| 2010—2019年中国居民四类慢性非传染病的死亡趋势及差别分解分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 习婧媛,韩颖,陈湘.2010—2019年中国居民四类慢性非传染病的死亡趋势及差别分解分析[J].现代预防医学,2022,0(12):2119-2125. |
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| 作者姓名： | 习婧媛 韩颖 陈湘 |
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| 作者单位： | 山西医科大学管理学院，山西 太原030001 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 分析2010—2019年我国居民4类主要慢性病（恶性肿瘤、糖尿病、心血管疾病和呼吸系统疾病）的死亡率变化趋势及影响其变化的因素。方法 数据来自全国疾病监测系统死亡数据资料，运用Joinpoint模型计算死亡率的年度平均变化百分比（AAPC）和年度变化百分比（APC），并用死亡率差别分解法解释该趋势变化的影响因素。结果 2010—2019年我国居民四种慢性病的粗死亡率由456.22/10万上升至556.00/10万，标化死亡率由541.40/10万降至419.83/10万。死亡率变化是人口构成和其它危险因素共同作用的结果，其中人口构成因素促进了恶性肿瘤、糖尿病、心血管疾病和呼吸系统疾病死亡率的上升，贡献值分别48.52/10万、5.12/10万、135.28/10万、38.39/10万；其它危险因素促进糖尿病死亡率上升，而驱使另3种慢性病死亡率下降，贡献值分别- 23.11/10万、1.27/10万、- 55.87/10万、- 49.83/10万。结论 我国综合防控重大慢性病造成的死亡取得一定成效，但与此同时随着老龄化加剧，上述疾病依然是引发死亡的主要原因，卫生健康事业发展面临严峻挑战。
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| 关 键 词： | 慢性病 死亡率 趋势分析 差别分解法 |
Trend and differential decomposition analysis of four types of chronic noncommunicable diseases mortality among Chinese residents, 2010—2019 |
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| XI Jing-yuan,HAN Ying,CHEN Xiang.Trend and differential decomposition analysis of four types of chronic noncommunicable diseases mortality among Chinese residents, 2010—2019[J].Modern Preventive Medicine,2022,0(12):2119-2125. |
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| Authors: | XI Jing-yuan HAN Ying CHEN Xiang |
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| Affiliation: | School of Management, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030001, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To analyze the mortality trends of four major types of chronic diseases (malignant tumors, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and respiratory diseases) among Chinese residents from 2010 to 2019 and the factors affecting their changes. Methods Data were obtained from mortality information of the national disease surveillance system. The Joinpoint model was used to calculate the annual average percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) of mortality, and the factors influencing the change of trend were accounted for by the mortality differential decomposition method. Results From 2010 to 2019, the crude mortality rate of four chronic diseases among Chinese residents increased from 456.22/105 to 556.00/105, and the standardized mortality rate decreased from 541.40/105 to 419.83/105. Mortality changes were the result of a combination of demographic composition and other risk factors. Demographic composition factors contributed to malignant neoplasm, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease mortality by 48.52/105, 5.12/105, 135.28/105, and 38.39/105, respectively. Other risk factors contributed to the increase in diabetes mortality and drove down the mortality of the other three chronic diseases, by -23.11/105, 1.27/105, -55.87/105, and -55.87/105, respectively. Conclusion China has gained some achievements in comprehensive prevention and control of deaths caused by major chronic diseases. However, as aging problem intensifies, the above diseases are still the main causes of death, and the development of health care is facing serious challenges. |
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| Keywords: | Chronic diseases Mortality Trend analysis Differential decomposition method |
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