| 浙江省台州市极端高温和低温对心脑血管疾病死亡的影响分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 何贤省,蒋峻.浙江省台州市极端高温和低温对心脑血管疾病死亡的影响分析[J].疾病监测,2018,33(7):609-613. |
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| 作者姓名： | 何贤省 蒋峻 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.浙江省三门县中医院急诊科，浙江 台州 317100 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 调查浙江省台州市气温与心脑血管疾病死亡率间关系。 方法 收集2014年1月1日至2016年12月31日台州市心血管疾病（CVD）和脑血管疾病（CBD）数据，使用具有对数关联和泊松误差的分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM）来分析温度对CVD和CBD死亡率及其相关滞后结构的影响。 结果 CBD和CVD的温度–死亡率曲线相似，均呈U形。CBD的冷热阈值分别为12 ℃和25 ℃，CVD的冷热阈值分别为12 ℃和26 ℃。随着滞后天数增加，寒冷累积效应逐渐增加，CBD（RR＝1.068，95%CI:1.052 ~ 1.084）和CVD（RR＝1.111，95%CI:1.078 ~ 1.145）的滞后效应峰值出现在滞后27 d（Lag0～27）。CBD（RR＝1.017，95%CI:1.004 ~ 1.030）和CVD（RR＝1.036，95%CI:1.012 ~ 1.061）的高温效应均在滞后当天（Lag0）出现峰值。 结论 极端高温和低温均与台州市心脑血管疾病死亡率增加有关，其中低温影响有很长的滞后期，而高温影响则较短。
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| 关 键 词： | 心血管疾病 脑血管疾病 时间序列 极端温度 滞后效应 死亡率 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-12-15 |
Effects of extreme high/low air temperature on mortality of cardio and cerebrovascular disease |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Department of Emergency, Shanmen County Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Taizhou 317100, Zhejiang, China2.Department of Cardiology, Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University Medical College, Hangzhou 310009, Zhejiang, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To understand the association between air temperature and cardio and cerebrovascular disease mortality in the urban area of Taizhou, Zhejiang province. Methods Poisson regression model in a distributed lag nonlinear model framework was used to analyze the effect of air temperature on mortality rates of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cerebrovascular disease (CBD) and related lag effects. Results U-shaped curves on relationships between air temperature and the mortality rates of CBD and CVD were observed. The cold and heat thresholds were 12 °C and 25 °C for CBD, 12 °C and 26 °C for CVD, respectively. The cold effects increased gradually with the lag days. The peak of cold effects appeared on lag 0–27 days for CBD (RR＝1.068, 95% CI: 1.052–1.084) and CVD (RR＝1.111, 95% CI: 1.078–1.145). As for heat effects, the peak was observed on the current day (lag 0) for CBD (RR＝1.017, 95% CI: 1.004–1.030) and CVD (RR＝1.036, 95% CI: 1.012–1.061). Conclusion Both extreme high air temperature and low air temperature are associated with an increased risk of cardio and cerebrovascular mortality in the urban area of Taizhou. The effect of heat is immediate while the effect of cold has longer time lags. |
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