河南省新型冠状病毒肺炎时空聚集性

张延炀; 肖占沛; 杨凯朝; 赵东阳; 李军; 张明瑜; 张肖肖; 马雅婷; 王长双; 王燕; 陈帅印

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.05.008

河南省新型冠状病毒肺炎时空聚集性

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.05.008

1.
450016 郑州, 河南省疾病预防控制中心免疫预防规划所
450016 郑州, 河南省疾病预防控制中心
450001 郑州, 郑州大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室

基金项目: 新型冠状病毒感染肺炎流行病学规律及防控措施研究(201100310800)

详细信息

通讯作者:
陈帅印, E-mail:sychen@zzu.edu.cn

中图分类号: R563.1;R181.1
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-03-04
- 修回日期: 2020-03-16
- 刊出日期: 2020-05-10

Study on the spatiotemporal clusters of coronavirus disease 2019 in Henan Province

1.
Immunization Planning Institute, Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhengzhou 4500J6, China
Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhengzhou 450016, China
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China

Funds: Study on the Epidemiology Characteristics and Control Measures of Coronavirus Disease 2019(201100310800)

More Information

Corresponding author: CHEN Shuai-yin, E-mail:sychen@zzu.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 目的利用地理信息系统(geographic information systems, GIS)探索河南省新型冠状病毒肺炎(coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19)空间分布规律。方法收集河南省新型冠状病毒肺炎报告数据, 建立GIS数据库, 应用空间相关分析软件(GeoDa 1.8.12)和时空扫描软件(SaTScan 9.4)对数据进行空间自相关分析和时空扫描统计分析。结果河南省COVID-19存在空间聚集性; 5个时段共探测到50个高-高聚集区; 时空扫描统计分析共识别到5个时空聚集区。结论河南省COVID-19传播风险经历了弱-强-弱的变化过程, 采取的应急防控策略不但阻止了疫情在时间上的增长, 还有效遏止了其在空间上的扩散。
- 新型冠状病毒肺炎 /
- 时空统计 /
- 空间分析 /
- 地理信息系统
Abstract: Objective To explore the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) in Henan Province using geographic information systems(GIS). Methods Epidemiological data of COVID-19 were collected, and relevant GIS data bases were established. The global and local indicators of spatial autocorrelation analysis was carried out by GeoDa 1.8.12 software, and SaTScan 9.4 software was used to describe the spatiotemporal scan statistics. Results A total of 50 regions of high-high aggregation by local spatial association analysis observed in in Henan Province; five statically significant COVID-19 clusters were identified by the retrospective spatiotemporal scan. Conclusions The risk of COVID-19 transmission in Henan Province has experienced a process: from weak to strong, then to weak. The emergency strategies not only prevent the growth in time, but also effectively prevent its spread in space.
- Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) /
- Spatiotemporal /
- Spatial autocorrelation /
- Geographic information systems

HTML全文

图 1 河南省报告新冠肺炎日报告分布图

Figure 1. Distribution of COVID-19 cases in Henan Province

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 河南省新冠肺炎的LISA聚集分布图

Figure 2. LISA cluster map of distribution of COVID-19 in Henan Province

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 河南省新冠肺炎时空聚集性分布图

Figure 3. Spatiotemporal of COVID-19 in Henan Province

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 河南省新冠肺炎GSA Moran's I指数

Table 1. The Moran's I of COVID-19 in Henan Province

时间(月/日)	Moran's I值	S_x	Z值	P值	是否聚集
1/21-1/27	0.128 4	0.033 2	4.039 6	0.003	是
1/28-2/3	0.353 1	0.035 5	10.102 8	0.001	是
2/4-2/10	0.307 0	0.035 4	8.871 3	0.001	是
2/11-2/17	0.226 0	0.034 6	6.697 4	0.001	是
2/18-2/24	0.090 7	0.033 9	2.855 4	0.020	是
1/21-2/24	0.432 8	0.034 5	12.707 2	0.001	是

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表 2 河南省新冠肺炎时空扫描统计结果

Table 2. The result of spatiotemporal scan statistics for COVID-19 in Henan Province

聚集区	时间(月/日)	中心点(经、纬度)	半径(km)	县区数(个)	病例数(例)	期望数	RR值	LLR值	P值
1	1/29-2/9	32.38N, 113.43E	154.92	38	409	113.54	4.81	269.41	< 0.001
2	1/31-2/9	34.75N, 113.61E	18.21	7	67	19.61	3.55	35.82	< 0.001
3	1/27-2/11	36.09N, 114.36E	0.00	1	23	3.26	7.17	25.37	< 0.001
4	1/30-2/3	34.24N, 116.13E	79.34	9	48	14.34	3.44	24.78	< 0.001
5	2/3-2/11	34.68N, 112.47E	4.41	2	12	1.43	8.49	15.04	0.006

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