| 2018年12月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 孟玲,李超,汪立杰,任婧寰,靳淼,黎丹,洪志恒,涂文校,施国庆,向妮娟.2018年12月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J].疾病监测,2018,33(12):975-978. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孟玲 李超 汪立杰 任婧寰 靳淼 黎丹 洪志恒 涂文校 施国庆 向妮娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国疾病预防控制中心卫生应急中心，北京 102206 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 评估2018年12月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。 方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息，采用专家会商法，并通过视频会议形式邀请省（自治区、直辖市）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。 结果 总体上，预计12月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将较11月有所上升，可能以水痘、流行性感冒（流感）、流行性腮腺炎、其他感染性腹泻病及手足口病等事件为主。 我国内地可能将继续出现人感染禽流感散发病例。 流感活动水平将继续上升。 诺如病毒感染性腹泻病疫情将继续升高，学校仍将出现暴发疫情。 刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病疫情形势仍然严峻，不排除进一步扩散及病例输入我国的可能，但由输入病例导致大规模本地传播的可能性极低。 非职业性一氧化碳中毒将持续高发。 结论 需要对人感染禽流感、流感、非职业性一氧化碳中毒予以重点关注，对诺如病毒感染性腹泻、刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病予以一般关注。
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| 关 键 词： | 突发公共卫生事件 传染病疫情 风险评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-12-18 |
Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,December 2018 |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Public Health Emergency Center, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China2.Institute for Viral Disease Prevention and Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To assess the risks of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in December 2018. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results Generally speaking, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be higher in December than in November 2018, which might be mainly attributed to the epidemics of varicella, seasonal influenza, mumps, other infectious diarrheal diseases and hand foot and mouth disease. Sporadic cases of human infection with avian influenza virus might continue to occur. The activity of seasonal influenza would be in increase. More viral diarrhea outbreaks caused by norovirus might occur, especially in schools. The epidemic of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the Democratic Republic of Congo is still serious. The risk of further spread of EVD to China still exists, but the possibility of large scale spread caused by the imported cases is very low. The incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning would be high. Conclusion Close attention should be paid to human infection with avian influenza virus, seasonal influenza and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning, and general attention should be paid to norovirus infection, and EVD in Democratic Republic of Congo. |
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