| 西安市新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情流行特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 白尧,吉兆华,张辉,冀贞浩,刘继锋,陈志军,陈保忠,刘昆,邵中军.西安市新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情流行特征[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2020,24(5):567-572. |
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| 作者姓名： | 白尧 吉兆华 张辉 冀贞浩 刘继锋 陈志军 陈保忠 刘昆 邵中军 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.710032 西安, 空军军医大学军事预防医学系军队防疫与流行病学教研室特殊作业环境危害评估与防治教育部重点实验室 |
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| 基金项目： | 创新工程项目;国家自然科学基金;军队生物安全基金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 探讨西安市新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情的流行规律, 为优化疫情防控策略提供科学依据。 方法 采用Excel 2007、SPSS 18.0、ArcGIS 10.3软件对COVID-19疫情数据进行描述性流行病学分析; 采用内插法计算COVID-19的潜伏期。 结果 西安市截至2020年3月6日累计报告COVID-19确诊病例120例、疑似病例738例, 报告发病率约为1.20/10万; 死亡1例, 病死率为0.83%。确诊病例以轻症为主(92.50%), 男性发病数(63例)多于女性(57例), 41~50岁病例数最多(21.97%)。发病高峰出现在2020年1月25日和1月31日。高发病地区主要分布在主城区的4个街道办事处(21.67%, 26/120)。108例出院病例的平均住院时间为16.00(15.58±5.45)d。全市累计发生23起聚集性疫情, 二代病例的平均续发率为31.73%, 其中13起(56.52%)的聚集性疫情发生在家庭内。西安市COVID-19的平均潜伏期为9 d。累计报告无症状感染者25例, 占SARS-Cov-19感染者的比例为17.24%(25/145)。 结论 西安市COVID-19疫情整体划分为二个阶段, 病例呈现随机的灶状分布, 未出现当地大范围传播, 需警惕家庭聚集性和无症状感染者传播的风险。
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| 关 键 词： | 新型冠状病毒肺炎 流行特征 潜伏期 无症状感染者 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-03-09 |
Analysis on the epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) in Xi'an |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an 710032, China2.Department of Infection Disease Control and Prevention, Xian Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Xi'an 710054, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To explore the epidemic feature of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases(COVID-19) in Xi'an, so as to provide scientific basis for optimizing the control strategy of COVID-19. Methods Excel 2007, SPSS 18.0 and ArcGIS 10.3 software were used to describe the distribution of the disease as well as aggregated epidemic feature. The latent period of COVID-19 in Xi'an was calculated by interpolation method. Results By March 6 th, 2020, a total of 120 confirmed cases, 738 suspected cases of COVID were reported in Xi'an, with an average incidence of 1.20 per 100 000, and 1 death case with the case-fatality rate of 0.83%. There were more male cases(63) than female(57), most mild cases(92.50%) and aged 41-50 years old cases(21.97%) among confirmed cases. The epidemic curve show that the peak occurred on January 25 th as well as January 31 th, 2020, respectively. The high incidence area was mainly distributed in the four subdistricts of the main urban area of Xi'an city(21.67%, 26/120). The average time of stay in hospital of 108 discharged cases was 16.00 days(15.58±5.45 days). A total of 23 clusters of COVID-19 were occurred in Xi'an, with the average rate of recurrence of the second generation of cases was 31.73%, of which 13 outbreaks(56.52%) occurred in families. The average incubation period of COVID-19 in Xi'an was calculated as 9 days. A total of 25 cases of asymptomatic infection were reported, and accounted for 17.24% of those infected with the 2019 novel coronavirus. Conclusion The overall epidemic curve of Xi'an is divided into two stages. The cases are distributed in random focalization, and there is no local spread in Xi'an. It is necessary to be alert to the risk of family clustering and asymptomatic transmission. |
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