| 季节趋势模型预测法在流行性感冒监测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 王瑞平,吴毅凌,郭晓芹,王海银,张清慧,黄中敏.季节趋势模型预测法在流行性感冒监测中的应用[J].疾病监测,2010,25(2):127-130. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王瑞平 吴毅凌 郭晓芹 王海银 张清慧 黄中敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.上海市松江区疾病预防控制中心,上海 松江 201620 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的分析上海市松江区2006-2008年国家儿童流行性感冒(流感)监测点监测数据,并应用季节趋势模型预测2009年监测点流感样病例(ILI)就诊百分比。方法应用SAS9.13统计软件和Excel软件对松江区2006-2008年国家儿童流感监测点数据进行分析。结果松江区国家儿童流感监测点ILI就诊百分比从2006年的7.27%下降到2008年的5.88%,有逐年下降的趋势。结论2009年松江区国家儿童流感监测点的ILI就诊百分比的高峰位于2009年的3-8月。疫情监测人员应密切关注流感监测点的ILI就诊百分比变化,根据每周上报的实际数,参考疫情控制图的预警线和行动线做出及时的对策和应急反应,防止流感暴发疫情。
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| 关 键 词： | 季节趋势模型 流行性感冒 监测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009-07-20 |
Application of seasonal trend model in influenza surveillance |
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| WANG Rui-ping
,
WU Yi-ling
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GUO Xiao-qin
,
WANG Hai-yin
,
ZHANG Qing-hui
,
HUANG Zhong-min.Application of seasonal trend model in influenza surveillance[J].Disease Surveillance,2010,25(2):127-130. |
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| Authors: | WANG Rui-ping WU Yi-ling GUO Xiao-qin WANG Hai-yin ZHANG Qing-hui HUANG Zhong-min |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Songjiang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Shanghai, Shanghai 201620, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To Analyze the surveillance data from national influenza surveillance site in Songjiang district in Shanghai during 2006-2008 and predict the medical care seeking rate of influenza like illness(ILI) in 2009 by using seasonal trend model.Methods The surveillance data of influenza in Songjiang during this period were analyzed by using SAS 9.13 and Excel.Results The medical care seeking rate of ILI was 7.27% in 2006,and 5.88% in 2008,the decline trend was observed.Conclusion The seasonal trend model ... |
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| Keywords: | seasonal trend model influenza surveillance |
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