| 基于死亡风险的中国不同气温带气温预警阈值研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴君乐,俞敏,周脉耕,周纯良,肖义泽,黄彪,许燕君,孟瑞琳,赵亮,胡建雄,何冠豪,许晓君,刘涛,肖建鹏,曾韦霖,郭凌川,李杏,马文军.基于死亡风险的中国不同气温带气温预警阈值研究[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2021,25(10):1139-1146. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴君乐 俞敏 周脉耕 周纯良 肖义泽 黄彪 许燕君 孟瑞琳 赵亮 胡建雄 何冠豪 许晓君 刘涛 肖建鹏 曾韦霖 郭凌川 李杏 马文军 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.510515 广州，南方医科大学公共卫生学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划2018YFA0606200国家自然科学基金42075173广东省医学科学技术研究基金A2021340 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 估算中国不同气温带气温健康预警的阈值，为发展基于死亡风险的气温健康预警系统提供科学依据。 方法 收集2006―2017年全国364个县、区作为研究点的死亡与气象数据，利用分布滞后非线性模型(distribution lag non-linear model, DLNM)和多变量Meta方法分析气温与死亡的暴露反应关系，划分气温预警阈值。 结果 研究期间日平均气温16.0 ℃，日平均相对湿度73.0%，日均死亡人数为8.3例。不同气温带的气温-死亡的暴露反应关系总体上呈倒“J”型。中温带、暖温带+北亚热带、中亚热带以及南亚热带冷效应低风险气温范围分别9.1~13.8 ℃、0.1~19.3 ℃、8.8~24.3 ℃以及9.9~25.3 ℃，中风险分别为1.8~9.1 ℃、-6.1~0.1 ℃、1.5~8.8 ℃以及4.8~9.9 ℃，高风险分别为＜1.8 ℃、＜-6.1 ℃、＜1.5 ℃以及＜4.8 ℃；热效应低风险气温范围分别为23.4~24.8 ℃、28.6~29.3 ℃、27.2~29.5 ℃以及28.2~28.6 ℃，中风险分别为24.8~26.1 ℃、29.3~30.1 ℃、29.5~31.0 ℃以及28.6~29.0 ℃，高风险分别为＞26.1 ℃、＞30.1 ℃、＞31.0 ℃以及＞29.0 ℃。所有气温带在高温端的日均死亡人数均随着风险等级增加而升高，而除了暖温带+北亚热带外，其他气温带在低温端的日均死亡人数随着风险等级增加而升高。 结论 基于死亡风险可以确定气温预警的阈值并进行预警等级划分，预警效果较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 死亡 气温 健康预警阈值 分布滞后非线性模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-04-09 |
A study on the thresholds of temperature for early warning in different temperature zones of China based on the temperature-mortality relationships |
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| Abstract: | Objective To estimate the thresholds of temperature for health early warning in different temperature zones in China, our study aims to provide support for developing health early warning system of temperature. Methods Daily mortality and meteorological data were collected from 364 Chinese locations during 2006-2017. Distribution lag non-linear model (DLNM) and multivariate Meta analyses were applied to estimate the association between temperature and mortality, and identified the thresholds of temperature. Results Mean of daily temperature was 16.0 ℃. Mean of daily relative humidity was 73.0%. Mean of daily non-accidental mortality was 8.3 cases. The relationships of daily average temperature with mortality in different climate zones were inverted "J" type. For cold effect, the temperature ranges of low risk in the temperate zone, warm temperate or north subtropics, middle subtropics and south subtropics were 9.1-13.8 ℃, 0.1-19.3 ℃, 8.8-24.3 ℃ and 9.9-25.3 ℃, respectively; and they were 1.8-9.1 ℃, -6.1-0.1 ℃, 1.5-8.8 ℃ and 4.8-9.9 ℃ for medium risks of cold temperature, respectively; and they were < 1.8 ℃, < -6.1 ℃, < 1.5 ℃ and < 4.8 ℃ for high risk of cold temperature, respectively. For heat effect, the temperature ranges of low risk were 23.4-24.8 ℃, 28.6-29.3 ℃, 27.2-29.5 ℃ and 28.2-28.6 ℃, respectively; and they were 24.8-26.1 ℃, 29.3-30.1 ℃, 29.5-31.0 ℃ and 28.6-29.0 ℃ for medium risk of hot temperature, respectively; and they were > 26.1 ℃, > 30.1 ℃, > 31.0℃ and > 29.0 ℃ for high risk of hot temperature, respectively. For heat effect in all climate zones, the average daily mortality increased with the increase of risk grade, For cold effect, the average daily mortality increased with the increase of risk grade in other three climate zones, except in warm temperate zone and northern subtropical zone. Conclusion Based on the temperature-mortality relationship, we identified the thresholds of temperature for health early warning, and the effectiveness of the early warning based on the thresholds is well. |
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