| 应用GM(1,1)灰色模型预测全国甲状腺癌发病趋势北大核心 |
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| 引用本文： | 文静,殷成宇,廖国伟,王苑,张洁.应用GM(1,1)灰色模型预测全国甲状腺癌发病趋势北大核心[J].现代肿瘤医学,2022,0(5):899-902. |
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| 作者姓名： | 文静 殷成宇 廖国伟 王苑 张洁 |
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| 作者单位： | 西南医科大学附属医院，四川 泸州 646000 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的:探讨应用GM(1,1)灰色模型在全国及分性别、地区的甲状腺癌发病率预测中的可行性,为制定措施预防甲状腺癌发病提供参考。方法:甲状腺癌发病数据来源于2008至2018年《中国肿瘤登记年报》,通过建立模型评价其预测效果并预测未来5年的发病率。结果:全国及分性别(男、女)、地区(城市、农村)甲状腺癌发病率预测模型分别为x^((1))(k+1)=37.5326e^(0.1152k)-33.2326(C=0.2083,P=1.00)、x^((1))(k+1)=15.6257e 0.1239k-13.6457(C=0.1969,P=1.00)、x^((1))(k+1)=59.7419e^(0.113k)-53.0619(C=0.2150,P=1.00)、x^((1))(k+1)=35.4451e ^(0.1408k)-30.2251(C=0.1519,P=1.00)、x^((1))(k+1)=16.7016e^(0.1294k)-15.0216(C=0.4918,P=1.00)。结论:GM(1,1)灰色预测模型可较好的拟合全国及分性别、城市的甲状腺癌发病率变化趋势并预测,对农村的拟合效果稍差。预测未来5年全国及分性别、地区甲状腺癌发病率将持续上升,提示应采取有针对性的措施加以预防。
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| 关 键 词： | 甲状腺癌发病率 GM(1 1) 预测 |
Application of GM(1,1)model in predicting the incidence trend of thyroid cancer in China |
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| WEN Jing,YIN Chengyu,LIAO Guowei,WANG Yuan,ZHANG Jie.Application of GM(1,1)model in predicting the incidence trend of thyroid cancer in China[J].Journal of Modern Oncology,2022,0(5):899-902. |
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| Authors: | WEN Jing YIN Chengyu LIAO Guowei WANG Yuan ZHANG Jie |
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| Affiliation: | The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University,Sichuan Luzhou 646000,China. |
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| Abstract: | Objective:To explore the feasibility of appliying GM(1,1)in predicting the incidence trend of thyroid cancer in the different areas and genders in order to provide basic information for making cancer control strategy.Methods:The cancer incidence data from Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report(2008 to 2018)that published were retrieved.Basing on the models to predict the indence trend of tryroid cancer in the next five years.Results:The models were x(1)(k+1)=37.5326e0.1152k-33.2326(C=0.2083,P=1.00),x(1)(k+1)=15.6257e0.1239k-13.6457(C=0.1969,P=1.00),x(1)(k+1)=59.7419e0.113k-53.0619(C=0.2150,P=1.00),x(1)(k+1)=35.4451e0.1408k-30.2251(C=0.1519,P=1.00),x(1)(k+1)=16.7016e0.1294k-15.0216(C=0.4918,P=1.00).Conclusion:The predictive models were more fitting in China,different sexs and city region,excepting the country area.The incidence trend of thyroid cancer in the next five years show continued growth.Countermeasures should be adopted to prevent thyroid cancer. |
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| Keywords: | incidence of thyroid cancer GM(1 1) prediction |
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