Fall-risk screening test: a prospective study on predictors for falls in community-dwelling elderly

This large prospective cohort study was undertaken to construct a fall-risk model for elderly. The emphasis of the study rests on easily measurable predictors for any falls and recurrent falls. The occurrence of falls among 1285 community-dwelling elderly aged 65 years and over was followed during 1 year by means of a "fall calendar." Physical, cognitive, emotional and social functioning preceding the registration of falls were studied as potential predictors of fall-risk. Previous falls, visual impairment, urinary incontinence and use of benzodiazepines were the strongest predictors identified in the risk profile model for any falls (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.65), whereas previous falls, visual impairment, urinary incontinence and functional limitations proved to be the strongest predictors in the model for recurrent falls (AUC = 0.71). The probability of recurrent falls for subsequent scores of the screening test ranged from 4.7% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 4.0-5.4%) to 46.8% (95% CI: 43.0-50.6%). Our study provides a fall-risk screening test based on four easily measurable predictors that can be used for fall-risk stratification in community-dwelling elderly.     

The Clinical Potential of Frailty Indicators on Identifying Recurrent Fallers in the Community: The Mr. Os and Ms. OS Cohort Study in Hong Kong

ObjectivesTo compare the clinical value of 3 frailty indicators in a screening pathway for identifying older men and women who are at risk of falls.DesignA prospective cohort study.Setting and participantsFour thousand Chinese adults (2000 men) aged ≥65 years were recruited from the community in Hong Kong.MethodsThe Cardiovascular Health Study Criteria, the FRAIL scale, and the Study for Osteoporosis and Fracture Criteria (SOF) were included for evaluation. Fall history was used as a comparative predictor. Recurrent falls during the second year after baseline was the primary outcome. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the ability of the frailty indicators and fall history to predict recurrent falls. Independent predictors identified in logistic regression were put in the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis to evaluate their performance in screening high-risk fallers.ResultsFall history predicts recurrent falls in both men and women (AUC: men = 0.681; women = 0.645) better than all frailty indicators (AUC ≤ 0.641). After adjusting for fall history, only FRAIL (AUC = 0.676) and SOF (AUC = 0.673) remained as significant predictors for women whereas no frailty indicator remained significant in men.FRAIL could classify older women into 2 groups with distinct chances of being a recurrent faller in people with no fall history (3.8% vs 7.5%), a single fall history (9.5% vs 37.5%), and history of recurrent falls (16.0% vs 30.8%). SOF has limited ability in identifying recurrent fallers in the group of older adults with a single fall history (no fall history: 3.9% vs 8.6%; single fall history: 10.2% vs 10.9%; history of recurrent falls: 16.5% vs 20.6%).Conclusions and implicationsSOF and FRAIL could provide some additional prediction value to fall history in older women but not men. FRAIL could be clinically useful in identifying older women at risk of recurrent falls, especially in those with a single fall history.     

Predicting First-Time Injurious Falls in Older Men and Women Living in the Community: Development of the First Injurious Fall Screening Tool

ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to create a screening tool to predict first-time injurious falls in community-living older men and women.DesignLongitudinal cohort study between 2001 and 2009.SettingThe Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (SNAC-K), Sweden.ParticipantsCommunity-living older adults (n = 2808; 1750 women and 1058 men) aged ≥60 years (mean age 73, standard deviation 10.3).MeasurementsThe outcome was injurious falls within 5 years from baseline survey. Data on the risk factors for falls were collected through interviews, clinical examinations, and tests at baseline. Several previously established fall risk factors were identified for the development of the screening tool. The tool was formulated based on the β coefficients from sex-specific multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. The discriminative power was assessed using Harrell C statistic.ResultsOld age, living alone, being dependent in instrumental activities of daily living, and impaired balance were the factors included in the final score of the First Injurious Fall (FIF) screening tool. The predictive values (Harrell C statistic) for the scores were 0.75 for women and 0.77 for men. The sensitivity and specificity at the Youden cut-off points were 0.69 and 0.70 for women, and 0.72 and 0.71 for men.Conclusions and ImplicationsThe FIF screening tool for first injurious fall in older persons consists of 3 questions and a physical test (5-second 1-leg standing balance with eyes open). Quick and easy to administer, it could be ideal for use in primary care or public health to identify older men and women at high fall risk, who may benefit from primary preventive interventions.     

Quantifying the magnitude of risk for balance impairment on falls in community-dwelling older adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis

ObjectivesTo evaluate and summarize the evidence linking balance impairment as a risk factor for falls in community-dwelling older adults.Study Design and SettingSystematic review and meta-analysis. English language articles in MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL (1988–2009), under keywords of accidental falls, aged, risk factors, and hip, radius, ulna, and humerus fractures; and bibliographies of retrieved articles. Community-dwelling older adults in a prospective study, at least 1-year duration, age more than 60 years, and samples not specific to a single disease-defined population were included. Sample size, inclusion/exclusion criteria, demographics, clinical balance measurement scale, type of fall outcome, method of fall ascertainment, length of follow-up, and odds ratio (OR) or risk ratio (RR) were extracted. Studies must have reported adjustment for confounders. Random effects meta-analysis to generate summary risk estimate was used. A priori evaluation of sources of heterogeneity was performed.ResultsTwenty-three studies met the selection criteria. A single summary measure could not be calculated because of the nonequivalence of the OR and RR, producing an overall fall risk of RR of 1.42 (1.08, 1.85) and OR of 1.98 (1.60, 2.46).ConclusionsBalance impairment imparts a moderate increase on fall risk in community-dwelling older adults. The type of fall outcome, the length of follow-up, and the balance measurement tool impact the magnitude of the association. Specific balance measurement scales were identified with associations for an increased fall risk, but further research is required to refine recommendations for their use in clinical practice.     

External Validation of a Prediction Model for Falls in Older People Based on Electronic Health Records in Primary Care

ObjectiveEarly identification of older people at risk of falling is the cornerstone of fall prevention. Many fall prediction tools exist but their external validity is lacking. External validation is a prerequisite before application in clinical practice. Models developed with electronic health record (EHR) data are especially challenging because of the uncontrolled nature of routinely collected data. We aimed to externally validate our previously developed and published prediction model for falls, using a large cohort of community-dwelling older people derived from primary care EHR data.DesignRetrospective analysis of a prospective cohort drawn from EHR data.Setting and ParticipantsPseudonymized EHR data were collected from individuals aged ≥65 years, who were enlisted in any of the participating 59 general practices between 2015 and 2020 in the Netherlands.MethodsTen predictors were defined and obtained using the same methods as in the development study. The outcome was 1-year fall and was obtained from free text. Both reproducibility and transportability were evaluated. Model performance was assessed in terms of discrimination using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC), and in terms of calibration, using calibration-in-the-large, calibration slope and calibration plots.ResultsAmong 39,342 older people, 5124 (13.4%) fell in the 1-year follow-up. The characteristics of the validation and the development cohorts were similar. ROC-AUCs of the validation and development cohort were 0.690 and 0.705, respectively. Calibration-in-the-large and calibration slope were 0.012 and 0.878, respectively. Calibration plots revealed overprediction for high-risk groups in a small number of individuals.Conclusions and ImplicationsOur previously developed prediction model for falls demonstrated good external validity by reproducing its predictive performance in the validation cohort. The implementation of this model in the primary care setting could be considered after impact assessment.     

Characteristics of women using organized or opportunistic breast cancer screening in France. Analysis of the 2006 French Health,Health Care and Insurance Survey

BackgroundThis study aimed at (i) estimating the 2-year self-reported breast cancer screening coverage rate; and (ii) analyzing the relationships between sociodemographic characteristics and healthcare access of women and breast cancer screening (opportunistic or organized) practices.MethodsFrom a 2006 French health survey, 2056 women aged 50 to 74 years were selected and divided into three groups according to their breast cancer screening practices during the previous 2 years: organized screening, opportunistic screening, or no screening. The three groups were compared according to self-reported sociodemographic status, healthcare access, screening behaviors, and perceived health, using polytomic regression.ResultsThe 2-year self-reported coverage rate was 75.8%. It was high among women aged 50 to 69 years and lower among older women. Questions relating to medical access (i.e. having consulted a GP in the last 12 months, having consulted a gynecologist in the last 12 months, and having had a Pap smear in the last 3 years) were the variables most commonly associated with a recent mammogram. Women having a regular follow-up by a gynecologist or having had cervical cancer screening within the last three years used organized breast cancer screening more often and used opportunistic breast cancer screening even more often than other women.ConclusionThe study confirmed the key role of gynecologists and general practitioners in encouraging women to have a mammogram. Awareness among healthcare professionals and women of the benefits of organized breast cancer screening compared to opportunistic screening should be sustained and strengthened.     

Development and Internal Validation of a Prediction Model for Falls Using Electronic Health Records in a Hospital Setting

ObjectiveFall prevention is important in many hospitals. Current fall-risk-screening tools have limited predictive accuracy specifically for older inpatients. Their administration can be time-consuming. A reliable and easy-to-administer tool is desirable to identify older inpatients at higher fall risk. We aimed to develop and internally validate a prognostic prediction model for inpatient falls for older patients.DesignRetrospective analysis of a large cohort drawn from hospital electronic health record data.Setting and ParticipantsOlder patients (≥70 years) admitted to a university medical center (2016 until 2021).MethodsThe outcome was an inpatient fall (≥24 hours of admission). Two prediction models were developed using regularized logistic regression in 5 imputed data sets: one model without predictors indicating missing values (Model-without) and one model with these additional predictors indicating missing values (Model-with). We internally validated our whole model development strategy using 10-fold stratified cross-validation. The models were evaluated using discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and calibration (plot assessment). We determined whether the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of the models were significantly different using DeLong test.ResultsOur data set included 21,286 admissions. In total, 470 (2.2%) had a fall after 24 hours of admission. The Model-without had 12 predictors and Model-with 13, of which 4 were indicators of missing values. The AUCs of the Model-without and Model-with were 0.676 (95% CI 0.646-0.707) and 0.695 (95% CI 0.667-0.724). The AUCs between both models were significantly different (P = .013). Calibration was good for both models.Conclusions and ImplicationsBoth the Model-with and Model-without indicators of missing values showed good calibration and fair discrimination, where the Model-with performed better. Our models showed competitive performance to well-established fall-risk-screening tools, and they have the advantage of being based on routinely collected data. This may substantially reduce the burden on nurses, compared with nonautomatic fall-risk-screening tools.     

Do Exercises Prevent Falls Among Older Adults: Where Are We Now? A Systematic Review

ObjectiveTo determine whether single interventions (SI), multifactorial interventions (MI), or multiple component interventions (MCI) including vitamin D supplementation prevent the incidence of falls and fall risk factors among older adults who are community-dwelling or living in long-term care facilities.DesignSystematic review.MethodsPubMed, Scopus, MEDLINE, and Cochrane were searched with restrictions applied to publication year (2015‒2019) and language (limited to studies published in English). After duplicate removal and title and abstract screening, 2 authors independently identified eligible studies on the basis of inclusion criteria. Risk of bias and quality of evidence were assessed.ResultsThirty-four studies were included after screening titles and abstracts from 855 citations and 129 full-text articles. Thirteen randomized-controlled trials and clinical trials (5 on MI, 1 on MCI, and 7 on SI) including 2232 participants and 21 systematic reviews (assessing SI, MI, MCI, or all) were extracted for qualitative synthesis. Fifteen out of 20 studies that reported outcomes on falls rate found a significant reduction. Seventeen out of 23 studies with outcomes on fall risk factors concluded a significant improvement. Five studies found no significant differences in falls incidence, and 5 studies found no significant differences in fall risks. One study reported worsened outcomes, including poorer balance.Conclusion and ImplicationsAlthough results are inconclusive, SI, MI, and MCI involving exercises may prevent falls. Vitamin D supplementation may be beneficial alongside exercise; however, whether vitamin D use consistently reduces falls incidence or fall risks remains uncertain. Exercises that are individually tailored to participants’ capabilities and risks may be the most effective falls prevention interventions. Implementation may reduce medical costs and improve quality of life for older adults who are community-dwelling or are living in long-term care facilities.     

Older fallers attended to by an ambulance but not transported to hospital: a vulnerable population at high risk of future falls

Objective : This prospective cohort study describes older non‐transported fallers seen by the Ambulance Service of New South Wales (ASNSW), quantifies the level of risk and identifies predictors of future falls and ambulance use. Methods : Participants were 262 people aged 70 years or older with a fall‐related ASNSW attendance who were not transported to an emergency department. They completed a questionnaire about health, medical and physical factors previously associated with falling. Falls were monitored for six months after ambulance attendance with monthly fall calendars. Results : Participants had a high prevalence of chronic medical conditions, functional limitations and past falls. During follow‐up, 145 participants (58%) experienced 488 falls. Significant predictors of falls during follow‐up were three or more falls in the past year, being unable to walk more than 10 minutes without resting, and requiring assistance for personal‐care activities of daily living (ADLs). Sixty‐two participants (25%) required repeat, fall‐related ambulance attendance during the study. Predictors of repeat ambulance use were: 3+ falls in past year, requiring assistance for personal‐care ADLs and having disabling pain in past month. Conclusions : Older, non‐transported fallers seen by the ASNSW are a vulnerable population with high rates of chronic health conditions. Implications : Onward referral for preventive interventions may reduce future falls and ambulance service calls.     

A screening tool with five risk factors was developed for fall-risk prediction in community-dwelling elderly

Objective

To develop a simple clinical screening tool for community-dwelling older adults.

Study Design and Setting

A prospective multicenter cohort study was performed among healthy subjects of 65 years and older, examined in 10 health examination centers for the French health insurance. Falls were ascertained monthly by telephone for 12-month follow-up. Multivariate analyses using Cox regression models were performed. Regression coefficients of the predictors in the final model were added up to obtain the total score. The discriminative power was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC).

Results

Thousand seven hundred fifty-nine subjects were included. The mean age was 70.7 years and 51% were women. At least one fall occurred among 563 (32%) participants. Gender, living alone, psychoactive drug use, osteoarthritis, previous falls, and a change in the position of the arms during the one-leg balance (OLB) test were the strongest predictors. These predictors were used to build a risk score. The AUC of the score was 0.70. For a cutoff point of 1.68 in a total of 4.90, the positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 72.0% and 72.7%, respectively.

Conclusion

A screening tool with five risk factors and the OLB test could predict falls in healthy community-dwelling older adults.     

Validation of the LASA fall risk profile for recurrent falling in older recent fallers

ObjectivesThe fall risk profile developed in the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA) identifies community-dwelling elderly at high risk for recurrent falling. This study assessed the predictive validity of this profile in older persons seeking care after a fall.Study Design and SettingThe LASA fall risk profile was completed for 408 persons of 65 years and older who consulted the emergency department or general practitioner after a fall. Falls were prospectively reported with a calendar during 1 year. Recurrent falling was defined as ≥2 falls within a period of 6 months.ResultsDuring 1 year of followup, 76 (18.6%) participants became recurrent fallers. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.65 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.58–0.72). At a cutoff value of 8, the sensitivity was 56.6% (CI: 51.8–61.4), the specificity was 71.4% (CI: 67.0–75.8), the positive predictive value was 34.1% (CI: 29.5–38.7), and the negative predictive value was 85.6% (CI: 82.2–89.0).ConclusionThe discriminative ability of the LASA fall risk profile was moderate. The predictive validity of the LASA fall risk profile to identify recurrent fallers is limited among older persons who consulted the emergency department or general practitioner after a fall.     

Predictive Accuracy of Frailty Tools for Adverse Outcomes in a Cohort of Adults 80 Years and Older: A Decision Curve Analysis

ObjectivesTo compare the predictive performance of 3 frailty identification tools for mortality, hospitalization, and functional decline in adults aged ≥80 years using risk reclassification statistics and decision curve analysis.DesignPopulation-based, prospective cohort.SettingBELFRAIL study, Belgium.Participants560 community-dwelling adults aged ≥80 years.MeasurementsFrailty by Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) phenotype, Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA) markers, and Groeningen Frailty Indicator (GFI); mortality until 5.1 ± 0.25 years from baseline and hospitalization until 3.0 ± 0.25 years; and functional status assessed by activities of daily living at baseline and after 1.7 ± 0.21 years.ResultsFrailty prevalence was 7.3% by CHS phenotype, 21.6% by LASA markers, and 22% by GFI. Participants determined to be frail by each tool had a significantly higher risk for all-cause mortality and first hospitalization. For functional decline, only frail by GFI had a higher adjusted odds ratio. Harrell 's C-statistic for mortality and hospitalization and area under receiver operating characteristic curve for functional decline were similar for all tools and <0.70. Reclassification statistics showed improvement only by LASA markers for hospitalization and mortality. In decision curve analysis, all tools had higher net benefit than the 2 default strategies of “treat all” and “treat none” for mortality risk ≥20%, hospitalization risk ≥35%, and functional decline probability ≥10%, but their curves overlapped across all relevant risk thresholds for these outcomes.Conclusions and ImplicationsIn a cohort of adults aged ≥80 years, 3 frailty tools based on different conceptualizations and assessment sources had comparable but unsatisfactory discrimination for predicting mortality, hospitalization, and functional decline. All showed clinical utility for predicting these outcomes over relevant risk thresholds, but none was significantly superior. Future research on frailty tools should include a focus on the specific group of adults aged ≥80 years, and the predictive accuracy for adverse outcomes of different tools needs a comprehensive assessment that includes decision curve analysis.     

Using Decision-Analytic Modeling to Isolate Interventions That Are Feasible,Efficient and Optimal: An Application from the Norwegian Cervical Cancer Screening Program

BackgroundDecision makers often need to simultaneously consider multiple criteria or outcomes when deciding whether to adopt new health interventions.ObjectivesUsing decision analysis within the context of cervical cancer screening in Norway, we aimed to aid decision makers in identifying a subset of relevant strategies that are simultaneously efficient, feasible, and optimal.MethodsWe developed an age-stratified probabilistic decision tree model following a cohort of women attending primary screening through one screening round. We enumerated detected precancers (i.e., cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 2 or more severe (CIN2+)), colposcopies performed, and monetary costs associated with 10 alternative triage algorithms for women with abnormal cytology results. As efficiency metrics, we calculated incremental cost-effectiveness, and harm-benefit, ratios, defined as the additional costs, or the additional number of colposcopies, per additional CIN2+ detected. We estimated capacity requirements and uncertainty surrounding which strategy is optimal according to the decision rule, involving willingness to pay (monetary or resources consumed per added benefit).ResultsFor ages 25 to 33 years, we eliminated four strategies that did not fall on either efficiency frontier, while one strategy was efficient with respect to both efficiency metrics. Compared with current practice in Norway, two strategies detected more precancers at lower monetary costs, but some required more colposcopies. Similar results were found for women aged 34 to 69 years.ConclusionsImproving the effectiveness and efficiency of cervical cancer screening may necessitate additional resources. Although efficient and feasible, both society and individuals must specify their willingness to accept the additional resources and perceived harms required to increase effectiveness before a strategy can be considered optimal.     

Falls risk assessment outcomes and factors associated with falls for older Indigenous Australians

Objective: To describe the prevalence of falls and associated risk factors in older Indigenous Australians, and compare the accuracy of validated falls risk screening and assessment tools in this population in classifying fall status. Method: Cross‐sectional study of 289 Indigenous Australians aged ≥45 years from the Kimberley region of Western Australia who had a detailed assessment including self‐reported falls in the past year (n=289), the adapted Elderly Falls Screening Tool (EFST; n=255), and the Falls Risk for Older People‐Community (FROP‐Com) screening tool (3 items, n=74) and FROP‐Com falls assessment tool (n=74). Results: 32% of participants had ≥1 fall in the preceding year, and 37.3% were classified high falls risk using the EFST (cut‐off ≥2). In contrast, for the 74 participants assessed with the FROP‐Com, only 14.9% were rated high risk, 35.8% moderate risk, and 49.3% low risk. The FROP‐Com screen and assessment tools had the highest classification accuracy for identifying fallers in the preceding year (area under curve >0.85), with sensitivity/specificity highest for the FROP‐Com assessment (cut‐off ≥12), sensitivity=0.84 and specificity=0.73. Conclusions: Falls are common in older Indigenous Australians. The FROP‐Com falls risk assessment tool appears useful in this population, and this research suggests changes that may improve its utility further.     

Validity of Nutritional Screening Tools for Community-Dwelling Older Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

ObjectivesThe aim of this systematic review was to summarize the validity of nutritional screening tools to detect the risk of malnutrition in community-dwelling older adults.DesignA systematic review and meta-analysis. The protocol for this systematic review was registered in the PROSPERO database (CRD42017072703).Setting and participantsA literature search was performed in PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, and Cochrane using the combined terms “malnutrition,” “aged,” “community-dwelling,” and “screening.” The time frame of the literature reviewed was from January 1, 2001, to May 18, 2018. Older community-dwellers were defined as follows: individuals with a mean/median age of >65 years who were community-dwellers or attended hospital outpatient clinics and day hospitals. All nutritional screening tools that were validated in community-dwelling older adults against a reference standard to detect the risk of malnutrition, or with malnutrition, were included.MeasuresMeta-analyses were performed on the diagnostic accuracy of identified nutritional screening tools validated against the Mini Nutritional Assessment-Long Form (MNA-LF). The symmetric hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic models were used to estimate test performance.ResultsOf 7713 articles, 35 articles were included in the systematic review, and 9 articles were included in the meta-analysis. Seventeen nutritional screening tools and 10 reference standards were identified. The meta-analyses showed average sensitivities and specificities of 0.95 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75–0.99) and 0.95 (95% CI 0.85–0.99) for the Mini Nutritional Assessment-Short Form (MNA-SF; cutoff point ≤11), 0.85 (95% CI 0.80–0.89) and 0.87 (95% CI 0.86–0.89) for the MNA-SF-V1 (MNA-SF using body mass index, cutoff point ≤11), 0.85 (95% CI 0.77–0.89) and 0.84 (95% CI 0.79–0.87) for the MNA-SF-V2 (MNA-SF using calf circumference instead of body mass, cutoff point ≤11), respectively, using MNA-LF as the reference standard.Conclusions and ImplicationsThe MNA-SF, MNA-SF-V1, and MNA-SF-V2 showed good sensitivity and specificity to detect community-dwelling older adults at risk of malnutrition validated against the MNA-LF. Clinicians should consider the use of the cutoff point ≤11 on the MNA-SF, MNA-SF-V1, and MNA-SF-V2 to identify community-dwelling older adults at risk of malnutrition.     

A risk model for the prediction of recurrent falls in community-dwelling elderly: a prospective cohort study

The object of this article was to determine the predictive value of risk factors for recurrent falls and the construction of a fall risk model as a contribution to a mobility assessment for the identification of community-dwelling elderly at risk for recurrent falling in general practice. The design was a prospective cohort study (n = 311). There were four primary health care centers. A sample stratified on previous falls, age, and gender of community-dwelling elderly persons aged 70 years or over (n = 311) was taken from the respondents to a mail questionnaire (n = 1660). They were visited at home to assess physical and mental health, balance and gait, mobility and strength. A 36-week follow-up with telephone calls every 6 weeks was conducted. Falls and fall injuries were measured. During follow-up 197 falls were reported by 33% of the participants: one fall by 17% and two or more falls by 16%. Injury due to a fall was reported by 45% of the fallers: 2% hip fractures, 4% other fractures, and 39% minor injuries. A fall risk model for the prediction of recurrent falls with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.79, based on logistic regression analysis, showed that the main determinants for recurrent falls were: an abnormal postural sway (OR 3.9; 95% Cl 1.3-12.1), two or more falls in the previous year (OR 3.1; 95% Cl 1.5-6.7), low scores for hand grip strength (OR 3.1; 95% Cl 1.5-6.6), and a depressive state of mind (OR 2.2; 95% CI 1.1-4.5). To facilitate the use of the model for clinical practice, the model was converted to a "desk model" with three risk categories: low risk (0-1 predictor), moderate risk (two predictors), and high risk (> or =3 predictors). A fall risk model converted to a "desk model," consisting of the predictors postural sway, fall history, hand dynamometry, and depression, provides added value in the identification of community-dwelling elderly at risk for recurrent falling and facilitates the prediction of recurrent falls.     

Predictive Performance of the FIF Screening Tool in 2 Cohorts of Community-Living Older Adults

ObjectivesThe First-time Injurious Fall (FIF) screening tool was created to identify fall risk in community-living older adults who may benefit from primary preventive interventions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive performance of the FIF tool in 2 cohorts of older adults.DesignLongitudinal cohort study.Setting and ParticipantsThe Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Skåne (SNAC-S) and Blekinge (SNAC-B), Sweden. Community-living people aged ≥60 years (n = 2766).MethodsNurses and physicians collected data in the 2 cohorts through interviews and testing. Data on injurious falls were collected from register data and were defined as receipt of care after a fall. The FIF tool, consisting of 3 questions and 1 balance test, was examined in relation to injurious falls for up to 5 years of follow-up using Cox proportional hazards models. The predictive performance of the FIF tool was further explored using Harrell C statistic and Youden cut-off for sensitivity and specificity.ResultsThe hazard ratios (HRs) of an injurious fall in the high-risk group for women and men were 3.80 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.53, 5.73) and 5.10 (95% CI 2.57, 10.12) in SNAC-S and 4.45 (95% CI 1.86, 10.61) and 32.58 (95% CI 4.30, 247.05) in SNAC-B compared with those in the low risk group. The sensitivity and specificity of the Youden cut-off point (3 or higher for high-risk) were 0.64 and 0.69 for women and 0.68 and 0.69 for men in SNAC-S, and 0.64 and 0.74 for women and 0.94 and 0.68 for men in SNAC-B. The predictive values (Harrell C statistic) for the scores for women and men were 0.73 and 0.74 in SNAC-S and 0.72 and 0.89 in SNAC-B.Conclusions and ImplicationsOur results suggest that the FIF tool is a valid tool to use for prediction of first-time injurious falls in community-living older adults.     

Another Step Toward Hepatitis C Elimination: An Economic Evaluation of an Irish National Birth Cohort Testing Program

ObjectivesWe aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of offering once-off birth cohort testing for hepatitis C virus (HCV) to people in Ireland born between 1965 and 1985, the cohort with the highest reported prevalence of undiagnosed chronic HCV infection.MethodsSystematic and opportunistic HCV birth cohort testing programs, implemented over a 4-year timeframe, were compared with the current practice of population risk-based testing only in a closed-cohort decision tree and Markov model hybrid over a lifetime time horizon. Outcomes were expressed in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Costs were presented from the health system’s perspective in 2020 euro (€). Uncertainty was assessed via deterministic, probabilistic, scenario, and threshold analyses.ResultsIn the base case, systematic testing yielded the largest cost and health benefits, followed by opportunistic testing and risk-based testing. Compared with risk-based testing, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for opportunistic testing was €14 586 (95% confidence interval €4185-€33 527) per QALY gained. Compared with opportunistic testing, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for systematic testing was €16 827 (95% confidence interval €5106-€38 843) per QALY gained. These findings were robust across a range of sensitivity analyses.ConclusionsBoth systematic and opportunistic birth cohort testing would be considered an efficient use of resources, but systematic testing was the optimal strategy at willingness-to-pay threshold values typically used in Ireland. Although cost-effective, any decision to introduce birth cohort testing for HCV (in Ireland or elsewhere) must be balanced with considerations regarding the feasibility and budget impact of implementing a national testing program given high initial costs and resource use.     

A framework for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of patient decision aids: A case study using colorectal cancer screening

ObjectivePatient decision aids are important tools for facilitating balanced, evidence-based decision making. However, the potential of decision aids to lower health care utilization and costs is uncertain; few studies have investigated the cost-effectiveness of decision aids that change patient behavior. Using an example of a decision aid for colorectal cancer screening, we provide a framework for analyzing the cost-effectiveness of decision aids.MethodsA decision-analytic model with two strategies (decision aid or no decision aid) was used to calculate expected costs in U.S. dollars and benefits measured in life-years saved (LYS). Data from a systematic review of ten studies about decision aid effectiveness was used to calculate the percentage increase in the number of people choosing screening instead of no screening. We then calculated the incremental cost per LYS with the use of the decision aid.ResultsThe no decision aid strategy had an expected cost of $3023 and yielded 18.19 LYS. The decision aid strategy cost $3249 and yielded 18.20 LYS. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the decision aid strategy was $36,126 per LYS. Results were sensitive to the cost of the decision aid and the percentage change in behavior caused by the decision aid.ConclusionsThis study provides proof-of-concept evidence for future studies examining the cost-effectiveness of decision aids. The results suggest that decision aids can be beneficial and cost-effective.