| Lee-Carter模型在苏州市消化道癌症死亡分析中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋芸, 冯玥溢, 王临池, 陆艳, 舒啸尘. Lee-Carter模型在苏州市消化道癌症死亡分析中的应用[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2019, 23(1): 95-100. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.01.020 |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋芸 冯玥溢 王临池 陆艳 舒啸尘 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.215123 苏州, 苏州大学医学部公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系;;2.215004 苏州, 苏州市疾病预防控制中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 
目的 通过建立Lee-Carter模型，分析苏州市2002-2016年消化道癌症的死亡特征和变化趋势。 方法 采用苏州市死因监测点居民的消化道癌症死亡数据，计算死亡率和标化死亡率，并建立Lee-Carter死亡率预测模型，进行死亡率的趋势分析。 结果 以苏州市2012-2016年消化道癌症死亡率数据检验模型的应用效果，其平均绝对百分误差（mean absolute percentage error，MAPE）值在年龄和年份水平上分别为2.48%、4.13%，表明模型预测效果较佳；2002-2016年消化道癌症总体的死亡指数呈下降趋势，其中上消化道癌症死亡指数呈现下降趋势，下消化道癌症死亡指数呈现上升趋势；上消化道癌症死亡率是下消化道癌症死亡率的4.23倍，男性死亡率是女性死亡率的2.17倍。 结论 苏州市居民消化道癌症死亡率总体呈逐年下降趋势，其中下消化道癌症男性死亡率呈逐年上升趋势。本研究发现苏州市已出现人口老龄化现象，其医疗卫生水平逐年提高。
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| 关 键 词： | Lee-Carter模型 消化道癌症 死亡率 预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-07-31 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018-10-03 |
Application of Lee-Carter model in the prediction of mortality risk in digestive tract cancer in Suzhou |
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| JIANG Yun, FENG Yue-yi, WANG Lin-chi, LU Yan, SHU Xiao-chen. Application of Lee-Carter model in the prediction of mortality risk in digestive tract cancer in Suzhou[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2019, 23(1): 95-100. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.01.020 |
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| Authors: | JIANG Yun FENG Yue-yi WANG Lin-chi LU Yan SHU Xiao-chen |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Medical College of Soochow University, Suzhou 215123, China;;2. Suzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Suzhou 215004, China |
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| Abstract: |
Objective A Lee-Carter model was used to predict the risk and trend of mortality in the digestive tract cancer in Suzhou from 2002 to 2016. Methods The crude and standardized mortality rates were calculated based on deaths of digestive tract cancer which was identified from Suzhou chronic disease surveillance system.We used Lee-Carter model to predict the trend of mortality in digestive tract cancer. Results The effectiveness of the results forecasted by Lee-Carter model was validated in the data of digestive tract cancer mortality from 2012 to 2016 in Suzhou. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values for the model were 2.48% and 4.13% for the age and year respectively, which indicated a well accepted prediction value. The mortality index was on the down trend in overall digestive tract cancer from 2002 to 2016, among which the mortality index in upper digestive tract cancer decreased, while the mortality index in lower digestive tract cancer increased. The mortality rate of upper digestive tract cancer was 4.23 fold higher than that of lower digestive tract cancer, and mortality rate in male was 2.17 times higher than that in female. Conclusions Our study observed a downward mortality trend in digestive tract cancer overall. Notably, the male mortality rate of lower digestive tract cancer was on an upward trend. In recent years, Suzhou has been undergoing a rapid population aging with medical and health level was increasing as well. |
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| Keywords: | Lee-Carter model Digestive tract cancer Mortality Prediction |
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