There are few studies addressing this in primary care. Low p-calcium has been associated with mortality, but it is not known whether this applies to p-albumin. Could p-albumin and p-calcium be used as markers of an increased risk of mortality?Purpose To study p-albumin and p-calcium at baseline and their association with mortality after 10–14 years.Design Prospective cohort study using data from a large primary health care area and the National Swedish Cause of Death Register.Setting Primary health care in Skaraborg, Sweden.Subjects 43,052 patients (39.1% men), ≥18 years, 60.7 ± 18.4 years with p-albumin and p-calcium concentrations registered in 2001–2005.Main outcome measures P-albumin and p-calcium concentrations at baseline and their association with mortality after a mean follow-up period of 10.3 ± 4.0 years.Results Low p-albumin was associated with total mortality compared with normal p-albumin, greatest at lower ages (18–47 years). The hazard ratios for women and men were 3.12 (95% CI 1.27–7.70) and 4.09 (95% CI 1.50–11.14), respectively. The increased mortality was seen in both cardiovascular and malignant diseases in both women and men. In contrast, low p-calcium was not associated with increased mortality, 1.00 (95% CI 0.96–1.05). Elevated p-calcium was associated with increased mortality, 1.17 (95% CI 1.13–1.22).Conclusions Low p-albumin could be a marker of an increased risk of mortality, especially in patients of younger ages. This finding should prompt diagnostic measures in order to identify underlying causes.

KEY POINTS

• Low p-albumin and calcium concentrations have been associated with increased mortality in hospitalised patients, but this is unexplored in primary care patients.
• A low p-albumin concentration at baseline was a risk marker for mortality; highest in the younger age groups.
• Increased mortality in both cardiovascular and malignant diseases was seen in both men and women with low compared with normal p-albumin concentrations.
• Elevated but not low p-calcium concentrations were associated with increased mortality after 10–14 years of follow-up.

     

Evaluating red blood cell distribution width from community blood tests as a predictor of hospitalization and mortality in adults with SARS-CoV-2: a cohort study

BackgroundRed blood cell distribution width (RDW) has been assessed during COVID-19 patient hospitalization, however, further research should be done to evaluate RDW from routine community blood tests, before infection, as a risk factor for COVID-19 related hospitalization and mortality.Patients and methodsRDW was measured as a predictor along with age, sex, chronic illnesses, and BMI in logistic regressions to predict hospitalization and mortality. Hospitalization and mortality odds ratios (ORs) were estimated with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RDW was evaluated separately as continuous and discrete (High RDW ≥ 14.5) variables.ResultsFour thousand one hundred and sixty-eight patients were included in this study, where 824 patients (19.8%) had a high RDW value ≥14.5% (High RDW: 64.7% were female, mean age 58 years [±22] vs. Normal RDW: 60.2% female, mean age 46 years [±19]). Eight hundred and twenty-nine patients had a hospitalization, where the median time between positive PCR and hospital entry was 5 [IQR 1–18] days. Models were analyzed with RDW (continuous) and adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, and BMI suggested an OR of 1.242 [95% CI = 1.187–2.688] for hospitalization and an OR of 2.911 [95% CI = 1.928–4.395] for mortality (p < .001). RDW (discrete) with the same adjustments presented an OR of 2.232 [95% CI = 1.853–1.300] for hospitalization and an OR of 1.263 [95% CI = 1.166–1.368] for mortality (p < .001).ConclusionsHigh RDW values obtained from community blood tests are associated with greater odds of hospitalization and mortality for patients with COVID-19.

KEY MESSAGES

• RDW measures before SARS-CoV-2 infection is a predictive factor for hospitalization and mortality.
• RDW threshold of 14.5% provides high sensitivity and specificity for COVID-19 related mortality, comparatively to other blood tests.
• Patient records should be accessed by clinicians for prior RDW results, if available, followed by further monitoring.

     

Association between trends in clinical variables and outcome in intensive care patients with faecal peritonitis: analysis of the GenOSept cohort

IntroductionPatients admitted to intensive care following surgery for faecal peritonitis present particular challenges in terms of clinical management and risk assessment. Collaborating surgical and intensive care teams need shared perspectives on prognosis. We aimed to determine the relationship between dynamic assessment of trends in selected variables and outcomes.MethodsWe analysed trends in physiological and laboratory variables during the first week of intensive care unit (ICU) stay in 977 patients at 102 centres across 16 European countries. The primary outcome was 6-month mortality. Secondary endpoints were ICU, hospital and 28-day mortality. For each trend, Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression analyses, adjusted for age and sex, were performed for each endpoint.ResultsTrends over the first 7 days of the ICU stay independently associated with 6-month mortality were worsening thrombocytopaenia (mortality: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.02; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.01 to 1.03; P <0.001) and renal function (total daily urine output: HR =1.02; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.03; P <0.001; Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) renal subscore: HR = 0.87; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99; P = 0.047), maximum bilirubin level (HR = 0.99; 95% CI, 0.99 to 0.99; P = 0.02) and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) SOFA subscore (HR = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.98; P = 0.028). Changes in renal function (total daily urine output and renal component of the SOFA score), GCS component of the SOFA score, total SOFA score and worsening thrombocytopaenia were also independently associated with secondary outcomes (ICU, hospital and 28-day mortality). We detected the same pattern when we analysed trends on days 2, 3 and 5. Dynamic trends in all other measured laboratory and physiological variables, and in radiological findings, changes inrespiratory support, renal replacement therapy and inotrope and/or vasopressor requirements failed to be retained as independently associated with outcome in multivariate analysis.ConclusionsOnly deterioration in renal function, thrombocytopaenia and SOFA score over the first 2, 3, 5 and 7 days of the ICU stay were consistently associated with mortality at all endpoints. These findings may help to inform clinical decision making in patients with this common cause of critical illness.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13054-015-0931-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Does C-reactive protein predict time to recovery and benefit from oseltamivir treatment in primary care patients with influenza-like illness? A randomized controlled trial secondary analysis

ObjectiveRecovery time and treatment effect of oseltamivir in influenza-like illness (ILI) differs between patient groups. A point-of-care test to better predict ILI duration and identify patients who are most likely to benefit from oseltamivir treatment would aid prescribing decisions in primary care. This study aimed to investigate whether a C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration of ≥30 mg/L can predict (1) ILI disease duration, and (2) which patients are most likely to benefit from oseltamivir treatment.DesignSecondary analysis of randomized controlled trial data.SettingPrimary care in Lithuania, Sweden and Norway during three consecutive influenza seasons 2016–2018.SubjectsA total of 277 ILI patients aged one year or older and symptom duration of ≤72 h.Main outcome measuresCapillary blood CRP concentration at baseline, and ILI recovery time defined as having ‘returned to usual daily activity’ with residual symptoms minimally interfering.ResultsAt baseline, 20% (55/277) had CRP concentrations ≥30mg/L (range 0–210). CRP concentration ≥30 mg/L was not associated with recovery time (adjusted hazards ratio (HR) 0.80: 95% CI 0.50–1.3; p = 0.33). Interaction analysis of CRP concentration ≥30 mg/L and oseltamivir treatment did not identify which patients benefit more from oseltamivir treatment (adjusted HR 0.69: 95% CI 0.37–1.3; p = 0.23).ConclusionThere was no association between CRP concentration of ≥30 mg/L and recovery time from ILI. Furthermore, CRP could not predict which ILI patients benefit more from oseltamivir treatment. Hence, we do not recommend CRP testing for predicting ILI recovery time or identifying patients who will receive particular benefit from oseltamivir treatment.

Key Points

• Predicting disease course of influenza-like illness (ILI), and identifying which patients benefit from oseltamivir treatment is a challenge for physicians.
• • There was no association between CRP concentration at baseline and recovery time in patients consulting with ILI in primary care.
• • There was no association between CRP concentration at baseline and benefit from oseltamivir treatment.
• • We, therefore, do not recommend CRP testing for predicting recovery time or in decision-making concerning oseltamivir prescribing in ILI patients.

     

Association between the liver fat score (LFS) and cardiovascular diseases in the national health and nutrition examination survey 1999–2016

BackgroundThe liver fat score (LFS) has been proposed to be a simple non-invasive marker of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), which is highly prevalent in the general population. We tested its association with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and prognosis.Methods17,244 adult participants from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999–2016 were included. LFS is calculated from variables including serum aspartate transaminase/alanine transaminase (AST/ALT) ratio, fasting serum aspartate transaminase (AST) level, fasting serum insulin level, presence of metabolic syndrome and diabetes mellitus. In cross-sectional analysis, logistic regression was used to examine the association of the LFS with coronary heart disease (CHD), myocardial infarction (MI), congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke and angina pectoris. Mortality during follow-up was analysed using Cox proportional hazard regression.ResultsLFS was associated with CHD (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 1.09 per standard deviation [SD], 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.03–1.15) (p = .003), CHF (1.11, 1.04–1.18) (p = .003) and angina pectoris (1.08, 1.02–1.13) (p = .005). LFS was not associated with MI or stroke, but was associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality with hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.10 (95% CI: 1.07–1.13) (p < .001) and 1.12 (95% CI: 1.06–1.17) (p < .001), respectively.ConclusionsNAFLD is usually asymptomatic, but this large study of a large general population shows that LFS is associated with CHD, CHF, angina pectoris, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Determining the LFS is worthwhile, as it identifies people with NAFLD, who may also be at increased cardiovascular risk.

Key Messages

• Liver fat score (LFS), a non-invasive marker of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is associated with coronary heart disease (CHD), congestive heart failure (CHF) and angina.
• LFS is also associated with increased cardiovascular and all-cause mortality.
• Determining the LFS is worthwhile as it identifies people with NAFLD as well as increased cardiovascular risk.

     

Association Between Red Cell Distribution Width and Hospital Mortality in Patients with Sepsis

ObjectiveSepsis is the leading cause of death in patients admitted to adult intensive care units (ICUs). We aimed to determine the predictive value of red blood cell distribution width (RDW) in patients with sepsis in a large cohort.MethodsThis retrospective observational study used data from the eICU Collaborative Research Database. The prognostic value of RDW was investigated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, multiple logistic regression model, integrated discriminatory index (IDI), and net reclassification index (NRI).ResultsIn total, 9743 patients were included. The area under the ROC curve of the RDW for predicting hospital mortality was 0.631 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.616–0.645). Based on the multiple logistic regression model, an RDW of ≥14.5% was correlated with hospital mortality, regardless of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV) scores (odds ratio [OR]: 1.838, 95% CI: 1.598–2.119). Using SOFA and APACHE IV scores as reference, the IDI and continuous NRI of RDW for hospital mortality was about 0.3 and 0.014, respectively.ConclusionsThe RDW may be useful in predicting hospital mortality in patients with sepsis, offering extra prognostic value beyond SOFA and APACHE IV scores.     

White-coat hypertension detected during opportunistic blood pressure screening in a dental healthcare setting

ObjectiveTo study white-coat hypertension (WCHT, blood pressure ≥140/90 mmHg in a clinic and normal blood pressure <135/85 mmHg at home), with blood pressure screening of a healthy population during their dental healthcare visit and the associated risk factors.DesignA multicentre observational study.SettingA healthy general population at four dental clinics in a region in southern Sweden.Subjects2025 individuals aged 40–75 years were screened for high blood pressure at their annual regular check-up dental visit.Main outcome measuresFrequencies of normal and elevated blood pressure (BP) in dental clinics, with home BP as a reference. According to BP results, the population was divided into three groups: normotension (NT), WCHT and suspected hypertension (HT). Background and life style factors were measured: sex, age, family history of hypertension, body mass index (BMI kg/m²), education level, tobacco use, and physical activity level.ResultsThe overall prevalence of WCHT in the study was 17.7%, and the prevalence was 57.2% among those with clinically high blood pressure. Compared with NT, WCHT was associated with male sex (OR 1.56, CI 1.18–2.06), older age group (OR 2.33, CI 1.66–3.26), family history of hypertension (OR 1.61, CI 1.24–2.10), high BMI kg/m² (OR 2.36, CI 1.80–3.10), daily snuff use (OR 1.74, CI 1.19–2.53). In comparison with WCHT, HT was associated with male sex (OR 2.16, CI 1.44–3.25), older age group (OR 2.85, CI 1.75–4.65), daily smoking (OR 2.10, CI 1.14–3.85), less daily snuff use (OR 0.59, CI 0.34–0.99).ConclusionsThe prevalence of WCHT in a healthy population was 17.7%. Regarding cardiovascular risk factors, WCHT seems to be in the middle of NT and HT. Individuals with WCHT can be identified and given lifestyle advice in connection with a dental check-up, but follow-up and assessment of their cardiovascular risk should take place in primary care.

Key points

• Screening in dental practice can detect white-coat hypertension (WCHT) (17.7%) and suspected hypertension (HT) (12.4%).
• Individuals with WCHT have more cardiovascular risk factors than normotensive individuals.
• Individuals with WCHT could be given lifestyle advice in dental clinics according to current guidelines.

     

Predicting mortality in non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis patients using distance-saturation product

BackgroundThe bronchiectasis severity index (BSI) and FACED score are currently used in predicting outcomes of non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis (NCFB). Distance-saturation product (DSP), the product of distance walked, and lowest oxygen saturation during the 6-min walk test showed strong predictive power of mortality in non-CF bronchiectasis patients. This study aimed to compare the efficacy of these scores and DSP in predicting mortality.Methods and PatientsOur retrospective study included NCFB patients from January 2004 to December 2017. We recorded the basic data, pulmonary function, radiologic studies, sputum culture results, acute exacerbations (AE), emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalization, and mortality.ResultsA total 130 NCFB patients were analysed. The mean BSI score, FACED score, and DSP were 8.8 ± 4.9, 3.4 ± 1.7, and 413.1 ± 101.5 m%, respectively. BSI and FACED scores had comparable predictive power for AE (p=.011; p=.010, respectively). The BSI score demonstrated a significant correlation with ED visits (p=.0003). There were 12 deaths. Patients were stratified using a DSP cut-off value of 345 m% according to the best area under receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) value in mortality. DSP was not correlated with AE and ED visits. BSI, FACED scores, and DSP demonstrated statistically significant correlations with hospitalization (p<.0001; p<.0001; p=.0007, respectively). The AUC for overall mortality was similar for BSI, FACED score, and DSP (0.80 versus 0.85, p=.491; 0.85 versus 0.83, p=.831).ConclusionDSP had comparable predictive power for mortality as the well-validated BSI and FACED scores and is relatively easy to use in clinical practice.

KEY MESSAGE

• Distance-saturation product (DSP) comprised with the product of distance walked, and lowest oxygen saturation during the 6-min walk test, which is common used in clinical practice.
• DSP demonstrated strong and comparable predictive power of mortality as the well-validated BSI and FACED scores in non-CF bronchiectasis patients.

     

Performance of COPD population screener questionnaire in COPD screening: a validation study and meta-analysis

This study aimed to validate the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) Population Screener (COPD-PS) questionnaire as a screening tool in a cohort of Chinese subjects who underwent a health examination, and to summarise its overall performance through a meta-analysis. We enrolled 997 subjects aged ≥40 years who underwent a health examination, both lung function and COPD-PS data were collected. The screening performance of COPD-PS was evaluated with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, using the area under the curve (AUC) to assess the screening accuracy. A standard diagnostic meta-analysis was used to summarise the screening performance of COPD-PS for COPD. Of the 997 subjects, 157 were identified as having COPD. The COPD-PS score was significantly higher in COPD patients than controls (5.03 ± 5.11 vs. 2.72 ± 1.80, p < .001). At a cut-off of 4, the sensitivity and specificity of COPD-PS for identifying COPD were 74.52 and 70.24%, respectively, with an AUC of 0.79. Eight studies (including this study) were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled estimates for COPD-PS were as follows: sensitivity of 0.66 (95% CI: 0.47–0.63), specificity of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.84–0.89), positive likelihood ratio of 3.00 (95% CI: 1.65–5.47), negative likelihood ratio of 0.43 (95% CI: 0.35–0.52) and diagnostic odds ratio of 7.24 (95% CI: 3.91–13.40). The AUC of the summary ROC curve was 0.78. COPD-PS appears to be a useful tool for screening individuals with a high risk of COPD and guiding the selection of individuals for subsequent spirometry examination.

KEY MESSAGES

• COPD-PS is a simple and useful method to screen COPD.
• The combination of COPD-PS with other tools may improve the screen performance.

     

Risk stratification and prognostic performance of the predisposition,infection, response,and organ dysfunction (PIRO) scoring system in septic patients in the emergency department: a cohort study

Introduction

The predisposition, infection, response and organ dysfunction (PIRO) staging system was designed as a stratification tool to deal with the inherent heterogeneity of septic patients. The present study was conducted to assess the performance of PIRO in predicting multiple organ dysfunction (MOD), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and 28-day mortality in septic patients in the emergency department (ED), and to compare this scoring system with the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) scores.

Methods

Consecutive septic patients (n = 680) admitted to the ED of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital were enrolled. PIRO, MEDS, and APACHE II scores were calculated for each patient on ED arrival. Organ function was reassessed within 3 days of enrollment. All patients were followed up for 28 days. Outcome criteria were the development of MOD within 3 days, ICU admission or death within 28 days after enrollment. The predictive ability of the four components of PIRO was analyzed separately. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and logistic regression analysis were used to assess the prognostic and risk stratification value of the scoring systems.

Results

Organ dysfunction independently predicted ICU admission, MOD, and 28-day mortality, with areas under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.888, 0.851, and 0.816, respectively. The predictive value of predisposition, infection, and response was weaker than that of organ dysfunction. A negative correlation was found between the response component and MOD, as well as mortality. PIRO, MEDS, and APACHE II scores significantly differed between patients who did and did not meet the outcome criteria (P < 0.001). PIRO and APACHE II independently predicted ICU admission and MOD, but MEDS did not. All three systems were independent predictors of 28-day mortality with similar AUC values. The AUC of PIRO was 0.889 for ICU admission, 0.817 for MOD, and 0.744 for 28-day mortality. The AUCs of PIRO were significantly greater than those of APACHE II and MEDS (P < 0.05) in predicting ICU admission and MOD.

Conclusions

The study indicates that PIRO is helpful for risk stratification and prognostic determinations in septic patients in the ED.     

A novel risk score to predict 1-year functional outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage and comparison with existing scores

Introduction

Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is one of leading causes of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Several predictive models have been developed for ICH; however, none of them have been consistently used in routine clinical practice or clinical research. In the study, we aimed to develop and validate a risk score for predicting 1-year functional outcome after ICH (ICH Functional Outcome Score, ICH-FOS). Furthermore, we compared discrimination of the ICH-FOS and 8 existing ICH scores with regard to 30-day, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year functional outcome and mortality after ICH.

Methods

The ICH-FOS was developed based on the China National Stroke Registry, in which eligible patients were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and validation (40%) cohorts. Poor functional outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale score (mRS) ≥3 at 1 year after ICH. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to determine independent predictors, and β-coefficients were used to generate scoring system of the ICH-FOS. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to assess model discrimination and calibration.

Results

The overall 1-year poor functional outcome (mRS ≥ 3) was 46.7% and 44.9% in the derivation (n = 1,953) and validation (n = 1,302) cohorts, respectively. A 16-point ICH-FOS was developed from the set of independent predictors of 1-year poor functional outcome after ICH including age (P < 0.001), admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (P < 0.001), Glasgow Coma Scale score (P < 0.001), blood glucose (P = 0.002), ICH location (P < 0.001), hematoma volume (P < 0.001), and intraventricular extension (P < 0.001). The ICH-FOS showed good discrimination (AUROC) in the derivation (0.836, 95% CI: 0.819-0.854) and validation (0.830, 95% CI: 0.808-0.852) cohorts. The ICH-FOS was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow test) in the derivation (P = 0.42) and validation (P = 0.39) cohort. When compared to 8 prior ICH scores, the ICH-FOS showed significantly better discrimination with regard to 1-year functional outcome and mortality after ICH (all P < 0.0001). Meanwhile, the ICH-FOS also demonstrated either comparable or significantly better discrimination for poor functional outcome and mortality at 30-day, 3-month, and 6-month after ICH.

Conclusion

The ICH-FOS is a valid clinical grading scale for 1-year functional outcome after ICH. Further validation of the ICH-FOS in different populations is needed.     

Systematic review and meta-analysis of risk scores in prediction for the clinical outcomes in patients with acute variceal bleeding

BackgroundAcute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a life-threatening condition that needs risk stratification to guide clinical treatment. Which risk system could reflect the prognosis more accurately remains controversial. We aimed to conduct a meta-analysis of the predictive value of GBS, AIMS65, Rockall (clinical Rockall score and full Rockall score), CTP and MELD.MethodPubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane library, WANGFANG and CNKI were searched. Twenty-eight articles were included in the study. The Meta-DiSc software and MedCalc software were used to pool the predictive accuracy.ResultsConcerning in-hospital mortality, CTP, AIMS65, MELD, Full-Rockall and GBS had a pooled AUC of 0.824, 0.793, 0.788, 0.75 and 0.683, respectively. CTP had the highest sensitivity of 0.910 (95% CI: 0.864–0.944) with a specificity of 0.666 (95% CI: 0.635–0.696). AIMS65 had the highest specificity of 0.774 (95% CI: 0.749–0.798) with a sensitivity of 0.679 (95% CI: 0.617–0.736). For follow-up mortality, MELD, AIMS65, CTP, Clinical Rockall, Full-Rockall and GBS showed a pooled AUC of 0.798, 0.77, 0.746, 0.704, 0.678 and 0.618, respectively. CTP had the highest specificity (0.806, 95% CI: 0.763–0.843) with a sensitivity of 0.722 (95% CI: 0.628–0.804). GBS had the highest sensitivity 0.800 (95% CI: 0.696–0.881) with a specificity of 0.412 (95% CI: 0.368–0.457). As for rebleeding, no score performed particularly well.ConclusionsNo risk scores were ideally identified by our systematic review. CTP was superior to other risk scores in identifying AVB patients at high risk of death in hospital and patients at low risk within follow-up. Guidelines have recommended the use of GBS to risk stratification of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. However, if the cause of upper gastrointestinal bleeding is suspected oesophageal and gastric varices, extra care should be taken. Because in this meta-analysis, the ability of GBS was limited.

Key message

• CTP was superior in identifying AVB patients at high risk of death in hospital and low risk within follow-up.
• GBS, though recommended by the Guidelines, should be cautiously used when assessing AVB patients.

     

Predicting six-month mortality of patients with traumatic brain injury: usefulness of common intensive care severity scores

Introduction

The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of the APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II), SAPS II (Simplified Acute Physiology Score II) and SOFA (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment) scores compared to simpler models based on age and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) in predicting long-term outcome of patients with moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) treated in the intensive care unit (ICU).

Methods

A national ICU database was screened for eligible TBI patients (age over 15 years, GCS 3–13) admitted in 2003–2012. Logistic regression was used for customization of APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA score-based models for six-month mortality prediction. These models were compared to an adjusted SOFA-based model (including age) and a reference model (age and GCS). Internal validation was performed by a randomized split-sample technique. Prognostic performance was determined by assessing discrimination, calibration and precision.

Results

In total, 1,625 patients were included. The overall six-month mortality was 33%. The APACHE II and SAPS II-based models showed good discrimination (area under the curve (AUC) 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75 to 0.82; and 0.80, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.83, respectively), calibration (P > 0.05) and precision (Brier score 0.166 to 0.167). The SOFA-based model showed poor discrimination (AUC 0.68, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.72) and precision (Brier score 0.201) but good calibration (P > 0.05). The AUC of the SOFA-based model was significantly improved after the insertion of age and GCS (∆AUC +0.11, P < 0.001). The performance of the reference model was comparable to the APACHE II and SAPS II in terms of discrimination (AUC 0.77; compared to APACHE II, ΔAUC −0.02, P = 0.425; compared to SAPS II, ΔAUC −0.03, P = 0.218), calibration (P > 0.05) and precision (Brier score 0.181).

Conclusions

A simple prognostic model, based only on age and GCS, displayed a fairly good prognostic performance in predicting six-month mortality of ICU-treated patients with TBI. The use of the more complex scoring systems APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA added little to the prognostic performance.     

Long-term outcomes after coronary artery bypass surgery in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

ObjectiveTo investigate the long-term outcomes of coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (CABG) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA).MethodsPatients with RA (n = 378) were retrospectively compared to patients without RA (n = 7560), all treated with CABG in a multicentre, population-based cohort register study in Finland. The outcomes were studied with propensity score-matching adjustment for baseline features. The median follow-up was 9.7 years.ResultsDiagnosis of RA was associated with an increased risk of mortality after CABG compared to patients without RA (HR 1.50; CI 1.28–1.77; p < .0001). In addition, patients with RA were in higher risk of myocardial infarction during the follow-up period (HR 1.61; CI 1.28–2.04; p < .0001). Cumulative rate of repeated revascularization after CABG was 14.4% in RA patients and 12.0% in control patients (p = .060). Duration of RA before CABG (p = .011) and preoperative corticosteroid usage in RA (p = .041) were independently associated with higher mortality after CABG. There were no differences between the study groups in 30-d mortality or in the post-operative usage of cardiovascular medications.ConclusionsRA is independently associated with worse prognosis in coronary artery disease treated with CABG. Preoperative corticosteroid use and longer RA disease duration are additional risk factors for mortality.

Key messages

• Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have impaired long-term outcomes after coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG).
• Glucocorticoid use before CABG and duration of RA are associated with higher mortality.
• Special attention should be paid in secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease in RA patients after CABG.

     

A simple prognostic index based on admission vital signs data among patients with sepsis in a resource-limited setting

IntroductionIn sub-Saharan Africa, vital signs are a feasible option for monitoring critically ill patients. We assessed how admission vital signs data predict in-hospital mortality among patients with sepsis. In particular, we assessed whether vital signs data can be incorporated into a prognostic index with reduced segmentation in the values of included variables.MethodsSubjects were patients with sepsis hospitalized in Uganda, who participated in two cohort studies. Using restricted cubic splines of admission vital signs data, we predicted probability of in-hospital death in the development cohort and used this information to construct a simple prognostic index. We assessed the performance of the index in a validation cohort and compared its performance to that of the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS).ResultsWe included 317 patients (167 in the development cohort and 150 in the validation cohort). Based on how vital signs predicted mortality, we created a prognostic index giving a score of 1 for: respiratory rates ≥30 cycles/minute; pulse rates ≥100 beats/minute; mean arterial pressures ≥110/<70 mmHg; temperatures ≥38.6/<35.6°C; and presence of altered mental state defined as Glasgow coma score ≤14; 0 for all other values. The proposed index (maximum score = 5) predicted mortality comparably to MEWS. Patients scoring ≥3 on the index were 3.4-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6 to 7.3, P = 0.001) and 2.3-fold (95% CI 1.1 to 4.7, P = 0.031) as likely to die in hospital as those scoring 0 to 2 in the development and validation cohorts respectively; those scoring ≥5 on MEWS were 2.5-fold (95% CI 1.2 to 5.3, P = 0.017) and 1.8-fold (95% CI 0.74 to 4.2, P = 0.204) as likely to die as those scoring 0 to 4 in the development and validation cohorts respectively.ConclusionAmong patients with sepsis, a prognostic index incorporating admission vital signs data with reduced segmentation in the values of included variables adequately predicted mortality. Such an index may be more easily implemented when triaging acutely-ill patients. Future studies using a similar approach may develop indexes that can be used to monitor treatment among acutely-ill patients, especially in resource-limited settings.