| 中国H5N1禽流感时空分布特征研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 卫小萌,张娟,李明涛,裴鑫.中国H5N1禽流感时空分布特征研究[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2021,25(11):1314-1319. |
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| 作者姓名： | 卫小萌 张娟 李明涛 裴鑫 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.030006 太原，山西大学复杂系统研究所, 山西省数学技术与大数据分析重点实验室 |
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| 基金项目： | 山西省青年基金项目201901D211158山西省高等学校科技创新项目2019L0112国家自然科学基金资助项目11601292国家自然科学基金资助项目11801398国家自然科学基金资助项目12101443 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 以中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)为研究区域，探究其2004—2019年H5N1亚型高致病禽流感发生次数时空分布特征。 方法 基于ArcGIS 10.5软件和SPSS 26.0软件，应用聚类分析和χ2检验研究H5N1疫病的时间分布特征和影响因素。应用空间自相关方法研究H5N1疫病的空间分布特征。 结果 通过时间聚类分析，得到在疫情流行阶段(2004—2005年)和平稳阶段(2006—2019年)，H5N1疫情暴发次数在时间分布上都存在聚集性，其中1月、2月、6月和11月为疫病的高发期。通过全局空间自相关分析，发现疫情流行阶段H5N1空间分布呈聚集性，疫情平稳阶段呈现随机分布。通过局部自相关分析，表明流行阶段H5N1热点地区集中在中国中部地区，主要包括乌鲁木齐、咸宁、岳阳、安庆、九江等市，平稳阶段的热点地区主要集中在中国西北部。χ2检验显示疫病发生与候鸟迁徙具有相关关系。 结论 中国H5N1禽流感在流行阶段具有时空聚集性，在平稳阶段仅具有一定的时间聚集性。
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| 关 键 词： | H5N1 时空统计方法 空间自相关 时间相关性 候鸟 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-02-22 |
Spatial and temporal distribution of H5N1 avian influenza in mainland China |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Shanxi Key Laboratory of Mathematical Techniques and Big Data Analysis on Disease Control and Prevention, Shanxi, Taiyuan 030006, China2.School of Mathematical Sciences, Shanxi University, Shanxi, Taiyuan 030006, China3.College of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Shanxi, Taiyuan 030024, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To explore the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the frequency of H5N1 subtype highly pathogenic avian influenza from 2004 to 2019 in 31 autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government in mainland China. Methods Based on ArcGIS10.5 and SPSS 26 software, cluster analysis and chi-square test were applied to investigate the temporal distribution characteristics and influencing factors of H5N1 epidemic disease. The spatial autocorrelation method was applied to study the spatial distribution characteristics of H5N1 epidemic diseases. Results Temporal cluster analysis showed that the frequency of H5N1 outbreak was clustering in the temporal distribution during both the epidemic phase (2004-2005) and the stationary phase (2006-2019), with January, February, June, and November being periods of high incidence of the disease. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the spatial distribution of H5N1 was clustering during the epidemic phase and presented a random distribution during the stationary phase of the epidemic. Local autocorrelation analysis showed that H5N1 hotspot areas in the epidemic stage were concentrated in Xinjiang and central China, mainly including Urumqi, Xianning, Yueyang, Anqing, and Jiujiang, and hotspot areas in the stable stage were mainly concentrated in northwest China. Chi-square test showed that there was a correlation between epidemic disease and bird migration. Conclusion The frequency of H5N1 avian influenza in mainland China has spatiotemporal clustering in the epidemic stage and only certain temporal clustering in the stable stage. |
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