Genetic relationship between poultry and wild bird viruses during the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N6 epidemic in the Netherlands, 2017–2018

In the Netherlands, three commercial poultry farms and two hobby holdings were infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N6 virus in the winter of 2017–2018. This H5N6 virus is a reassortant of HPAI H5N8 clade 2.3.4.4 group B viruses detected in Eurasia in 2016. H5N6 viruses were also detected in several dead wild birds during the winter. However, wild bird mortality was limited compared to the caused by the H5N8 group B virus in 2016–2017. H5N6 virus was not detected in wild birds after March, but in late summer infected wild birds were found again. In this study, the complete genome sequences of poultry and wild bird viruses were determined to study their genetic relationship. Genetic analysis showed that the outbreaks in poultry were not the result of farm‐to‐farm transmissions, but rather resulted from separate introductions from wild birds. Wild birds infected with viruses related to the first outbreak in poultry were found at short distances from the farm, within a short time frame. However, no wild bird viruses related to outbreaks 2 and 3 were detected. The H5N6 virus isolated in summer shares a common ancestor with the virus detected in outbreak 1. This suggests long‐term circulation of H5N6 virus in the local wild bird population. In addition, the pathogenicity of H5N6 virus in ducks was determined, and compared to that of H5N8 viruses detected in 2014 and 2016. A similar high pathogenicity was measured for H5N6 and H5N8 group B viruses, suggesting that biological or ecological factors in the wild bird population may have affected the mortality rates during the H5N6 epidemic. These observations suggest different infection dynamics for the H5N6 and H5N8 group B viruses in the wild bird population.     

Experimental infection of H5N1 and H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in Northern Pintail (Anas acuta)

The wide geographic spread of Eurasian Goose/Guangdong lineage highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) clade 2.3.4.4 viruses by wild birds is of great concern. In December 2014, an H5N8 HPAI clade 2.3.4.4 Group A (2.3.4.4A) virus was introduced to North America. Long‐distance migratory wild aquatic birds between East Asia and North America, such as Northern Pintail (Anas acuta ), were strongly suspected of being a source of intercontinental transmission. In this study, we evaluated the pathogenicity, infectivity and transmissibility of an H5N8 HPAI clade 2.3.4.4A virus in Northern Pintails and compared the results to that of an H5N1 HPAI clade 2.3.2.1 virus. All of Northern Pintails infected with either H5N1 or H5N8 virus lacked clinical signs and mortality, but the H5N8 clade 2.3.4.4 virus was more efficient at replicating within and transmitting between Northern Pintails than the H5N1 clade 2.3.2.1 virus. The H5N8‐infected birds shed high titre of viruses from oropharynx and cloaca, which in the field supported virus transmission and spread. This study highlights the role of wild waterfowl in the intercontinental spread of some HPAI viruses. Migratory aquatic birds should be carefully monitored for the early detection of H5 clade 2.3.4.4 and other HPAI viruses.     

Spatio‐temporal distribution of outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 in Vietnam, 2015– 2018

Despite strong commitments of the central and provincial veterinary authorities in Vietnam to control highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI‐H5N1) in poultry and to diminish the risk of human infection, outbreaks continue to occur in poultry. This study describes the spatio‐temporal distribution of HPAI‐H5N1 outbreaks in Vietnam for the period December 2014–April 2018 using the space‐time K‐function and the space‐time scan statistic. The space‐time K‐function analyses showed statistically significant spatio‐temporal clustering of HPAI‐H5N1 outbreaks in poultry during the study period of up to 50 days and 60 kilometres. The space‐time scan statistic test identified three statistically significant space‐time clusters of HPAI‐H5N1 in the south of the country where the incidence of HPAI‐H5N1 outbreaks was greater than that expected if outbreaks were randomly distributed in space and time. The analyses indicated shortfalls in the effectiveness of control measures used to control HPAI‐H5N1 throughout the study period. Development of a better understanding of the relative impact of HPAI‐H5N1 control measures (depopulation of infected flocks, vaccination, movement restrictions) on space‐time interaction would allow animal health authorities to focus their efforts on control measures shown to have the greatest relative effect.     

Highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 outbreaks in Dutch poultry farms, 2014–2018: Clinical signs and mortality

In recent years, different subtypes of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses caused outbreaks in several poultry types worldwide. Early detection of HPAI virus infection is crucial to reduce virus spread. Previously, the use of a mortality ratio threshold to expedite notification of suspicion in layer farms was proposed. The purpose of this study was to describe the clinical signs reported in the early stages of HPAI H5N8 and H5N6 outbreaks on chicken and Pekin duck farms between 2014 and 2018 in the Netherlands and compare them with the onset of an increased mortality ratio (MR). Data on daily mortality and clinical signs from nine egg‐producing chicken farms and seven Pekin duck farms infected with HPAI H5N8 (2014 and 2016) and H5N6 (2017–2018) in the Netherlands were analysed. In 12 out of 15 outbreaks for which a MR was available, MR increase preceded or coincided with the first observation of clinical signs by the farmer. In one chicken and two Pekin duck outbreaks, clinical signs were observed prior to MR increase. On all farms, veterinarians observed clinical signs of general disease. Nervous or locomotor signs were reported in all Pekin duck outbreaks, but only in two chicken outbreaks. Other clinical signs were observed less frequently in both chickens and Pekin ducks. Compared to veterinarians, farmers observed and reported clinical signs, especially respiratory and gastrointestinal signs, less frequently. This case series suggests that a MR with a set threshold could be an objective parameter to detect HPAI infection on chicken and Pekin duck farms at an early stage. Observation of clinical signs may provide additional indication for farmers and veterinarians for notifying a clinical suspicion of HPAI infection. Further assessment and validation of a MR threshold in Pekin ducks are important as it could serve as an important tool in HPAI surveillance programs.     

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N8 Clade 2.3.4.4 Virus: Equivocal Pathogenicity and Implications for Surveillance Following Natural Infection in Breeder Ducks in the United Kingdom

Since early 2014, several outbreaks involving novel reassortant highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N8) viruses have been detected in poultry and wild bird species in Asia, Europe and North America. These viruses have been detected in apparently healthy and dead wild migratory birds, as well as in domestic chickens, turkeys, geese and ducks. In this study, we describe the pathology of an outbreak of H5N8 HPAIV in breeder ducks in the UK. A holding with approximately 6000 breeder ducks, aged approximately 60 weeks, showed a gradual reduction in egg production and increased mortality over a 7‐day period. Post‐mortem examination revealed frequent fibrinous peritonitis, with severely haemorrhagic ovarian follicles and occasional splenic and pancreatic necrosis and high incidence of mycotic granulomas in the air sacs and lung. Low‐to‐moderate levels of HPAI H5N8 virus were detected mainly in respiratory and digestive tract, with minor involvement of other organs. Although histopathological examination confirmed the gross pathology findings, intralesional viral antigen detection by immunohistochemistry was not observed. Immunolabelled cells were rarely only present in inflamed air sacs and serosa, usually superficial to granulomatous inflammation. Abundant bacterial microcolonies were observed in haemorrhagic ovaries and oviduct. The limited viral tissue distribution and presence of inter‐current fungal and bacterial infections suggest a minor role for HPAIV H5N8 in clinical disease in layer ducks.     

Risk of Introduction of H5N1 HPAI from Europe to Spain by Wild Water Birds in Autumn

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 continues to circulate across Eurasia and Africa since its unprecedented rapid spread in 2005. Diffusion by wild bird movements has been evidenced in the European Union in 2006 and 2007. Spain is an important wintering quarter for aquatic birds from northern latitudes, so identifying the critical areas and species where an outbreak is prone to happen is necessary. This work presents an assessment of the risk of introduction of H5N1 HPAI in Spain by aquatic wild birds estimating a relative risk value per province. For this purpose, an assessment of the release and exposure to the risk of infection with H5N1 HPAI of 25 selected water bird species has been carried out. Parameters considered in the assessment include H5N1 HPAI notifications from 2006 to 2008 and factors that favour the occurrence or persistence of H5N1 HPAI (wetlands’ surface, low temperatures), together with aquatic wild birds’ movements parameters (departure, destination, stop‐overs, abundance) and parameters relative to the susceptible population in Spain: poultry density and wild aquatic abundance. Results show the relative risk for each Spanish province of experiencing H5N1 HPAI introduced by wild aquatic birds helping to identify higher risk areas.     

Respiratory disease due to mixed viral infections in poultry flocks in Egypt between 2017 and 2018: Upsurge of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N8 since 2018

For several years, poultry production in Egypt has been suffering from co‐circulation of multiple respiratory viruses including highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 (clade 2.2.1.2) and low pathogenic H9N2 (clade G1‐B). Incursion of HPAIV H5N8 (clade 2.3.4.4b) to Egypt in November 2016 via wild birds followed by spread into commercial poultry flocks further complicated the situation. Current analyses focussed on 39 poultry farms suffering from respiratory manifestation and high mortality in six Egyptian governorates during 2017–2018. Real‐time RT‐PCR (RT‐qPCR) substantiated the co‐presence of at least two respiratory virus species in more than 80% of the investigated flocks. The percentage of HPAIV H5N1‐positive holdings was fairly stable in 2017 (12.8%) and 2018 (10.2%), while the percentage of HPAIV H5N8‐positive holdings increased from 23% in 2017 to 66.6% during 2018. The proportion of H9N2‐positive samples was constantly high (2017:100% and 2018:63%), and H9N2 co‐circulated with HPAIV H5N8 in 22 out of 39 (56.8%) flocks. Analyses of 26 H5, 18 H9 and 4 N2 new sequences confirmed continuous genetic diversification. In silico analysis revealed numerous amino acid substitutions in the HA and NA proteins suggestive of increased adaptation to mammalian hosts and putative antigenic variation. For sensitive detection of H9N2 viruses by RT‐qPCR, an update of primers and probe sequences was crucial. Reasons for the relative increase of HPAIV H5N8 infections versus H5N1 remained unclear, but lack of suitable vaccines against clade 2.3.4.4b cannot be excluded. A reconsideration of surveillance and control measures should include updating of diagnostic tools and vaccination strategies.     

Emergence and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) in Europe in 2016‐2017

Circulation of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI ) viruses poses a continuous threat to animal and public health. After the 2005–2006 H5N1 and the 2014–2015 H5N8 epidemics, another H5N8 is currently affecting Europe. Up to August 2017, 1,112 outbreaks in domestic and 955 in wild birds in 30 European countries have been reported, the largest epidemic by a HPAI virus in the continent. Here, the main epidemiological findings are described. While some similarities with previous HPAI virus epidemics were observed, for example in the pattern of emergence, significant differences were also patent, in particular the size and extent of the epidemic. Even though no human infections have been reported to date, the fact that A/H5N8 has affected so far 1,112 domestic holdings, increases the risk of exposure of humans and therefore represents a concern. Understanding the epidemiology of HPAI viruses is essential for the planning future surveillance and control activities.     

Genetic and pathogenic characteristics of clade 2.3.2.1c H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses isolated from poultry outbreaks in Laos during 2015–2018

Since 2004, there have been multiple outbreaks of H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses in Laos. Here, we isolated H5N1 HPAI viruses from poultry outbreaks in Laos during 2015–2018 and investigated their genetic characteristics and pathogenicity in chickens. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the isolates belonged to clade 2.3.2.1c and that they differed from previous Laos viruses with respect to genetic composition. In particular, the isolates were divided into two genotypes, each of which had a different NS segments. The results of possible migration analysis suggested a high likelihood that the Laos isolates were introduced from neighbouring countries, particularly Vietnam. The recent Laos isolate, A/Duck/Laos/NL‐1504599/2018, had an intravenous pathogenicity index score of 3.0 and showed a 50% chicken lethal dose of 10^2.5 EID₅₀/0.1 ml, indicating high pathogenicity. The isolated viruses exhibited no critical substitution in the markers associated with mammalian adaptation, but possess markers related to neuraminidase inhibitor resistance. These results emphasize the need for ongoing surveillance of circulating influenza virus in South‐East Asia, including Laos, to better prepare for and mitigate global spread of H5 HPAI.     

Identification of Potential Risk Factors Associated with Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N1 Outbreak Occurrence in Lagos and Kano States,Nigeria, During the 2006–2007 Epidemics

Highly pathogenic avian influenza HPAI H5N1 was first reported in Africa in 2006, in Nigeria. The country experienced severe outbreaks in 2006 and 2007, strongly affecting the poultry population. Current knowledge on potential risk factors for HPAI H5N1 occurrence in poultry farms in Nigeria is limited. Therefore, we conducted a case–control study to identify potential farm‐level risk factors for HPAI H5N1 occurrence in two areas of the country that were affected by the disease in 2006 and 2007, namely the States of Lagos and Kano. A case–control study was conducted at the farm level. A convenience sample of 110 farms was surveyed. Data on farm characteristics, farm management and trade practices were collected. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with farms that confirmed positive for HPAI. Having a neighbouring poultry farm was identified as a potential risk factor for disease occurrence [OR, 5.23; 95% CI, (0.88–30.97); P‐value = 0.048]. Farm staff washing their hands before handling birds was a protective factor [OR, 0.14; 95% CI, (0.05–0.37); P‐value <0.001], as well as not allowing traders to enter the farm [OR, 0.23; 95% CI, (0.08–0.70); P‐value = 0.008]. Our study highlighted the importance of trade and proximity between poultry farms in the epidemiology of HPAI H5N1 and the role of biosecurity in disease prevention in Kano and Lagos States. Despite the limitations owing to the sampling strategy, these results are consistent with other risk factor studies previously conducted on HPAI H5N1 in both Africa and other regions, suggesting similar risk factor patterns for HPAI H5N1 virus spread and substantiating current knowledge regarding the epidemiology of the disease. Finally, this study generated information from areas where data are difficult to obtain.     

Association of wild bird densities around poultry farms with the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N8 outbreaks in the Netherlands, 2016

Highly pathogenic (HP) avian influenza viruses (AIV) can spread globally through migratory birds and cause massive outbreaks in commercial poultry. AIV outbreaks have been associated with proximity to waterbodies, presence of waterfowl or wild bird cases near poultry farms. In this study, we compared densities of selected HPAI high‐risk wild bird species around 7 locations (H farms) infected with HPAIV H5N8 in the Netherlands in 2016–2017 to densities around 21 non‐infected reference farms. Nine reference farms were in low‐lying water‐rich areas (R‐W) and 12 in higher non‐water‐rich areas (R‐NW). Average monthly numbers/km² of Eurasian wigeons, tufted ducks, Anatidae (ducks, geese and swans) and Laridae (gulls) were calculated between September and April in rings of 0–1, 1–3, 3–6 and 6–10 km around the farms. Linear mixed model analyses showed generally higher bird densities for H and R‐W compared to R‐NW farms between October and March. This was most striking for Eurasian wigeons, with in peak month December 105 (95% CI:17–642) and 40 (7–214) times higher densities around H and R‐W farms, respectively, compared to R‐NW farms. Increased densities around H farms for Eurasian wigeons and Anatidae were more pronounced for distances up to 10 km compared to 0–1 km that mostly consists of the farm yard, which is an unattractive habitat for waterfowl. This distance effect was not observed in gulls, nor in tufted ducks that live on large open waterbodies which are unlikely to be within 0–1 km of farms. This study provides insights into spatio‐temporal density dynamics of HPAI high‐risk birds around farms and their associations with poultry outbreaks. The outcomes indicate that knowledge of environmental and ecological drivers for wild bird presence and abundance may facilitate identification of priority areas for surveillance and biosecurity measures and decisions on establishments of poultry farms to reduce risk of HPAI outbreaks.     

Experimental infection of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses,Clade 2.3.4.4 H5N6 and H5N8, in Mandarin ducks from South Korea

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI ) have been reported worldwide. Wild waterfowl play a major role in the maintenance and transmission of HPAI . Highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N6 and H5N8 viruses simultaneously emerged in South Korea. In this study, the comparative pathogenicity and infectivity of Clade 2.3.4.4 Group B H5N8 and Group C H5N6 viruses were evaluated in Mandarin duck (Aix galericulata ). None of the ducks infected with H5N6 or H5N8 viruses showed clinical signs or mortality. Serological assays revealed that the HA antigenicity of H5N8 and H5N6 viruses was similar to each other. Moreover, both the viruses did not replicate after cross‐challenging with H5N8 and H5N6 viruses, respectively, as the second infection. Although both the viruses replicated in most of the internal organs of the ducks, viral replication and shedding through cloaca were higher in H5N8‐infected ducks than in H5N6‐infected ducks. The findings of this study provide preliminary information to help estimate the risks involved in further evolution and dissemination of Clade 2.3.4.4 HPAI viruses among wild birds.     

Avian Influenza H5N1 Surveillance and its Dynamics in Poultry in Live Bird Markets,Egypt

H5N1, a highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1 HPAI), is an endemic disease that is significant for public health in Egypt. Live bird markets (LBMs) are widespread in Egypt and play an important role in HPAI disease dynamics. The aim of the study was to evaluate the H5N1 HPAI prevalence in representative LBMs from 2009 to 2014, assess the effects of other variables and evaluate past outbreaks and human cases. It was found that ducks and geese are high‐risk species and that the prevalence of H5N1 HPAI was higher immediately after the political crises of 2011. The end of a calendar year (June to December) was a high‐risk period for positive samples, and the risk in urban LBMs was twice the risk in rural LBMs. Winter and political unrest was associated with higher H5N1 HPAI prevalence. Both human and poultry populations will continue to rise in Egypt, so continued poultry outbreaks are likely to be linked to more human cases. LBMs will continue to play a role in the dynamics of poultry disease in Egypt, and there is a need to reorganize markets in terms of biosecurity and traceability. It may also be beneficial to reduce inter‐governorate inter‐regional movements associated with poultry trade through promotion of regional trade or in the alternative provide sanitary features along the poultry market chain to reduce the speed of H5N1 HPAI infections. Policy formulation, design and enforcement must be pro‐poor, and consideration of the sociocultural and economic realities in Egypt is important. The LBMs provide ideal platforms to carry out sound surveillance plans and mitigate zoonotic risks of H5N1 HPAI to humans.     

Risk Assessment of the Introduction of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza as a Tool to be Applied in Prevention Strategy Plan

Risks of the introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 through migratory birds to the main wintering site for wild birds in southern Brazil and its consequences were assessed. Likelihoods were estimated by a qualitative scale ranging from negligible to high. Northern migrants that breed in Alaska and regularly migrate to South America (primary Charadriiformes) can have contact with birds from affected areas in Asia. The likelihood of the introduction of HPAI H5N1 through migratory birds was found to be very low as it is a probability conditioned to successful transmission in breeding areas and the probabilities of an infected bird migrating and shedding the virus as far as southern Brazil. The probability of wild species becoming exposed to H5N1‐infected birds is high as they nest with northern migrants from Alaska, whereas for backyard poultry it is moderate to high depending on proximity to wetlands and the presence of species that could increase the likelihood of contact with wild birds such as domestic duck. The magnitude of the biological and economic consequences of successful transmission to poultry or wild birds would be low to severe depending on the probability of the occurrence of outbreak scenarios described. As a result, the risk estimate is greater than negligible, and HPAI H5N1 prevention strategy in the region should always be carefully considered by the veterinary services in Brazil.     

Characterization of H7N9 avian influenza viruses isolated from duck meat products

Avian influenza H7N9 viruses have caused five epidemic waves of human infections since the first human cases were reported in 2013. In 2016, the initial low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) H7N9 viruses became highly pathogenic, acquiring multi‐basic amino acids at the haemagglutinin cleavage site. These highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H7N9 viruses have been detected in poultry and humans in China, causing concerns of a serious threat to global public health. In Japan, both HPAI and LPAI H7N9 viruses were isolated from duck meat products carried illegally and relinquished voluntarily at the border by passengers on flights from China to Japan between 2016 and 2017. Some of the LPAI and HPAI H7N9 viruses detected at the border in Japan were characterized previously in chickens and ducks; however, their pathogenicity and replicative ability in mammals remain unknown. In this study, we assessed the biological features of two HPAI H7N9 virus isolates [A/duck/Japan/AQ‐HE29‐22/2017 (HE29‐22) and A/duck/Japan/AQ‐HE29‐52/2017 (HE29‐52); both of these viruses were isolated from duck meat at the border)] and an LPAI H7N9 virus isolate [A/duck/Japan/AQ‐HE28‐3/2016 (HE28‐3)] in mice and ferrets. In mice, HE29‐52 was more pathogenic than HE29‐22 and HE28‐3. In ferrets, the two HPAI virus isolates replicated more efficiently in the lower respiratory tract of the animals than did the LPAI virus isolate. Our results indicate that HPAI H7N9 viruses with the potential to cause severe diseases in mammals have been illegally introduced to Japan.     

Epidemiological and Molecular Analysis of an Outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N8 clade 2.3.4.4 in a German Zoo: Effective Disease Control with Minimal Culling

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus (HPAIV) subtype H5N8, clade 2.3.4.4, were first reported in January 2014 from South Korea. These viruses spread rapidly to Europe and the North American continent during autumn 2014 and caused, in Germany, five outbreaks in poultry holdings until February 2015. In addition, birds kept in a zoo in north‐eastern Germany were affected. Only a few individual white storks (Ciconia ciconia) showed clinical symptoms and eventually died in the course of the infection, although subsequent in‐depth diagnostic investigations showed that other birds kept in the same compound of the white storks were acutely positive for or had undergone asymptomatic infection with HPAIV H5N8. An exception from culling all of the 500 remaining zoo birds was granted by the competent authority. Restriction measures included grouping the zoo birds into eight epidemiological units in which 60 birds of each unit tested repeatedly negative for H5N8. Epidemiological and phylogenetical investigations revealed that the most likely source of introduction was direct or indirect contact with infected wild birds as the white storks had access to a small pond frequented by wild mallards and other aquatic wild birds during a period of 10 days in December 2014. Median network analysis showed that the zoo bird viruses segregated into a distinct cluster of clade 2.3.4.4 with closest ties to H5N8 isolates obtained from mute swans (Cygnus olor) in Sweden in April 2015. This case demonstrates that alternatives to culling exist to rescue valuable avifaunistic collections after incursions of HPAIV.     

Phylogeography of H5N1 avian influenza virus in Indonesia

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI ) viruses of the H5N1 subtype are a major concern to human and animal health in Indonesia. This study aimed to characterize transmission dynamics of H5N1 over time using novel Bayesian phylogeography methods to identify factors which have influenced the spread of H5N1 in Indonesia. We used publicly available hemagglutinin sequence data sampled between 2003 and 2016 to model ancestral state reconstruction of HPAI H5N1 evolution. We found strong support for H5N1 transmission routes between provinces in Java Island and inter‐island transmissions, such as between Nusa Tenggara and Kalimantan Islands, not previously described. The spread is consistent with wild bird flyways and poultry trading routes. H5N1 migration was associated with the regions of high chicken densities and low human development indices. These results can be used to inform more targeted planning of H5N1 control and prevention activities in Indonesia.     

Risk factors associated with highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N8 outbreaks on broiler duck farms in South Korea

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI ) subtype H5N8 outbreaks occurred in poultry farms in South Korea in 2014 resulting in significant damage to the poultry industry. Between 2014 and 2016, the pandemic disease caused significant economic loss and social disruption. To evaluate the risk factors for HPAI infection in broiler duck farms, we conducted a retrospective case–control study on broiler duck farms. Forty‐three farms with confirmed laboratories on premises were selected as the case group, and 43 HPAI ‐negative farms were designated as the control group. Control farms were matched based on farm location and were within a 3‐km radius from the case premises. Spatial and environmental factors were characterized by site visit and plotted through a geographic information system (GIS ). Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were developed to assess possible risk factors associated with HPAI broiler duck farm infection. Four final variables were identified as risk factors in a final multivariable logistic model: “Farms with ≥7 flocks” (odds ratio [OR ] = 6.99, 95% confidence interval [CI ] 1.34–37.04), “Farm owner with ≥15 years of raising poultry career” (OR  = 7.91, 95% CI 1.69–37.14), “Presence of any poultry farms located within 500 m of the farm” (OR  = 6.30, 95% CI 1.08–36.93) and “Not using a faecal removal service” (OR  = 27.78, 95% CI 3.89–198.80). This highlights that the HPAI H5N8 outbreaks in South Korea were associated with farm owner education, number of flocks and facilities and farm biosecurity. Awareness of these factors may help to reduce the spread of HPAI H5N8 across broiler duck farms in Korea during epidemics. Greater understanding of the risk factors for H5N8 may improve farm vulnerability to HPAI and other subtypes and help to establish policies to prevent re‐occurrence. These findings are relevant to global prevention recommendations and intervention protocols.     

The Landscape Epidemiology of Seasonal Clustering of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Domestic Poultry in Africa,Europe and Asia

Highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1 (H5N1) has contributed to substantial economic loss for backyard and large‐scale poultry farmers each year since 1997. While the distribution of domestic H5N1 outbreaks across Africa, Europe and Asia is extensive, those features of the landscape conferring greatest risk remain uncertain. Furthermore, the extent to which influential landscape features may vary by season has been inadequately described. The current investigation used World Organization for Animal Health surveillance data to (i) delineate areas at greatest risk of H5N1 epizootics among domestic poultry, (ii) identify those abiotic and biotic features of the landscape associated with outbreak risk and (iii) examine patterns of epizootic clustering by season. Inhomogeneous point process models were used to predict the intensity of H5N1 outbreaks and describe the spatial dependencies between them. During October through March, decreasing precipitation, increasing isothermality and the presence of H5N1 in wild birds were significantly associated with the increased risk of domestic H5N1 epizootics. Conversely, increasing precipitation and decreasing isothermality were associated with the increased risk during April through September. Increasing temperature during the coldest quarter, domestic poultry density and proximity to surface water were associated with the increased risk of domestic outbreaks throughout the year. Spatial dependencies between outbreaks appeared to vary seasonally, with substantial clustering at small and large scales identified during October through March even after accounting for inhomogeneity due to landscape factors. In contrast, during April to September, H5N1 outbreaks exhibited no clustering at small scale once accounting for landscape factors. This investigation has identified seasonal differences in risk and clustering patterns of H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry and may suggest strategies in high‐risk areas with features amenable to intervention such as controlling domestic bird movement in areas of high poultry density or preventing contact between poultry and wild birds and/or surface water features.